College Basketball: Legit Odds on Each Top 25 Team Winning the 2012 Tournament
The 2011-12 college basketball season is only a few months off, so naturally we are already trying to predict the winner of the 2012 NCAA tournament. The final game of the tournament is only six-and-a-half months away, so we obviously need to start thinking about who could win it all.
Preseason rankings and odds usually don't matter, and the Connecticut Huskies proved that by starting the 2010-11 season unranked, but winning the NCAA tournament last season.
While preseason odds are hardly ever accurate, I will make these as accurate as possible. These are legit odds for the nation's 25 best teams.
25. Wichita State 200-1
1 of 25The Wichita State Shockers won the NIT tournament last season, and they now turn their attention to the NCAA tournament.
The Shockers still have four of their top five scorers from last season, including 7'0" big man Garrett Stutz. They also return Toure’ Murry, a shooting guard who was a top scorer and led the team with 3.4 assists per game last season.
Even though they are a mid-major, this team is legit.
24. Missouri 200-1
2 of 25The Missouri Tigers will be led by guards Phil Pressey and Marcus Denmon and forwards Laurence Bowers and Ricardo Ratliffe.
This was a fast team last season, utilizing their speed and stamina to press ruthlessly and run an up-tempo offense. They looked great when they ran, but they were terrible in the half-court set.
This team returns most of its key contributors. The only senior they lost was Justin Stafford, who averaged 6.4 points and 3.7 rebounds per game.
If this team can figure out how to slow things down then they will be great, but that's a big 'if.'
23. Butler 200-1
3 of 25The Butler Bulldogs have lost Gordon Heyward, Matt Howard and Shelvin Mack over the last two years, but they are still a good team. Coach Brad Stevens is looking to return to the Championship Game for the third straight year, and this time he wants to win.
Ronald Nored and Andrew Smith will lead a team with six freshmen on the team. Even though they lost three of their top four scorers from last season (Howard, Mack and Shawn Vanzant), this will be a good team.
Brad Stevens is an excellent coach, and he has already brought two underrated teams (including last year's No. 8-seed) to the Championship Game, and his Butler team should not be taken lightly.
22. Cincinnati 200-1
4 of 25This Cincinnati team showed flashes of brilliance last season, but were not consistent at all. They were an incredible defensive team who held Georgetown to only 48 points, and they return their top four scorers.
This team will be led by Yancy Gates, Dion Dixon, Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright. These four averaged a total of 42.1 points per game last season, and in their low-scoring games that was a lot. With more experience, this is a dangerous team.
If the Bearcats get hot during the tournament then they have then potential to win it all.
21. Arizona 200-1
5 of 25Sure, the Arizona Wildcats have lost their star forward Derrick Williams, but that's about it. Williams was a key player for the team, but the return of the other four starters, and the addition of shooting guard Nick Johnson will definitely help.
Point guard Josiah Turner will lead this team next season, and their four great starters joined by their excellent recruiting class will give coach Sean Miller a great team.
Look for these Wildcats to be a challenge for any opponent in the NCAA tournament.
20. Michigan 100-1
6 of 25The Michigan Wolverines are a great team, and if you don't believe it ask the Tennessee Volunteers, who they thrashed 75-45.
Led by Tim Hardaway Jr. this team has a lot of potential with four returning starters. While point guard Darius Morris left for the NBA, the Wolverines still have a lot of talent, and when they are playing well they can beat any team in the nation.
19. Alabama 100-1
7 of 25The Alabama Crimson Tide were one win away from winning the NIT tournament last season. While they were snubbed from the Big Dance itself, this team returns their three best players.
Led by JaMychal Green (16.0 points and 7.8 rebounds per game), Tony Mitchell (15.4 points, 7.1 boards per game) and Trevor Releford (team-high 3.4 assists per game), this is an experienced and dangerous team.
18. Texas A&M 100-1
8 of 25The Texas A&M Aggies are a strong defensive team, and they will rely on their ability to shut down opponents to win them games.
While the Aggies have Khris Middleton to lead their offensive attack, they will need more contributions from everyone if they want to make a run in the NCAA tournament.
