2011 NFL Predictions: Atlanta Falcons to Win First Preseason Game in Pittsburgh

The Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers are set to battle in Week 3 of the 2011 NFL preseason in a rematch of a season-opening contest a year ago.  Kickoff is expected to be at 7:30 p.m. EST at Heinz Field.

Lines makers sent Atlanta off as a one-point road favorite in last year's game, as Pittsburgh was playing the first of four games without the services of starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger due to violating the league's personal conduct policy. 

The result was a 15-9 home underdog win by the eventual 2010 AFC champions. 

Atlanta bounced back after that defeat by capturing a 41-7 home win over the Arizona Cardinals—ultimately leading to a four-game win streak.

Falcons head coach Mike Smith has seen his squad open the preseason with consecutive losses against the Miami Dolphins (28-23) and Jacksonville Jaguars (15-13), causing many handicappers to believe that the players haven't gotten over a devastating 48-21 home loss in the playoffs to the Green Bay Packers.

Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey may be best-served to call more running plays this week despite facing the league's top rushing defense from a year ago.  Atlanta has ran the ball on just 45-of-121 plays from scrimmage the first two weeks.

Pittsburgh allowed just 62.8 yards per game on the ground in 2010, but the aging Steel City defense may not produce a number of that kind this year.  The Steelers are allowing 119 yards per contest through two exhibition games—including 140 in a 16-7 preseason-opening road loss to the Washington Redskins.

Many will state that it's simply the preseason, but Steelers fans may need to come to grips that their ferocious defense is getting up there in age.  In fact, defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will be directing the oldest stop unit in the NFL this season.

Casual bettors will find comfort in Pittsburgh holding a 6-0 all-time advantage over Atlanta in preseason action.  It's important to note that the last such meeting came in 2001, a 17-16 Steelers win.

My recommendation is playing the Falcons (+3.5) due to their 5-1 against-the-spread record on the road under Smith during the preseason. 

He has also directed them to impressive wins during this same week in consecutive years—defeating the San Diego Chargers 27-24 at home in 2009 and picking up a 16-6 road victory over the Miami Dolphins last year.