NFL's Week 12 Pick'em: Why Will the Titans Lose?

By Derek Lofland

Week 11 was by far the strangest week of the season.  A tie happened for the first time in six years, a key player didn't know ties existed, two top run-defending teams were run over, and a referee got a replay call incorrect not affecting the outcome, but those who bet in Vegas.  If Week 12 ends up being as zany as Week 11, we are in for a treat.

After an 11-4 record in week 11, my 2008 overall record stands at 105-54. That is a .660 percentage clip.

New York Jets (7-3) at Tennessee (10-0)

I think this is a game where the matchups really play into the Jets' favor. The Jets are fourth in the NFL at stopping the run, which is the staple of the Titans offense. While the Jets are woeful against the pass coming in at 28th, the Titans rank 25th in the NFL in that department.

I don’t think the Titans have the weapons to expose that weakness, although Collins has been playing pretty good ball the last few weeks. He did expose the Bears and Jaguars in recent weeks.

The Jets have had three extra days off, are playing their best football, and are coming in with momentum off a gigantic win over New England. I think the Titans are the best team in the AFC and will probably represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. However, I don’t think they will run the table this season, and the Jets have a team that is going to give them problems. Jets in another close win.

Winner: New York Jets

New England (6-4) at Miami (6-4)

The winner of this game will be no worse than second place and a game back of the Jets. Both teams also need this win to...keep pace in the wildcard.

I know the Dolphins destroyed the Patriots in New England, and that would be the logical pick. As much as has been made out of Pennington’s rebirth, he has eight touchdowns and five picks this season.

The teams that have beaten New England have scored 38, 30, 18, and 34. Most weeks you still have to score a bundle of points to beat the Patriots. While the Dolphins did score 38 points in their first victory, they haven’t been over 30 points since that win back in Week Three. Ronnie Brown scoring five touchdowns was an abnormality. I don’t expect that to happen again.

Matt Cassel is playing much better since Week Three, and I look for Bill Belichick to use the extra three days of preparation to go down to Miami and get a hard-fought win.

Winner: New England

New York Giants (9-1) at Arizona (7-3)

Even though their records are close, this is a pretty easy game for me to pick. The Cardinals have played close games with San Francisco and Seattle. The Giants have won those games with ease. The Cardinals have played good teams before this season, such as Carolina and New York Jets. They lost both those games.

As good as the Cardinals' passing attack has been this season, they are partially a product of playing in the worst division in football.

The Giants seem to play a brutal game every week. They have the more experienced team, the more battle tested team, and the more physical team. The Cardinals rank seventh against the run, which is good, but we saw how far that got Baltimore.

I think the Giants run the ball well and mix in a good passing day with Eli. I think Warner gets a lot of yards and touchdowns, but also a couple picks as the Giants go on the road and improve to 10-1.

Winner: New York Giants

Carolina (8-2) at Atlanta (6-4)

This is a huge divisional game. If the Panthers win, they will have a season sweep over Atlanta and a three-game lead (four with tiebreaker) with just five games to play. At 9-2, that will almost guarantee them no worse than a wild card spot.

The Falcons, on the other hand, suffered a bad loss to Denver and now have to host the second-best team in the NFL. It has been a good season for Atlanta, one that I don’t think anyone saw coming.

This team is poised to be a Super Bowl contender within two years if they can continue to add pieces around the solid nucleus in place. However, Carolina has been through these wars before and is in much better shape to win this game. Carolina goes on the road and continues to chase the New York Giants for NFC supremacy.

Winner: Carolina

Green Bay (5-5) at New Orleans (5-5)

This is probably the toughest game to pick this week. The Packers looked so good in their 37-3 win over Chicago that it would seem to be impossible to pick them to lose ever again. They not only passed the ball well and stopped the pass well, but they kept Matt Forte in check and rushed for 200 yards.

If they play that way the rest of the season, they will reemerge as a NFC contender. The problem is they haven’t been a very consistent team this year, so who knows what will show up in New Orleans?

The key for me is the Packer pass defense. The Packers rank third in pass yards allowed and quarterbacks average a 59.5 QB rating against them, which is first in the NFL. That is a bad sign for a team that is dependent on the passing game to move the ball.

The other stat of note is that the Packers are just 2-3 on the road and the Saints are 4-1 at home. Their sole loss was a 30-27 loss to Minnesota back in Week Five.

I still like the Packers. I think Aaron Rodgers will be able to move the ball against a suspect Saints defense. While Brees will get his usual 300-yard game, I think he also gets a couple picks, and the Packers emerge as the victors.

Winner: Green Bay

And the rest…