17. Marquette 100-1
9 of 25This Marquette team will also rely on their defense to keep them in games. While they have a decent offense, they must rely heavily on their shooting guard.
Darius Johnson-Odom is a great scorer, and his average of roughly 16 points per game is bound to go up now that he is a year older and more experienced.
This team is going to live and die with their offensive production, and they will be a team to watch in the Big Dance.
16. Xavier 100-1
10 of 25The Xavier Musketeers resemble Final Four teams Kentuky and Connecticut (who won it all) last season.
Led by elite point guard Tu Holloway, the Musketeers need him to average 25 points per game, and big man Kenny Frease will become Holloway's best friend. Just like Brandon Knight and Kemba Walker last season, led by a point guard, this team is going to do big things.
15. Kansas 80-1
11 of 25The Kansas Jayhawks have lost a lot of talent to the NBA, including the Morris twins and Josh Selby. However, coach Bill Self has landed yet another strong recruiting class, and this young team could be special.
The key for their success will be whether or not senior Tyshawn Taylor emerges as a star. He certainly has the potential to do so, but after averaging under 10 points and five assists per game last season he has some fans worried.
This team is going to be pretty streaky, based on Taylor's play, but they could get hot in March and win it all.
14. Baylor 80-1
12 of 25The Baylor Bears men's basketball team is hoping to get into the spotlight after the Baylor women's team has had success.
Led by a surprising return-player in Perry Jones, this could be a good team. Jones will be joined by Quincy Acy (their leading big man from last season) and Quincy Miller (a great recruit).
Despite the loss of LaceDarius Dunn, this is going to be an excellent team. We've seen how much good guards can help an NCAA tournament team, and it will be interesting to see how Jones does.
13. UCLA 80-1
13 of 25Ben Howland's UCLA team is big and lengthy. While some teams may rely on quick guards, this team is going to get the ball inside to their big men,
Led by transfers David and Travis Wear, and Reeves Nelson, the Bruins will have a great frontcourt. Also, if PG Lazeric Jones can step up and try to help replace Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee, then this will be a well-balanced team.
One of the best teams in the Pac-12, this UCLA team has the potential to win it all this year.
12. Wisconsin 80-1
14 of 25Despite losing leading scorer Jon Leuer, this Wisconsin team is very talented.
Led by PG Jordan Taylor, who averaged over 18 points, 4.5 assists and four rebounds per game last season, this team is going to be a tough matchup in the NCAA tournament.
Stellar guards go a long way in the Big Dance, and Taylor is just that. Look for this team to make a good run.
11. Pittsburgh 60-1
15 of 25It seems like the Pittsburgh Panthers are always a top team. After losing Brad Wanamaker and Gary McGhee, however, we thought they might not be as good for once. Well, that's not the case.
Led by SG Ashton Gibbs and freshman center Khem Birch, this team has a solid core. They will rely on these two to be superstars, but that's not asking much from Gibbs (averaged 17 points per game) or Birch (one of the best recruits in the class).
Another talented team under Jamie Dixon, the Panthers have a good chance to win it all.
10. Florida 40-1
16 of 25We've finally reached the top 10, and these teams all have a very good chance of winning the NCAA tournament. with their odds all being 40-1 or better, these teams are a tier above the 200-1 teams that began this list.
The first team in the top 10 is the Florida Gators. This team has a lot of returning talent in Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton, and they are bringing in sensational freshman Bradley Beal.
If Patric Young can step up his game in the tournament, then this team should be able to make a Final Four run.
9. Memphis 40-1
17 of 25The Memphis Tigers were a freshman-heavy team last season, but almost everyone is back for another season.
They showed their youth at times, turning the ball over way too often to be highly successful, but an more experienced team should be able to cut down on turnovers.
The Tigers almost upset Elite Eight-bound Arizona last season. This season they will rely on SG Will Barton to help them beat top-notch teams like the Wildcats from last season.
8. Louisville 35-1
18 of 25The Louisville Cardinals will rely heavily on PG Peyton Siva. The team plays a tight defense, and they will have a balanced offensive attack, but Siva will be the key in each.
Siva is a hard-nosed defensive player who will shutdown opposing point guards. He averaged over two steals per game last season, and he looks to build on that.
