Fantasy Football Week 3: The Injury Plan (Starring Michael Vick and Tony Romo)
Dealing with injuries is one of the most important duties of a fantasy owner. You have to decide whether or not to start a player who is playing hurt. You need to have a backup option ready to go on your bench.
That's not all of it.
You also need to evaluate your team and your opponent. How are you set up this week? Is your team good? Do your players have good matchups this week? Look at your opponent's team. How worried are you? Does he have a bunch of studs with nice matchups? Or is he struggling with injuries on what was already a below-average team?
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If you feel like you're in the driver's seat in your matchup, it probably behooves you to play it a bit safer. Take the guaranteed points.
Nothing is ever certain in fantasy football, except for the fact that taking a "zero" from a player cannot ever help you win. If you feel that all you need from a particular roster position is a couple of points, then just find a player who you feel can guarantee you a handful of points.
Now, if you feel that you're an underdog this week, you're swinging for the fences. You're gambling that as long as Tony Romo or Mike Vick plays, they're going to produce. And if they wind up under-performing or not playing, well you were probably going to lose anyway. This does follow the "Don't Sit Your Studs" logic. You draft a player because you want all of his total fantasy points for the season. When you sit a "stud" you run the risk of missing out on one of his huge weeks which can often account for 10%-20% of a player's total fantasy points for the season. That 10%-20% is the difference between a "stud" and a slightly above-average fantasy player.
Let's take a look at the major injury questions facing fantasy owners in Week 3:
TONY ROMO (Probable - Ribs)
Romo is expected to play. But he will be without Miles Austin.
Dez Bryant and Felix Jones could also both miss the game. Even if both play, they won't be operating at full strength. When you add this to the fact that Romo will have to wear a constricting Kevlar vest, there are some serious warning flags.
If you have another option at QB, I'm using it this week. Not to mention the fact that Romo plays on Monday night, so if he was a last-minute scratch, your only options are Rex Grossman or Jon Kitna. If you've got Cam Newton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kevin Kolb or Mark Sanchez, I'm starting them over Romo.
MIKE VICK (Questionable - Concussion)
Vick is expected to start vs. the Giants. Concussions are a tricky condition, so you need to monitor Vick's status right up until kickoff (Sunday, 1 PM EST).
The Giants have a fearsome defensive line and they will pound Vick into the ground. They also have a secondary with more holes than Pinehurst. Vick could post his biggest passing totals of the season this week. If Vick starts for the Eagles, he should be starting for you. Should Vick NOT play I would have no problem starting Mike Kafka, over Eli Manning even.
ARIAN FOSTER (Doubtful - Hamstring)
Ben Tate will get the start vs. the Saints on Sunday. The Texans are going to to throttle back on Foster, giving him a week (or two, or three) to fully heal. It's unknown if Foster will return to his "feature back" role even when healthy.
There's almost no chance Foster plays this week. But if he does, I'm still benching him and starting Ben Tate. Tate should start in all leagues this week.
STEVEN JACKSON (Questionable - Quad)
We're thinking Jackson is still a week away. He came closer than we thought to playing in Week 2. But the Rams host the Ravens in Week 3. That's a tough matchup, even for a fully healthy Jackson.
Here's what I'm doing: If Jackson practices Friday, I'm starting him unless I really feel I have better options. If he doesn't practice Friday, I'm not starting Jackson. Even if he winds up playing. Nor am I starting Cadillac Williams if he plays or Jerious Norwood if he's the last man standing. I would start Ben Tate over Steven Jackson this week.
FELIX JONES (Probable - Shoulder)
Jones definitely separated his shoulder in Week 2. He did return the game and attempted to play through the injury. The Cowboys expect Jones to again play through the injury this week.
I'm avoiding Jones if at all possible this week.
He didn't look good after returning last week. And one good hit to the shoulder could knock him out of the game at any point. Not to mention if both Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are out, the Redskins defense will key on Jones.
If you've got no other options in a PPR league, I guess you can start Jones. But there's probably better options this week. If Jones sits I'm not bothering with DeMarco Murray or Tashard Choice this week. But I would pick up Murray and stash him on my bench.
KNOWSHON MORENO (Probable - Hamstring)
Moreno returned to practice and should play a role on offense vs. the Titans. But, the Broncos backfield may have swung to a split in favor of Willis McGahee.
The presence of Moreno makes both of them risky starts this week. I'm not starting Moreno if I can at all help it. Maybe in deep PPR leagues. McGahee could still be a decent flex option in standard leagues because he works at the goal line. The Titans defense is better than you think.
DEZ BRYANT (Questionable - Quad)
Bryant missed Week 2. In his absence, Miles Austin went CRAZY. If Bryant plays in Week 3, he could go equally nuts.
This one is pretty simple, if Bryant starts, you're starting him.
If he doesn't, I'm avoiding all Cowboys not named Jason Witten (and the Cowboys DST) this week. I'm not even bothering to pickup Kevin Ogletree or Jesse Holley in anything but an incredibly deep league.
MARIO MANNINGHAM (Questionable - Concussion)
Manningham is looking very iffy to play against the Eagles this week. And that should be fine as far you're concerned.
It makes your life easier, because the Eagles cornerbacks have been as good as advertised.
You beat the Eagles defense by running the ball and featuring your tight end. Manningham probably would've been a poor start this week anyway. So, even if he plays, keep him on your bench. I'm not bothering with Victor Cruz or Brandon Stokley.
BRANDON LLOYD (Probable - Groin)
Lloyd was somewhat of a surprise scratch in Week 2 and should be good to go this week. If you have him, you're starting him.
The Broncos are going to have to throw the ball. You saw Eric Decker flourish when Lloyd was out last week. Look for Lloyd to immediately regain his spot as Kyle Orton's favorite target. Lloyd should be fine as a WR2 in Week 3.
Temper your expectations for Eric Decker with Lloyd back.
ANTONIO GATES (Questionable - Foot)
The news that Gates might have aggravated his foot injury comes as no surprise after his zero-catch performance in Week 2. Gates will be a full-blown game-time decision this week. Gates has always performed well even when playing hurt. But the Chargers face the Chiefs this week. If the Chargers get out to an early lead, it's possible they limit Gates' snaps. If you own a backup like Gronkowski, Fred Davis or Tony Gonzalez, I would seriously consider using them this week over Gates. Otherwise, if Gates plays you're starting him on your fantasy team.
No matter what, remember that it's only Week 3. Your most likely not even 25% of the way through your fantasy football regular season after this week. There's tons of time left—both for you to improve your team or to screw it up. Be more like Robert Kraft and be less like Mike Brown. At least that's the plan, right?
You can follow me on Twitter. (Shoes & Shirt are optional, take that Burger King! It's not my fault all I had were golf shoes!)

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