Toronto Blue Jays: Henderson Alvarez or Luis Perez? Who You Got?

With questions remaining from my pitching forecast for 2012, new developments have occurred that could reshape the Blue Jays starting rotation.

Henderson Alvarez has been dynamic in his last two starts. (14 IP 7 H 0 ER 1 BB 9 K)

Moreover, Luis Perez has slowed down slightly from his stellar start while in the rotation. (10 IP 11 H 7 ER 7 BB 10 K)

Could this just be a hot/cold spell rather than who is more skilled/deserving of the rotation spot?

Initially I want to say that hitters do not have a book on Henderson (yet they don't have much of one on Perez either) so that argument could be a push. Let us look at how they got here.

Perez had been in the minors since 2006. He got his first call up on April 15.

Alvarez first signed with the Jays in mid-August 2008. He has moved up the ranks rather quickly and made his MLB debut on August 9.

Perez is 26 years old. Alvarez is 21.

I don’t think anyone would argue that at this point Henderson is the bigger prospect. Yet the question arises, is he ready to absorb a full season of major league hitters?

In his last two starts Henderson has been dynamic. The movement on his fastball has made Adrian Gonzalez look foolish and he has great command of his pitches. If he continues to pitch at this level it would be hard to not give him a shot next season. Heck we have seen what 22-year-old Michael Pineda has been able to accomplish this season.

I worry about the endurance and stamina of the young, wiry starter. Unlike Pineda who stands 6’7" and 260 pounds, Alvarez is 6'1" 175. Moreover, Pineda has clearly slowed down (35 ER in his last 51 IP; 6.18 ERA) over the last two months, so it would be hard to expect Henderson to last through such a gruelling season. Henderson has never thrown that many innings in his career so he would have an innings cap, as well.

Perez starts on Tuesday so maybe once we see him pitch at home against the BoSox and against one of the top lefties in the league (Jon Lester) we will have a better indication of what he can do at this level.

At this point I would take Perez in the rotation over Henderson. Henderson has not had much time in the minors so I think he should receive some more seasoning before we possibly wreck his career or arm. He has a higher ceiling and more dynamic stuff yet he could be great and the Jays have many options, so there is no need to rush him until he and the team are ready to blossom.

His success could make this an easy answer—just like with Jordan Staal, but was that the best decision?