Siva will also be the key on the offensive end of the floor because his averages of over 10 points and five assists per game will be key with the departure of go-to-scorer Preston Knowles.
This team will live and die with Siva, and if he gets hot before the Big Dance watch out.
7. Vanderbilt 25-1
19 of 25The Vanderbilt Commodores are a well-balanced team, led by superstar SG John Jenkins.
Jenkins led the SEC in scoring with nearly 20 points per game last season. He is an excellent scoring threat, but he is not alone by any means.
Jenkins will be helped by PG Brad Tinsley in the backcourt, who averaged over four-and-a-half assists per game last season. He also has a beat in the middle with 6'11" forward Festus Ezeli inside.
This is a good team from top-to-bottom, and they are going to be one of the top teams in the tournament.
6. Duke 14-1
20 of 25Mike Krzyzewski has lost his three best players in Kyrie Irving, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, but he still has about a dozen good players.
He has phenom Austin Rivers coming in, and he also has Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins in the backcourt. He also has all three Plumlee brothers inside, and Ryan Kelly, who looks like he's ready to break out.
This team has every type of player you would ever need, and Coach K is going to have a field day coming up with the best five players for each situation.
The Blue Devils have the potential to grab another No. 1 seed in this year's NCAA tournament, and they should definitely go farther than the Sweet Sixteen this time.
5. Syracuse 14-1
21 of 25This year's Syracuse Orange team has the ability to utilize Jim Boehim's incredible 2-3 zone once more. Any team that can follow his scheming is bound to be a good team.
Even with center Rick Jackson gone, this year's team will have Kris Joseph (14.4 points per game) and Scoop Jardine (5.8 assists per game), and sophomore Fab Melo (who is 7'0") to fill the void in the paint.
Another year, another successful Syracuse team...anything else new?
4. Ohio State 10-1
22 of 25The Ohio State Buckeyes are still going to be a top 5 team this year. Jon Diebler may have left, but the National Freshman of the Year Jared Sullinger has not.
Sullinger led the team in points and rebound last year, averaging 17.2 points and 10.1 rebounds per game. He was the best player on a team that 34-3, and he is going to be even better this season. Sullinger has William Buford and Aaron Craft to support him, and they form a good core.
Thad Matta and the Buckeyes are going to have another great year, and they are looking for a longer tournament run this year.
3. Connecticut 10-1
23 of 25Kemba Walker who? This Connecticut team is moving on, and they already have plans for another National Championship.
Jim Calhoun has brought in one of the best recruiting classes in the nation, including wingman DeAndre Daniels and Andre Drummond, who most experts thought would be the top recruit in the 2012 class. On top of that, the team also has Jeremy Lamb, who has the potential to play almost as well as Walker, and big man Alex Oriakhi.
The Huskies are going to be a great team again, and this time the college basketball world will know that before April.
2. Kentucky 7-1
24 of 25John Calipari really knows how to make up for lost talent. After losing three starters, including Brandon Knight, he has brought in four elite recruits who will lead this team.
Terrence Jones is back for his sophomore season after averaging 16.5 points and 8.9 rebounds per game last season, and he will be a key contributor on this team. Calipari has four recruits in the ESPN Top 20, including Anthony Davis (No. 1), Michael Gilchrist (No. 4), Marquis Teague (No. 4) and Kyle Wiltjer (No. 19).
Calipari has another great, young team, courtesy of the one-and-done rule, considering the fact that three of these recruits would be in the NBA already.
1. North Carolina 5-1
25 of 25The North Carolina Tar Heels are easily the best team in the nation. Trying to recover from their loss in the tournament to No. 4-seeded Kentucky, this team will be favored to win the NCAA tournament.
Led by their three returning big men (Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, John Henson), their point guard Kendall Marshall, and two elite recruits in freshmen P.J. Hairston and James Michael McAdoo, the Tar Heels easily have five future lottery picks.
Coach Roy Williams has seven superstars, and this team could probably beat a few NBA teams (Minnesota Timberwolves, Cleveland Cavaliers). North Carolina is going to have a balanced game, and Marshall is going to get the ball to everyone.
No matter how you try to beat them, these Tar Heels are ready to regain their seat on top of the college basketball world.

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