NFL Picks Week 4: Denver Broncos and 3 Underdogs Worth a Strong Look

Week 4 is chalk full of games with huge spreads.

Despite the fact we only have three weeks of game to go off, Vegas feels quite confident in pushing the limit on some of these lines. Here are three spreads that are too high, with teams that haven’t gotten the chance to really show how good they can be just yet:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

Denver Broncos +12.5 @ Green Bay Packers

The line used to be 14, which means the betting public is pouring in the money on the Broncos, but the value for Denver is still there.

The Broncos may be 1-2, yet their two losses are by a grand total of six points. QB Kyle Orton isn’t a winner, but he gives his team a shot in the fourth quarter.

Denver is quietly playing excellent defense and will be welcoming back CB Champ Bailey and LB Elvis Dumervil who have missed the last two weeks due to injury.

John Fox always has disciplined teams that don’t make a ton of mistakes, so expect the Broncos to keep this competitive into the fourth quarter.

Key Trends:

Packers are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in Week 4.

San Francisco 49ers +9 @ Philadelphia Eagles

I know it’s tough to bet on the 49ers, but there is a few good reasons this week.

The defense is quietly one of the best in the league and QB Alex Smith isn’t turning the ball over. Two recipes that will keep San Fran in most games this season.

Expect them to bottle up RB LeSean McCoy and force a banged-up QB Michael Vick into a lot of third-and-long situations.

Anticipate the strong 49ers run game to eat up a large chunk of clock and keep this game to within a TD before the Eagles ultimately prevail.

Key Trends:

49ers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall.

Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Indianapolis Colts +10 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is good, but are they 10 points better than a frisky Colts team?

The Indy D proved they can single handily keep their team in a game despite the horrific offense. They are more than capable of scoring off a turnover.

The underrated offensive line was on full display as RB Joseph Addai and the rest of the running game finally came alive.

Don’t expect Indy to win, but they won’t be getting blown out on Monday night either.

Key Trends:

Buccaneers are 0-3-2 ATS in their last five Monday games.

Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Monday games.

Colts are 13-3-2 ATS vs a team with a winning record.