Week 14 Key NFL Trends From NFLOne.com

Sorry that I have been away...

AT FIRST GLANCE…there are games that always look "Tasty" ATS in many publications as a "Bullet" trend only to "trap" upon further review. In 2006, The Director looked for the first time to clear the way for you to understand which team has the real "ADVANTAGE" against the "Trend."

The playoff runs continue this week.  It is hard to not to become one of the few and proud Atlanta Falcons fans here in Los Angeles.  The Atlanta Falcons, 10-5 ATS in games with a spread of +3 to -3 over the last three years, were able to turn back the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS, 1-4 as a Home Favorite of three or less points over the last three years, in Week 10, and thereby turn the page on the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS who were on a 4-0 run ATS in the previous four matchups.

With the Falcons arriving 0-6 ATS after two consecutive wins over the last three years, this one is "up for grabs."

DON’T BELIEVE THE HYPE

The Fish were just as prolific in Week Eight turning back the BUFFALO BILLS after going 0-8 ATS in their previous eight matchups in the series.  With the teams headed to Canada, the Miami Dolphins are thankful that they will not have to see Buffalo where they had not won since 2003. Last year’s to Europe for the NFL battle taking place under dark and dreary weather.

The books have definitely found a way to foil Joe Public in New York this week.  For although the NY GIANTS are 3-1-1 ATS in their last four versus the Philadelphia Eagles, they have been on a 2-0-1 run ATS in the last three, including a victory in Week 10 this year. 

Having won by an average of four points in its last two in Philadelphia, Coughlin's Giants are 2-2 ATS at Home versus Philadelphia since his arrival in New York.  13-4 ATS versus the Division and 26-9 ATS versus the Conference over the last three years, the Giants arrive as 7.5 point Favorites. With McNabb shut out of the end zone in 2007 with only 138 passing yards, this one will boil down to the Giants D.

FIRST LOOK

If you are just jumping into the 2008 season, an opening line of 9.5 was looking pretty good on Monday (and now again) in Thursday’s game between the Oakland Raiders, 1-7 ATS over the last four weeks in the last three seasons, and the SAN DIEGO CHARGERS, 11-4 ATS versus the Division over the last three years, given the Chargers 10 point margin of victory as nine point Favorites in Week Four in Oakland.

Having settled for a moment at 10.5, this contest took on an interesting dynamic for although the Chargers have only lost one game ATS in the series with the Raiders since 2002, the one loss was as a 13.5 point Favorite here in San Diego in 2006. The Chargers, 9-1 ATS as 7.5-10.5 Favorites over the last three seasons, are 1-1 ATS as 11+ point Favorites over the last three years versus the Raiders. 

Over the span in their victories they have won by an average of over 14 points at Home since 2006.  The real question is whether a Chargers team that is already looking to 2009 can deliver the same punch it had versus the Jets and Patriots.
ADVANTAGE CHARGERS

Not since 2004 have the DETROIT LIONS, 4-13 ATS as 3.5 to 9.5 point Underdogs and 5-10 ATS versus the division over the last three years, swept the Minnesota Vikings ATS, who themselves are 7-9 ATS versus the division over the last three years. Beginning in 2005, the Vikings took the reigns back on the series going 5-0-1 ATS until running into the Lions as 3.5 Favorites in Week Six.

With a total of 22 combined points in that game, the Vikings will hope after winning by 19 points per game in its last two by averaging over 30 points that they can avoid the struggle they had here in 2007; with Jackson at the helm they suffered their only SU loss over the last three years.
ADVANTAGE VIKINGS

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