NFL Picks Week 5: Kansas City Chiefs and 3 Dangerous Underdogs

In a week in which five teams are favored by a field goal or less, we should be in for plenty of close games. These three underdogs have the best shots at pulling the upset on the field in addition to covering at the betting window.

Kansas City (at Indianapolis) 

The real weakness of the Chiefs’ defense is stopping the run, and the Colts don’t exactly have the optimal offense to exploit that. On the flip side, even with Jamaal Charles gone, Dexter McCluster and Thomas Jones will both challenge a Colts run defense that’s been getting gashed (including 127 yards from LeGarrette Blount on Monday night).

With Matt Cassel coming off his best performance of the season—capped by a key fourth-quarter bomb to Dwayne Bowe—the Chiefs’ offense may finally be waking up. Even if Indy gets another monster day from Pierre Garcon, they’re no sure things to get their first win of the year.

Arizona (at Minnesota)

The Cardinals may have lost three straight, but their defense’s vulnerability (stopping the passing game) won’t be tested much by Donovan McNabb’s anemic attack. The Cardinals’ offense, on the other hand, should feast on the dreadful Vikings pass defense that allowed 260 yards to Matt Cassel last week.

Adrian Peterson will get his yards, obviously, and Beanie Wells isn’t going to run for three touchdowns again, but even with home-field advantage, Minnesota is in danger here. A big play or two out of Larry Fitzgerald could be all the Cards need to break this one open against a Vikings team that’s shown no ability to come from behind.

Tampa Bay (at San Francisco) 

With two of the league’s top 11 run defenses squaring off, this isn’t shaping up to be a fun evening for either Frank Gore or LeGarrette Blount. The Buccaneers, however, have at least enough of a passing game to keep San Francisco honest, whereas Alex Smith and his 178 yards a game aren’t going to pose much of a threat to Tampa Bay.

If Josh Freeman can just make a couple of big plays through the air, he can force the 49ers’ D to back off and open some running lanes for Blount. Even as good as Gore looked last week against the Eagles’ 30th-ranked run defense, it’s hard to see him getting the same kinds of holes on Sunday.