New England Patriots: Forecasting Chad Ochocinco's Future with the Team

Through the first three weeks of the 2011 NFL season, it's been proven that Chad Ochocinco's Twitter account has little to do with his presence in the headlines. In fact, the prolific pass-catcher has become a much-less-prolific tweeter, with 597 of them in his two months with the team.

Instead of making headlines for boisterous behavior, he's garnering attention for his poor play, specifically against the Bills in the Patriots's loss on Sunday.

Of his drop on a wide open deep pass in the fourth quarter, Ochocinco said, "It happens. It's football." 

On whether or not it was killing him that he had a bad game against the Bills, Ochocinco said, "Is it killing me? No. It was good. Mentally, it was really good. I knew all my (stuff). Now, that felt good. That’s step one. It’s just got to come quicker, (so I can) come away with everything that comes my way."

Anything Ochocinco says at this point will have no impact on his future with the team. 

What will have an impact, however, is what he has done thus far. 

Positives

It's easy to focus on the bad when most of the good comes in one game.

Ochocinco's first reception of the season came in the final two minutes of the first half against the Dolphins, and his first reception at Gillette Stadium was a 15-yarder that set up New England's first touchdown of the game. He came up big against the Chargers a second time, this time on a 30-yard reception up the middle when the Patriots were backed up on their own 13-yard line.

Those are high pressure situations, and it says something that Tom Brady and Bill O'Brien are looking to get him involved when it matters.

From a character perspective, Ochocinco has stayed quiet since arriving in New England, and continually referenced being with the Patriots like being in "Heaven." He kept his nose in the playbook, and his fingers off the keyboard. He also says he's picking up the offense, and feeling more comfortable from a mental aspect, even if things haven't clicked physically just yet.

Negatives

Ochocinco's first snap of the season came midway through the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins. Brady's pass went to Rob Gronkowski for 41 yards, but was wiped away due to an illegal formation...on Ochocinco. Not a terrific start to the season. He bounced back from that one later in the game, but the turbulence hasn't come to a complete stop yet.

With Aaron Hernandez out of the Bills game due to an MCL sprain, Ochocinco had an opportunity to make an impact with a good game. It wasn't good. It wasn't even mediocre. After a decent-at-best outing against the Chargers, Ochocinco came plummeting right back to Earth just like the pass that went right through his hands.

Yes, drops happen, but they've been happening since training camp. "It happens" is a better excuse when it's the exception and not the norm.

None of that even touches on the poor route running which was the ultimate cause for one of Brady's interceptions. This could be part of the mental aspect not translating in a physical way, but weren't route-running and football intelligence the two biggest things he was supposed to bring to the table?

Stats may be for losers, but this one's hard to ignore: Brady's passer rating when targeting Ochocinco is currently 49.1, as he is 5-for-9 for 87 yards and one interception. The Patriots are predicated on Brady's efficiency, and it's clear that the 12-to-85 hook-up hasn't been efficient thus far.

Outside circumstances

Wes Welker, Deion Branch and Rob Gronkowski are the three players that Brady clearly enjoys throwing to the most. Anyone watching the game could tell you that, but the three account for 87 targets out of 133 throws by Brady. That's over 64 percent between them, and doesn't leave a whole lot of room for other guys.

By virtue, there will be players whose role is a bit smaller in the offense. Because of the system, that will even change from week to week. Branch, who has been targeted 22 times total this season, was only targeted three times against the Bills.

Each week will have its star, and Ochocinco's time could be coming. The Raiders loom in the immediate future, but it's hard not to look at the Jets game as one where he could potentially have an impact. His presence on the field will draw either Antonio Cromartie or Darrelle Revis, and will open things up for other receivers.

Likewise, that seems to be the perfect situation for him, as he was brought in for his capability of winning those one-on-one match-ups.

Conclusion

One thing that remains unspoken is the impact Ochocinco's continued playing time has on the development of Taylor Price. The second-year receiver had a solid preseason and training camp. He had a breakout game against the Jaguars in the first game of the preseason with five catches, 105 yards and a touchdown.

On the one hand, you have a guy who has a history as one of the premier pass-catchers in the league, who only a few days ago hit the two-month mark of even being in the system. He may still need time.

On the other hand, that same guy has done more to hurt the team over the first three weeks of the season than he has to help them, and he's hindering the development of younger talent. Time may not be his side.

His role could become pivotal in one of the upcoming games. That being said, another couple of games like the ones he's had thus far could spell his end in New England.

This is the exact circumstance everyone was waiting for. We all wanted to know what would happen when Ochocinco had a bad game, wasn't targeted much, and the team lost. Those things all happened against the Bills. It's up to Ochocinco how he responds to it, but he may not have much of a choice if he wants to stay in heaven.

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter @erikfrenz.