NFL Preseason 2011: 10 Biggest Storylines in the AFC South

The AFC South hangs in the balance of a few players, coaches, and situations.  For there to be a shift in power, teams like the Texans, Jaguars, and Titans must make the best out of this off season.

The South has and always will rest on Peyton Manning's shoulders.  In a division that is undergoing a lot of change, everyone needs to take advantage of every little thing they can. 

These are the 10 biggest stories that will largely determine the outlook of the AFC South, and the future of many of it's key players. 

Will Blaine Gabbert Start?

At the beginning of training camp, many assumed Gabbert would be sitting his rookie season, as the serviceable David Garrard led the Jaguars into this season.

As training camp has progressed, it's no longer such a sure thing. 

Gene Frenette of the The Florida Times said "...in 16 years of watching the Jaguars in preseason, I’ve never seen a quarterback look so impressive just throwing the football."

Those are pretty heavy remarks from someone who's been covering the Jags for a very long time.  Gabbert has looked very solid in the preseason, but has failed to create clear separation from himself and Garrard. 

Garrard definitely isn't helping himself by tweaking his back early in training camp.  He was able to play in the second game of preseason, but hadn't practiced during the week. 

In this writer's opinion, Gabbert won't end up starting at the beginning of the season.  If and when the Jags start to fall out of contention, the likelihood of him starting increases week by week. 

Texans Swith to a 3-4

It's been said before, but the Houston Texan's defense can really only get better. 

They suffered injuries to Brian Cushing and DeMeco Ryans both suffered injuries that devastated their 2010 seasons, and were the two best defenders on the Texans defense outside of Mario Williams. 

Wade Phillips is a miracle worker.  He's turned defenses around in a single season every where he's gone; the last three new teams he's worked for he's helped bring to the playoffs the season he arrived. 

The big question is if Mario Williams can make the change to outside linebacker.  He was possibly the best defensive end in the business, but the transition can be tricky.  Players like Tamba Hali have made the same transition, and with great success.

However, there's almost always a learning curve.  It took Hali the better half of his first season there to settle in.

The Texans usurping the Colts will largely depend on how well they can transition to their new defense under Wade Phillips, and whether or not players like Danieal Manning and Jonathan Joseph can make an immediate, and large, impact.

Chris Johnson's Holdout

The Titan's team is Chris Johnson.

The team lacks extraordinary talent on both sides of the ball, but what they lack on offense is made up in light years by Johnson. 

The holdout is reportedly getting nasty.

So nasty in fact, that ESPN insider Adam Schefter says it might get as bad as Darrell Revis's holdout previously did. 

Today profootballtalk.com reported that Titan's owner Bud Adams is fed up with Johnson's behavior, and that the Titan's have openly acknowledged that C.J. might miss games.

Not having Chris Johnson to open the season is like not having Peyton Manning to open the season.  Both players are their teams. 

 I'm sure both situations have the Texans and Jaguars smiling. 

Maurice Jones-Drew

Maurice Jones-Drew has been a work horse for several years now, and it's wearing on him.

MJD had off season knee surgery, and by all reports is fine.  The Jags are being as ginger as possible with him, keeping him out of any preseason action. 

He's had the third most carries over the last two years, a number that indicates he's in for some decline.  There's only so much punishment the body can take. 

Maurice Jones-Drew's ability to stay healthy will be a large part of the Jaguars success.  Reshad Jennings might be the best backup running back in the league, but MJD is a special kind of play maker. 

Is Arian Foster a One Hit Wonder?

Texans fans everywhere couldn't have been happier when their undrafted free agent running back racked up 2,420 yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground and through the air. 

But that was last year, what about this one?

Running backs can come and go, and they change with the seasons.

Cadillac Williams was rookie of the year, and now he is the second or third stringer behind Steven Jackson for the Rams.  The point is, sometimes guys just have great years, and then fall off the radar.

The preseason injuries aren't something that inspire great confidence either.  He tweaked his hamstring early, and any injury this early in the season, after the lockout robbed them of so much time, is something for concern.  

Foster was a back that benefited greatly from his offensive line, and the punishing blocking of fullback Vonta Leach.  A spectacular year from Leach was enough to help Foster into the end zone multiple times and accounted for a good deal of his yards, no doubt. 

