2008 NFL's Playoffs Scenarios

By Derek Lofland.

From now until the end of the season, I will write a take on the NFL’s Playoff Picture.

This is how the playoff picture looks with just four games remaining.

NFC East 

The New York Giants have a three-game lead over the Cowboys with four games to play. Barring a ridiculous collapse, the Giants will be the NFC East winner and earn a first round bye.

The Cowboys are in the running for the wildcard, but will need to win at least a couple games against a schedule that features the Steelers, Giants, Ravens, and Eagles. We'll see what they are made of heading down the stretch. They have no room for error due to the strong NFC South.

The Redskins are still alive, but are behind Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Dallas. They are basically going to have to win out against Baltimore, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. That actually isn't an impossible schedule and it will be interesting to see if the Redskins can get hot for a second straight December.

Philly has a much tougher task facing the New York Giants, Cleveland, Washington, and Dallas down the stretch. They are for all intents and purposes eliminated without a 4-0 finish and a lot of help from a lot of teams in front of them.

I think the Cowboys will make the playoffs, but that it is far from a guarantee with that schedule. I think the Redskins and Eagles will finish close to .500 with the loser of their head-to-head matchup moving to the cellar of that division. I don't see the NFC East getting three bids for a third consecutive year, due to the strong play of the NFC South.

NFC South

What an unbelievable division. This has been the best division from top to bottom in the NFL and that includes the NFC and AFC East. New Orleans is virtually eliminated trailing third place Atlanta by two games. There are just too many teams to jump over at this point in the season. They had to win the Tampa Bay game on Sunday and couldn't deliver.

Carolina and Tampa Bay are in excellent shape. The winner of this week's game will be the frontrunner for the division title and the loser will be jumbled into the wildcard mix. Tampa Bay's loss to Dallas is important to remember for tiebreaking purposes.

Keep in mind the Panthers still have the Bucs, Broncos, Giants, and Saints. Seeing they lost to Tampa Bay in the first meeting, they really need the win if they want the division title, especially given their tough finish.

The Falcons have to beat the Saints this week to get into a tie with the loser of the Bucs and Panthers. They would then need to beat the Bucs the following week. That would put them at 10-4 and in nice shape with games against the Vikings and Rams. It would be hard to imagine 11-5 would not get them a wild card. The Bucs also have a nice schedule set up for them. They play the Panthers and Falcons before closing with the Chargers and Raiders at home.

Each team has advantages and it is just too early to know which way it will shake out. The Bucs have to travel for two tough divisional games, but at least they won the home matchups and they have the Chargers and Raiders at home to close the season.

The Falcons draw a nice game against the Rams and the Vikings’ Williams Brothers may be suspended by the time the Falcons play them. They also get Tampa Bay at home. Carolina has a great chance to get the No. 1 seed if they win out, because they face the Giants trailing them by only two games. While their schedule has the greatest risk, it also has the greatest reward. If they win out and the Giants lost to Dallas or Minnesota, suddenly the Panthers are the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.

In the end, I think the Falcons will be the odd team out from the NFC South. It is hard for young teams to win December games.

Look at Cleveland last year. Despite their terrific start, they lost tough games to playoff tested Pittsburgh and had a bad road loss to Cincinnati. Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Dallas all have veteran coaches with teams that have been in the playoffs in recent years. Their quarterbacks have been through December football. The Falcons have a rookie QB and rookie head coach. I think the Falcons will be a Super Bowl contender in 2009 or 2010.

They will need this setback to build on. The foundation is solid and the future is bright. However, I'm not sure they are ready for this stage this early, especially when they will probably need to win three or four games to make the playoffs. I think a 10-6 NFC South team is going to miss the playoffs and the Falcons may very well be that team.

NFC North 

This actually isn't a very complicated division. The Lions are eliminated due to their 0-12 record. The Packers are virtually eliminated. They are 0-5 against the AFC South and Dallas meaning they have absolutely no tiebreakers for the wildcard.

Their only hope is to go 4-0 down the stretch, which would guarantee they tie the Bears with a division sweep tiebreaker and have the Vikings go 2-2 or 1-3 down the stretch, depending on how the other tiebreakers would shakeout.

These are all very unlikely scenarios seeing the Packers are 3-7 in their last 10 games and the Vikings are 7-3 in their last 10 games. However, anything is possible.

That leaves the Bears and the Vikings as the most likely to emerge from the NFC North with neither setting up well for a wildcard due to the strength of the NFC East and South.

There are a couple things to consider. The Vikings are facing possible four game suspensions of the Williams brothers under the NFL drug policy. If that happens, the Vikings will be at a huge disadvantage without the heart of their stellar run defense. After their game against the 0-12 Lions, the Vikings play the Cardinals, Falcons, and NY Giants; all of which could result in losses, even if the Vikings have the Williams Brothers.

The Packers draw the Texans, Jaguars, Bears, and Lions. The Bears draw the Jags, Saints, Packers, and Texans. The Packers clearly have the easiest schedule of the three remaining contenders.

The Vikings are still the frontrunner for the division title. They control their own destiny. The loser of the Bears and Packers game will be eliminated from the playoffs with that loss. The winner has an outside shot if they can finish the season 4-0 and the Vikings can collapse at the end.

NFC West

This division is pretty simple. If Arizona wins one more game or San Francisco loses one more game, the Cardinals clinch the NFC West. This is a one-bid division that will eventually go to Arizona. Keep an eye on the Minnesota vs. Arizona matchup in a couple weeks. If Minnesota can hold onto the NFC North that game could decide if Arizona is the No. 3 or No. 4 seed.

Read the AFC Outlook >>>