2011 NFL Free Agency: Predicting How Many Free Agents Each Team Will Lose

Perhaps football fans have been too harsh in their disdain towards the NFL (owners and players alike) for not getting a new deal signed and getting on with free agency, OTAs, mini-camps, etc.  After all, dragging things out has given us all an few extra months to think about what big-name free agents our favorite teams will sign.

Not buying that argument?  Still upset?  Fine...there is just no pleasing some people, even when there is a luxury of splitting up an economy the size of an average African or small European country.

With every big-name signing, it means another team has lost a piece of their puzzle.  Losing players is likely to happen more frequently with the new collective bargaining agreement, as players are pushing to become unrestricted free agents after just four seasons.  

For the purpose of this article, I'll be going by the assumption that teams will still have a franchise tag and a transition tag that actually has teeth, and in return players will become unrestricted FAs after four seasons.

The following pages will outline how many players each team figures to lose.  There is a summary for each team showing the number of listed free agents according to the NFL Players Association.  

There will be a total player loss in the title slide for each team.  This number also reflect players that have been released since the end of the 2010 season and that do not count towards the "free agent" total for each team.

AFC East, Buffalo Bills: 5 Players

Posluszny is the primary player the Bills need to bring back, but expect them to make a play for Whitner as well. The Bills are in an enviable position, as they have a team that is building and very few free agents.

Buffalo has already lost two players, but are in a good position to build in free agency.  They have very few players to sign, and will likely have close to $25 million to spend in free agency.  They could be a team that makes a jump in 2011.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	0	0	0	1	1	3	4	0	10

AFC East, Miami Dolphins: 9 Players

The Dolphins have a relatively short list of free agents, several of whom will be restricted.  They will also have money to work with to build their roster.

The primary concerns for the Dolphins in free agency will be to find an upgrade at the QB position and sign a RB to work with Daniel Thomas.  They will need to find a replacement for Chad Pennington as he takes "a year off."  That might just be re-signing Patrick Ramsey, but fans must be hoping the Fins go after a QB that could actually press for a starting position.

Terrelle Pryor could be a tempting option for Miami.  I don't think he fits in many places, but the Dolphins are one team that could likely work him into an offense. 

OL was also addressed in the draft, but they will likely look to sign a free agent or two for depth.

Paul Soliai has been franchised, and will be back.  Look for Tyler Thigpen and Tony McDaniel to be back as well.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
2	3	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	11

AFC East, New England Patriots: 7 Players

The Patriots have addressed their most important free agent by giving the expected-to-be-usable franchise tag to Logan Mankins.  

They have a half-dozen options at RB, but may opt to look at other free agents to compete with and compliment Shane Vereen and the surprise pick of the third-round, Stevan Ridley.

It will be interesting to see how they address their OL concerns.  Light was ineffective last season and doesn't figure into future plans after drafting Nate Solder, but he may be needed for a final season.  I don't expect Light to be a Patriot in '11 though.

Marcus Cannon would make Quinn Ojinnaka expendable (again), but Cannon's health will not likely allow him to suit up for the 2011 season.

Shayne Graham will likely be back as well.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
0	3	0	0	3	1	1	2	1	11

AFC East, New York Jets: 14 Players

Fans should have every reason to expect the Jets to be busy in the offseason.  They have a lot of free agents and players that were released for salary purposes; they will likely look to sign many of them but most are likely to get away.

The 2010 signings will catch up with the Jets for 2011, as the team is currently above one possible cap figure of $120 million.

David Harris will be back next season, as the Jets used their franchise tag on him.

Antonio Cromartie is a great fit in New York, but he needs as big a paycheck as he can get...he's got nine kids to feed (readers who have seen Total Recall will have a better appreciation for that comment).  The Jets aren't likely to be able to match expected offers from other teams in need of help in the secondary.

There is some scuttle that Jets coaches are tired of his on-field attitude (he doesn't always get good contact at the line of scrimmage and his technique leaves a bit to be desired at times).  He fared well against bigger WRs, but struggled against small, quicker matchups.  A team like San Francisco could be a good fit.

The Jets also have work to do at the WR position.  They would likely want to sign all three free agents, and they may very well convince Brad Smith and Santonio Holmes to return.  Braylon Edwards' non-performance concerns may mean it is time for him to move on.

One player that should not be returning is Nick Folk.  A team with visions of a Super Bowl need a kicker that can kick more FGs than an average MLS forward would make.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	1	3	0	1	2	2	5	2	17

AFC North, Baltimore Ravens: 8 Players

There has been a lot of talk about Bulger getting a starting job in 2011, but he may decide to return for another year as a backup to Flacco.  The Ravens will need to sign a backup during free agency, be it Bulger or another option like Matt Leinart.

The Ravens will also have a lot to concentrate on in the secondary and the offensive line.  However, the Ravens have the nucleus to compete and should be able to keep most of their squad in tact as they have the free agency dollars to spend.

They will have some turnover at the CB and WR positions, but that will be by design.