Now Vonta Leach is gone, and but the line remains.

Foster will almost certainly regress from his beautiful 2010 season, but how far? 

Can the Colts Find a Running Game?

The Colts were simply awful on the ground last year.  So much so that they virtually gave the run up, and Peyton Manning threw over 40 times a game. 

The lack of balance was a killer for the Colts.

They became predictable, and even Peyton Manning can't carry the Colts on his shoulders entirely (or injured neck).

Joseph Addai has proved to be a good runner, when healthy.  The problem is he's rarely healthy.

The other Colts in the stable aren't in the least reliable. 

Donald Brown, the former first round pick, has been terrible.  He's averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, and when Joseph Addai went down last year it was no coincidence that the Colts run game went with him.

Mike Hart has shown he has some ability, but he doesn't bring the dynamic Addai brings to the backfield.  Seeing if Addai can still do it, and if he'll actually remain healthy for the season is of the utmost importance.  

Can the Real Colts Defense Please Stand Up?

When the Colts went on their run to a super bowl title, their defense stepped up in a big way. 

Under Peyton Manning, the Colts have never truly had a great defense.  This year appears to be no different. 

Will the aging Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis be able to maintain their fantastic play?  Those two hold together a shaky defense, taking pressure of the secondary that has holes. 

The Colts have cut loose Bob Sanders after injuries plagued the pro bowler over the last two years.

The big question at cornerback is Jerraud Powers.  He's shown flashes of great cornerback play, and that would be something the Colts truly haven't enjoyed in awhile.  

Can Coach Mike Munchak Keep the Titans from the Bottom?

Munchak has been a part of the Oilers/Titans franchise ever since he was a player in 1982, and started as an offensive assistant in 1994. 

He comes in to replace long time colleague and friend Jeff Fisher, who was head coach for 16 years. 

Munchak was the offensive line coach the last few years, and if how the offensive line performed last year is any indication of his head coaching ability then the Titan's are in trouble.  Clearly Bud Adams has some faith in him since he's been around the league for so long. 

The Titans have a very real possibility of being a bottom feeder this year.

The division is up in the air, but that doesn't mean the Texans, Jags, and Colts are going to be slouches.  Part of Munchak's job this season will be to keep the Titans competitive in a division that isn't the strongest in the league.  

What Will the Jags Defense Look Like

The Jaguars made major defensive moves during free agency to try and remedy one of the worst defenses in the league. 

The big problem last year was the Jags secondary, but the moves they made don't necessarily reflect that. 

The Jaguars signed Paul Posluszny, Clint Session, and Matt Roth. 

All three figure to be starters in a linebacking core that was just plain bad last year.  Session was a good steal from the Colts, any addition that subtracts from your biggest foe is a good one. 

Matt Roth could be providing some sorely needed pass rushing.  In two preseason games, the Jags have yet to get one sack. 

Roth hasn't been playing in the preseason, but still it is very disconcerting considering that you would think they could pick up at least one sack against the second and third stringers. 

Dawan Landry comes over from the Ravens to assist at safety.  The problem is he's not really a cover safety, he's a in the box run destroying safety.

While the Jags might be much improved up front, their secondary could be in a world of trouble still.

Will Peyton Manning Miss Time?

The entire balance of the AFC South rests on Peyton Manning's neck.

Jim Irsay has said publicly that it's "impossible to predict" when Manning will be ready.

He has a twitter account, which he uses very actively, and tweeted early on August 20th "We r evaluating the QB sitch,#18 healing but we got 2 b prepared 4 early season possibility without him,defense has 2 pick it up,big time!"

The situation has to be extremely disconcerting for Colts fans.  They've had a stranglehold on the division since 2001. 

For the first time in seven years the Colts won less than 12 games.  Their quarterback had to throw an incredible 679 pass attempts to generate the same number of yards and touchdowns he has been for years. 

Manning might already be slipping.

He had a three game stretch last year where he threw 11 interceptions, multiple of which resulted in pick sixes. 

If Colts, who are not as overall talented as years before, start the season without their number one guy, it will be a difficult to hold off the Texans another year.  In the mean time, a second straight opener at Houston looms.