NFL Lockout: 5 Reasons This Isn't a Done Deal

There are a lot of sportswriters today commenting that “an NFL labor deal is close to being done.”  Several have even said they expect an agreement in principal by the next owner’s meeting, which is nine days from now.  According to anonymous sources (and nobody is quoting anyone by name, since the parties are under order to keep their mouths shut about the negotiation), several of the big issues (e.g. revenue sharing) have been solved, and there are only three outstanding items. 

A) The rookie wage scale.  Owners have long complained that unproven rookies are paid way too much. They want what is essentially an individual salary cap on rookies.   The current proposal is something around $7 million a year.  You or I would work for that starting tomorrow, but last year’s No. 1 pick, QB Sam Bradford, got a $50 million signing bonus and $28 million over six years.

B)  Retiree benefits.  Retiree statistics published recently (a lot of NFL players are broke five years after retirement, they have shorter life spans and more chronic pain, etc…) have shocked the player’s union and the owners into improving benefits to retired players.   Both agree that more needs to be done for the retirees, but they are still arguing about who will pay for it.

C)  Free agency.  At some point a rookie becomes a veteran, and the issue is when does that happen and what are the rules when it does?   Players want it to be at the end of four years, the owners apparently want six, and there are a bunch of technical issues like “right of first refusal” still in play.

Not to be pessimistic, but there is a lot of chicken left on this bone.  Here are five serious wrenches that could be thrown into the agreement machinery in the next nine days.

These Guys Are Really Starting to Dislike Each Other

1) The two sides are really starting to get on each other’s nerves.  That's human nature.  The negotiation has been going on since March.  There were some comments that got out early (Panther’s owner Jerry Richardson patronizing Peyton Manning over his knowledge of financial statements, the players complaining that they weren’t being treated like businessmen), but the gag order has held for the last few weeks.  You’d like to think that businessmen can put personal issues to the side (as the Godfather said, “this is business, not personal,”) but don’t underestimate the role that personal animosity could play in scuttering a deal

The Best Alternative to a Bad Deal Is to Return to the Courtroom

2) BATNA: Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement.  When the outlines of a final deal are on the table but before either party has definitively signed on, the negotiators will take the deal back to the full house.   In the player's case, that means 1,900+ NFL players.  In the owner's case, it means 32 billionaires.  Each of them is going to take a step back and decide, is this a decent deal, or could we do better in court?  If either side thinks they got a raw deal, and could do better in court, then they will scrap the deal and the season, and start making plans to argue it out in front of a judge.

The Retirees Don't Have a Seat at the Table and Resent It

3)  The retired players.  Notice that they aren’t represented at the negotiating table.  Notice also that one of the unsolved issues is how much their benefit package will increase, and who will pay for it.  When you're in the 11th hour, and you are trying to close that last $25 million gap, It is REALLY easy to reduce the pay package of a party who isn’t at the table to complain about it.   But a lousy deal for the retirees could lead to a court challenge and even a legal stay issued by a friendly judge.

The Rookies Are Getting Hosed, and They Don't Have a Seat at the Table Either.

4) The rookies:  see retired players.  They aren’t represented at the table, either, since they aren’t yet members of the player's union.  And (what a coincidence) guess who’s getting the biggest pay cut in this whole deal?  A group of rookies, or agents who represent rookies, could file a legal challenge to the rookie wage scale, which could bring the agreement to a screeching halt.

Fans Aren't at the Table Either, but They Will Have the Final Say.

5)  The fans.  Obviously the fans aren't at the negotiating table and have no ability to put the brakes on this deal.  It would be nice if there was a fan’s union, and we could all insist on a place at the table.  But that’s just a fantasy.  However, both the players and the owners have been operating under the assumption that “the fans will come back, because they have in the past.”  The thing is, the economy is horrible, the unemployment rate is over nine percent, and a lot of people's houses are under water.  Watching billionaires and millionaires haggle over billions for the last few months has been unappetizing to say the least.  It may have been disgusting enough to drive the fans away.  It happened with baseball; it could certainly happen here.