Surprise Pick for Fantasy Football Rookie of the Year in 2011

The Dolphins have a void at running back that must be filled. All three of their best runners from 2010 — Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Patrick Cobbs — are free agents. It appears unlikely that Brown and Williams will be back in the teal and orange when the season opens in 2011.  The Dolphins have signed Reggie Bush - but he is not a bell cow rusher, and will need to share the workload.

Despite having some questions at quarterback, the Dolphins run-heavy offense offers plenty of fantasy football potential. They will return a strong offensive line anchored by Jake Long. They spent their first round pick on Mike Pouncey – who is likely to start at center from day one and further solidify the running game. The Dolphins also have a strong tandem of wide receivers in Brandon Marshall and Davone Bess, which should keep defenses from being able to stack the box.

For the savvy fantasy football fan – this amounts to a rare opportunity for a “plug and play” option at the running back position. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams shared a combined 359 rushing attempts in 2010. Any player who earns a majority split of those opportunities will have a legitimate chance at occupying a top tier spot in the fantasy football rankings.

The Dolphins believe that they have brought in a significant part of the solution when GM Jeff Ireland traded into the round and selected Daniel Thomas out of Kansas State.

Daniel Thomas is a big back – standing about 6’ 1’’ and tipping the scales at about 230lbs. He is a north-south runner that does not shy away from contact. After watching tape on Thomas, a few things stick out pretty clearly. First, he doesn’t like to dance out of play along the sidelines. He is a contact runner who turns his shoulder into someone to end a run. Defensive backs who don’t like to hit, are going to hate playing against Thomas.

The second thing that you notice is his quick step, juke move. While he isn’t going to blow anyone’s doors off in the 3 cone drill – Daniel Thomas does have some impressive moves in traffic. For a big man, he has the ability to make a quick cut and burst for an extra three to four yards. In today’s NFL, that speaks to a higher “fantasy points per opportunity” score and an increased chance of seeing meaningful opportunities around the red zone.

If I was asked to pick out an NFL comparison for Daniel Thomas – I would lean towards either Steven Davis (Redskins/Panthers) or Robert Edwards (Patriots.) Steven Davis enjoyed a huge fantasy football season in 1999, when he led the NFC in rushing with 1,405 yards and complimented that with 17 touchdowns. Robert Edwards enjoyed a breakout rookie season – compiling 1,115 rushing yards.

While those might be lofty comparisons for young Daniel Thomas – they do hint at a ceiling that offers impressive fantasy football talent. Thomas should be targeted early in the first round in dynasty formats. Those in redraft leagues will want to select him between the 5^th and 8^th rounds.

2011 Fantasy Football Projection: Tier Six RB (RB3 or RB4 in most league formats)

• 218 Carries, 855 Rushing Yards and 4 Rushing Touchdowns
• 18 Receptions, 190 Receiving Yards and 0 Receiving Touchdowns

For additional projections, rankings and fantasy football advice - visit gridiron-guru.com