NFL Picks Week 5: New England Patriots and 5 Teams on Upset Watch

You have been warned, New England Patriots fans: Your team is getting too big of a point spread from the odds makers and your team is getting to much love from the media—like that's something new. Remember what happened last time your Patriots got a little too cocky with the Jets coming into town?

Yeah, this Wes Welker press conference happened.

So, your team is put on upset watch this week with arguably the same New York Jets team coming into Foxboro. 

However, the Patriots aren't just the only team this week that is feeling a little too good about themselves. 

What other fans should be on upset watch this week? Well, come on in and see for yourself. 

Houston Texans

Who: Houston Texans (-6) vs. Oakland Raiders

When: 1 p.m. ET CBS

Upset Alert (1-10, with 1 being low, 10 being high): 8

Why: These Houston Texans are coming into this game against the Raiders a little too confident. They do have one big win this year over a good team—that being the Pittsburgh Steelers—but aside from that they've beaten the winless Colts and Dolphins. That's two wins over teams that are a combined 0-8. 

The Raiders come into this game with the No. 1 rushing offense with Darren McFadden leading the charge. Expect the Raiders to pound it down the Texans' throat on Sunday from start to finish. 

Oh, and there's some receiver on Houston that's missing the game on Sunday. I'm sure that won't factor into the outcome of this game. 

New Orleans Saints

Who: New Orleans Saints (-6 1/2) vs. Carolina Panthers

When: 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Upset Alert : 7

Why: This game will be like two college kids playing Madden12. There will be a lot of passing, a lot of shot gun formations, a lot of points and zero punting. Well, not zero punting ,but you get the point. 

The Panthers are 1-3 on the year but they haven't played like a 1-3 team so far. The Saints just cannot put this team away with their explosive offense forcing the Panthers to play catch up like they do to other teams. 

Plus, earlier in the year the Panthers were up big on the defending Super Bowl champions, the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. 

The Saints should win this game, but this won't be the blowout Saints fans thought it would be when the schedule was originally released. 

New England Patriots

Who: New England Patriots (-9 1/2) vs. New York Jets

 When: 4:15 p.m. ET, CBS

Upset Alert: 10

Why: I'm just going to let Jets linebacker Bart Scott let you know why his team is going to upset the Patriots on Sunday. Take it away, Bart.

Green Bay Packers

Who: Green Bay Packers (-6) vs. Atlanta Falcons

When: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Upset Alert: 6

Why: It's hard to buy into these Atlanta Falcons as an upset threat this week. They play the defending Super Bowl champions, who destroyed them in this same building last January in the second round of the playoffs.

However, two things are working in the Falcons' favor this week. One, they are home where Atlanta's quarterback Matt Ryan is almost impossible to beat. And two, the game is on Sunday night where the Falcons upset the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this year.

The game will be a high-scoring contest like the Saints and Panthers earlier in the day. I don't think this will be an upset, but one turnover and a couple of bad bounces for the Packers and this game is Atlanta's.  

Detroit Lions

Who: Detroit Lions (-6) vs. Chicago Bears

When: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN 

Upset Alert: 9

Why: There is too much momentum for this Lions team. For a team that has been terrible since the Clinton administration, this sudden surge of attention to these Lions is going to hurt them on Monday night.

The two come-from-behind wins on the road are good. However, with the Sports Illustrated cover this week, the Monday Night Football game at home, and all the new media attention on a team that isn't used to this much exposure, it's going to make for one huge letdown.

Twitter: @tjmcaloon