NFC South 2011 Predictions: A Look Ahead at the Toughest Division in Football

The NFC South is quickly becoming the toughest division in football.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished third in in the division in 2010 at 10-6 and missed the playoffs. The New Orleans Saints won 11 games and secured a Wild Card berth, but still found themselves two games behind the division-winning Atlanta Falcons (13-3).

Boasting the Super Bowl champs from two years ago in the Saints, the top seed in the NFC playoffs from 2010 in the Falcons and the team that had by far the biggest improvement from 2009 to 2010 in the Buccaneers (3-13 in ’09), it seems the lowly Carolina Panthers, coming off a dreadful 2-14 season, are the only thing keeping this division from going down as one of the best in recent memory.

No other division had three 10-win teams in 2010.

Three teams could potentially win double-digit games in 2011 as well (sorry, Carolina).

Here’s one way the NFC South could shake out in 2011.

4th Place: Carolina Panthers

You can Cam Newton me all you want. You can tell me to look at the Buccaneers' turnaround from '09 to '10 as an example. Say what you will.

The Carolina Panthers have the toughest schedule in the NFL in 2011.

Based on 2010 win-loss records, the Panthers' opponents' combined winning percentage from 2010 is .555 (142-114).

A rookie head coach, a rookie quarterback and an aging and easily agitated star receiver don't exactly provide a team the ingredients for a playoff run.

Of course, they could go with Jimmy Clausen under center over rookie Cam Newton, but Clausen was underwhelming at best as a rookie in 2010, struggling to keep the job of running the league's worst offense.

Three touchdowns, nine interceptions and a 58.4 quarterback rating doesn't breed confidence.

Newton could and should start and the league's 18th-ranked defense from a year ago should improve under defensive specialist and new head coach Ron Rivera, but not enough to make any noise in the NFC South.

Division record: 0-6

Overall record: 4-12

Winnable games: @ Arizona, vs. Jacksonville, vs. Washington, vs. Tennessee, @ Detroit, @ Houston.

T2nd Place: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A 10-6 season is difficult to top under most circumstances.

When it's as big a turnaround year as it was for the Buccaneers, it's even more arduous.

Nevertheless, the Buccaneers have a number of tools in place. They have Josh Freeman. They have future  Hall of Famer Ronde Barber coming back for what will likely be his final season. They have young defensive and offensive lines and an underrated safety corps coming back healthy, for the most part.

But wide receiver Mike Williams and running back LeGarrette Blount have to show up, too, and they likely will. After Williams tallied 964 yards and a Buccaneer rookie record 11 touchdowns and Blount amassed 1,007 yards and six touchdowns, sophomore slumps from these two could easily stunt the Buccaneers' progress.

The Buccaneers have the 18th-toughest schedule with a combined opponents' record of 127-129 from 2010, but they still get the Falcons and Saints twice, of course.

The 28th-ranked run defense from 2010 must get better, as the Buccaneers face the likes of Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Arian Foster, Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew in 2011.

And they still get to see Michael Turner twice.

With a renewed focus on the defensive line in the last two drafts, the defensive line looks to be heading in the right direction, another key to the Buccaneers getting back to the playoffs.

Division record: 3-3

Overall record: 10-6

Losable games: They could split with the Falcons, but splitting with the Saints for the fourth straight year (Saints have not swept the Buccaneers since 2006), beating Indianapolis at home, Chicago in London and Green Bay on the road could prove difficult.

T2nd Place: New Orleans Saints

Mark Ingram has stolen the headlines in New Orleans since the Saints moved up into the first round to take him at No. 28 overall.

Perhaps one of the Saints' biggest downfalls in 2010, despite finishing 11-5 and making the playoffs, was inconsistency at running back with Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory all missing time with injuries.

They also got a pass-rushing defensive end in the first round in Cal's Cameron Jordan. Despite finishing fourth in total defense in 2010, their 33 sacks left them tied for 18th in the league.

Ingram's drafting left Reggie Bush and his big contract seemingly on the outs in New Orleans, but either way, the Saints will have tremendous depth at the running back position, provided they stay healthy.

The Saints have the 13th-toughest schedule in 2011 (opponents were a combines 130-126 in 2010) and they face the Buccaneers and Falcons twice each.

Division record: 5-1

Overall record: 10-6

Losable games: The Saints could potentially start the season 0-2, traveling to Green Bay in Week 1 followed by the Bears coming to town in Week 2, but a split with the potent Falcons is likely and the visiting Colts and Giants could give them trouble.

Plus, they always seem to find a way to lose to one team they have no business losing to, so chalk that one up, too.

1st Place: Atlanta Falcons

It seems that it wasn't long ago we were talking about the Falcons posting back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in franchise history.

Back-to-back NFC South crowns is next.

The Falcons were the top seed in the 2010 NFC playoffs at 13-3 and were ousted from the playoffs by the eventual Super Bowl champion Packers.

But a team that didn't need to add much to their offense did so anyhow, leaping into the top 10 in the 2011 draft to snag wide receiver Julio Jones out of Alabama.

Jones gives them a potentially dynamic playmaker opposite Pro Bowler Roddy White, who led the league in receiving yards in 2010 with 1,389 yards. He also added 10 touchdowns. Not to mention they have Matt Ryan handing the ball off to Michael Turner and a seemingly ageless tight end in Tony Gonzalez.

The Falcons boast the 11th-easiest schedule in 2011 with opponents' records from 2010 totaling 126-130.

Though many believe they hit a home run with the selection of Jones No. 6 overall, they did nothing in the draft to bolster their 22nd-ranked pass defense, something that plagued them in their 48-21 playoff trouncing at the hands of the Packers that saw Aaron Rogers torch them for 366 yards and three touchdowns while completing over 86 percent of his passes.

In the quarterback-heavy NFC South, that usually spells trouble, but their offensive prowess will carry them through, though their secondary will likely cost them a few games in 2011.

Division record: 4-2

Overall record: 11-5.

Losable games: Splitting with the Buccaneers and Saints seems likely while beating Chicago and Indianapolis on the road and Philadelphia and Green Bay at home could keep them from duplicating their regular season success from a year ago.

But it won't keep them from winning the division.

Final Standings

1. Atlanta Falcons: 11-5

The Falcons win back-to-back NFC South titles, but their 11-5 record is not good enough for the top seed in the playoffs this time around, though it does earn them a first-round bye.

2. New Orleans Saints: 10-6

The saints struggle at times, but their prolific offense remains so and they find a way to pull off double-digit wins for the third consecutive year, earning a playoff berth.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10-6

The Buccaneers duplicate their 2010 success with an identical record, but this time, their success against teams outside the NFC South earns them the upper hand in the playoff tiebreaker and they make the playoffs for the first time since 2007, although they are the No. 6 seed.

4. Carolina Panthers: 4-12

The Panthers and Ron Rivera show a little something in 2011 and Cam Newton shows his freakish athleticism amidst a few rookie struggles throwing the ball. While doubling in wins gives them something to hand their hat on, they're still a year or two away from serious competition in a stacked NFC South.