UFC 134: 5 Reasons Nogueira Will Finish Schaub

Heading into UFC: Rio, there is one fighter that people haven't given much of a chance against his opponent: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.  The general consensus is that Brendan Schaub will continue to do as he has been doing, and will knockout Nogueira.  The Brazilian has lost two of his last three fights by knockout, so this might seem like a safe bet.

However, Nogueira isn't going to make this an easy fight for the young fighter.  Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a veteran of 40 fights.  He has taken part in more than a fair share of memorable MMA moments, and is one of the best heavyweights in the history of MMA.  He has been on a bit of a decline since entering the UFC, but he has been written off far too easily.  He still has the skills needed to beat Schaub, and he will finish him. 

5. Schaub Hasn't Beaten Anyone

Schaub entered the UFC with a loss to top 10 heavyweight Roy Nelson.  He got back on track by beating two irrelevant heavyweights, and went on to secure wins over Gabriel Gonzaga and Mirko Cro Cop.  Those are the two most impressive wins of his career, but they don't mean very much.

At the time they fought, Gonzaga's last victory over noteworthy opposition was his knockout win over Mirko, three years prior.  At the time he fought Mirko, Mirko was no longer relevant.  He never beat a serious contender in the UFC, and had stopped using the crisp combinations and kicks that led to most of his success in Pride.  Schaub has performed well against poor and mediocre competition, but has lost to the only top 10 heavyweight he's faced.

4. Nogueira Has

Unlike Schaub, Nogueira's record is stacked with wins over strong competition.  In Pride, he secured notable wins over Dan Henderson, Mirko Cro Cop, Heath Herring (twice), and two of the remaining four fighters in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix.

Nogueira entered the UFC with a third win over Heath Herring, who at the time was a relevant fighter in the heavyweight division.  He followed up with an incredible come-from-behind submission victory over Tim Sylvia.  Between losses to Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir, he had an impressive decision win over Randy Couture.  There is no doubt which of the two fighters have beaten better opposition.  Even when Nogueira is restricted to his UFC career, Schaub's successes just don't compare.

3. Nogueira Fights Best When He's Healthy

In combat sports, a fighter's career can take a huge blow from an injury.  Nogueira has never had any one seriously crippling injury (while he was competing in MMA, anyways), but has suffered from a series of knee and hip injuries.  Heading into his fight with Frank Mir he injured his knee and suffered from a severe staph infection shortly before the fight.  He got better, and soundly beat Randy Couture when he was relatively healthy.

After a loss to Cain Velasquez, he had to cancel his rematch with Frank Mir when he suffered yet another knee injury.  But now, the Brazilian is fully recovered.  After surgery on each knee and his hips, he is as healthy as he has ever been in his career, and is ready to get back into the win column. 

2. Schaub's Ground Game Is Far Worse

Even in his otherwise dominant performances, Schaub has looked very vulnerable on the ground.  Starting from half guard, it barely took Roy Nelson a minute to secure side control.  When Schaub shot for the take-down against Gonzaga, Gonzaga easily stuffed it and moved to Schaub's back.  Schaub's attempts to loosen Mirko Crop Cop's guard left him very open for sweeps.  

Against a BJJ practitioner like Nogueira, his elementary ground game will get him into serious trouble. Schaub does hold a distinct advantage on the feet, but his elementary ground game gives Nogueira a huge advantage on the ground.

1. Nogueira Wants It More

Schaub has received a lot of criticism for calling out legends past their prime.  He always talks about the huge respect he has towards these fighters, but his sincerity has been questioned.  Even if he is sincere in his respect, it is still likely he's choosing fights that he think will propel him toward the title most easily.  Wins over old legends with good records is a good and proven way to get to the top.

However, Nogueira wants to prove he's still one of the elite.  He wants to show Dana White and the fans that his string of failures can be attributed to his illnesses and injuries, and that he can still climb to the top.  And he wants to show his country what he's capable of.  His brother and training partners have vouched for his motivation.

I think Schaub thinks he will walk through Nogueira.  He thinks that his win over Cro Cop proved he was better than the heavyweights of old, and that Nogueira is just another obstacle to overcome to attain a title shot.  But Nogueira isn't like Gonzaga and Cro Cop.  Throughout his career, Nogueira has overcome incredible odds and injury to win fights.  His will is unquestionable.  He wants to win more badly than Schaub, and still has the skills to do it.