NFL Picks Week 5: Why Indianapolis Colts Get Their 1st Win in 2011 vs. Chiefs

This is the week the Indianapolis Colts get their first win.

No, really, this is the week.

The 1-3 Kansas City Chiefs come to town and are riding high after snagging their first win of the year against the 0-4 Minnesota Vikings.  

Chiefs QB Matt Cassel had his first respectable game of the year, yet still got into a verbal altercation with head coach Todd Haley. The team is heading nowhere fast, and without the elusive and speedy Jamaal Charles, the run offense went from being the top-ranked unit in 2010 to simply average this season.

The upbeat spirit of last year is gone and the players already have the look of a team that knows it has a lame duck head coach.

In other words, there is little reason for hope in Kansas City.

The Colts are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that saw them blow a seven-point lead multiple times.

It’s the second consecutive week that a game has fallen out of their grasp against a formidable opponent; last week it was the Steelers.

With perennial backup Curtis Painter in charge, it’s obvious the Colts want to focus on Joseph Addai and the running game. That’s a great idea considering the Chiefs surrender 130 yards on the ground per game, 26th in the league.

Painter looked much more comfortable in the pocket on Monday and made a few throws that almost made you forget about Peyton Manning (OK, not really). The more time he has to practice and prepare as the starter the more comfortable he will become.

Considering the Colts defense, which is largely the same unit from a year ago aside from a few injuries, held the Chiefs to nine points in ’10, despite KC having Charles.

Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are determined to win a game by themselves and should devour the Chiefs O-line for a second consecutive year.

Sure, Painter won’t put up gaudy numbers, but he’ll move the chains, keep the clock running and get the ball to Reggie Wayne and the rest of his terrific playmakers.

Expect the defense to set up one touchdown and the Colts offense to take care of the rest.

Prediction: Colts 20, Chiefs 17