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Raiders vs Broncos Monday Night: Is Willis McGahee Smart Fantasy Football Start?

Andrea HangstJun 4, 2018

While running back Willis McGahee is listed as the backup to Knowshon Moreno on the Denver Broncos' depth chart, Broncos offensive coordinator Mike McCoy says that he has not named a starter for tonight's contest against the Oakland Raiders.

Instead, he is planning on going with the "hot hand" approach, saying:

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"They're going to play, and if one of them is tired, the other one is going in. Then we'll just keep them going. Both of them are going to play plenty of snaps, but we're not going to worry about counting snaps with them. If someone is in there playing and they're on a roll, then they're going to stay in. When they need to come out, then they're going to come out."

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So what does this mean for those fantasy owners with McGahee on their rosters, deciding whether to start him tonight (or even in the future)?

One way to examine this situation is to look at the Houston Texans in their Week 1 game against the Indianapolis Colts. With star running back Arian Foster out for the game, they used the "hot hand" strategy to work in carries for both backups Ben Tate and Derrick Ward.

Though Tate entered the game as the No. 2 to Ward, he quickly surpassed Ward's offensive production and thus wound up with the bulk of the carries (24 to Ward's 11).

This is a similar situation for the Broncos: McGahee is listed as the No. 2 behind Moreno, but could easily get the greater number of carries tonight.

Moreno has had injury issues while with the Broncos, and McGahee performed impressively in the preseason, with 48 yards on 17 attempts and two touchdowns and two receptions for 33 yards and a touchdown.

While it is a risky fantasy football move to start a running back with no clear plans for him to get a set percentage of the night's carries, it can also pay off in a big way.

The best maneuver would be to wait; perhaps your starting backs on the week have already played and there's no way you can put McGahee in tonight. This gives you a good opportunity to see how well he plays without him being fettered by a firm No. 2 designation by his team.

If he breaks out tonight, it is more likely that he will see increased carries next week. If he falters, then you know that he's not the strongest running back on the Broncos and you can bench or release him as your team's needs require.

If you must start McGahee tonight, then you will likely end up in better shape with him in a "hot hand" rotation than as the designated backup. The only risk is if that hand goes cold, his snaps will diminish in turn.

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