2011 looks to shape up very well for Baltimore, and they should be able to pick and choose their own players they want back.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	2	2	1	4	1	1	4	2	18

AFC North, Cincinnati Bengals: 13 Players

2011 figures to be a very difficult offseason for the Bengals.  Aside from dealing with the issues surrounding Carson Palmer and finding another QB with starter credentials, they have a lot of free agents to target.  

Johnathan Joseph will be their top priority, and they will pay him enough to stay.  The same can be expected for Roy L. Williams.

The biggest issue the Bengals will face is finding free agents willing to play for them.  They could have $30 million they have to spend in free agency to meet the expected salary threshold...$40 million if Palmer is traded or retires.

Paul Brown could get into a position of having to over-spend on free agents to attract talent and meet salary requirements.

Brown needs to seriously consider trading Palmer and using that $10 million as a signing bonus for a QB that can bridge the gap in Cincinnati.  That could be Matt Hasselbeck, Marc Bulger or Alex Smith, and Matt Leinart shouldn't be overlooked as a player to offer long-term backup duties.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
0	2	1	1	2	1	2	6	0	15

AFC North, Cleveland Browns: 15 Players

The bad news for Browns fans is they have a lot of free agents.  The good news, though, is they have a lot of free agents.  

Mike Holmgren is attempting to re-tool their team and he'll likely have around $20 million to spend in free agency.

The Browns will bring back Phil Dawson (K, Franchise Tag) and Evan Moore (TE), and Matt Roth (OLB) and Eric Wright (CB) will be high on their list.  Beyond that there are a few players they will target, but it is hard to find many players the team "has" to sign.

Look for the Browns to be active in free agency this year; they are closer to being "good" than a lot of people realize...so long as Colt McCoy can be the kind of QB Holmgren and many others believe he can be.

In addition to the players below, the Browns cut six players.  

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	2	1	2	2	3	3	4	1	19

AFC North, Pittsburgh Steelers: 6 Players

The Steelers are about the last team to go a bit crazy signing free agents.  2011 will be no different, as the team has little money to work with under the anticipated 2011 cap of $120 million.

The Steelers have a few important free agents they will certainly pursue.  They have franchised LaMarr  Woodley (OLB), as he is the one FA they can't afford to lose.  

Look for them to make a strong run at their three special teams players as well (Daniel Sepulveda, P, Shaun Suisham, K and Greg Warren, LS).  

The team had another good draft (so long as Cameron Heyward reaches his potential and doesn't have the lapses that haunted him in college); they won't need to search out talent in free agency to continue to be competitive.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
0	1	0	1	4	2	2	3	2	15

AFC South, Houston Texans: 13 Players

The Texans have already taken care of several of their pending free agents, signing deals with Owen Daniels (TE) and Shaun Cody (NT).  They also tendered Arian Foster, and with just three years he will be returning next season.

The biggest concern left on the Texans roster is Vonta Leach (no, it isn't inking Leinart to a long-term deal).  He is one of the better blocking FBs in the league and there are several teams with free agents at the position that may be looking for an upgrade.

The rest of their free agents are depth players or lower-tier starters.  The Texans aren't likely to be able to keep up in many bidding wars, as they are only about $1 million below the floated cap figure.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	2	1	1	2	5	2	2	1	17

AFC South, Indianapolis Colts: 8-10 Players

The Colts have one issue they may want to respond to once free agency begins.  They have a QB who is pretty good but isn't currently under contract.  Mr. Franchise was franchised, and expect him to sign a deal worth just a little more than the four-year, $72 million contract given to Tom Brady.  I would guess it would be in the neighborhood of four years, $75 million and $50 million guaranteed.

Addai is the next issue for Jim Irsay.  He is an integral part of the offense and Delone Carter is not a suitable replacement.  The biggest issue will be money.  The Colts are above $115 million in salary and could be bumping up against the anticipated cap.

Vinatieri is another player the Colts would like to bring back.  He could get lost in the money shuffle, though, which would be unfortunate.  He is tied to the Colts almost as much as Manning.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	2	0	0	1	3	2	4	1	14

AFC South, Jacksonville Jaguars: 8 Players

The biggest focus of the Jaguars once free agency begins is the minimum threshold for salary.  In years past, the team with attendance and financial struggles has looked to keep their total salary expenses low.  However, current talks point to only allowing teams a few points below the cap amount, meaning the Jaguars could need to spend upwards of $40 million this offseason.

While that is a problem some teams would like to have, the Jaguars might not welcome the news.

They will at least be able to control their few free agents, and in particular bring back pass catchers Mike Sims-Walker and Marcedes Lewis (TE, Franchise Tag) to go along with Jason Hill, who was re-signed, and draft pick Cecil Shorts.

Trent Edwards is likely the odd-man out, as they have re-signed Luke McCown and drafted Blaine Gabbert.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
3	0	2	1	0	0	3	2	1	12

AFC South, Tennessee Titans: 7 Players

The Titans have several issues to address in free agency this year.  From their own roster, Stephen Tulloch and keeping a few DEs around will be quite important.

Looking outside their organization, the Titans are likely to look at bringing in a short-term QB to help Jake Locker mature.  They could also benefit from finding a veteran WR, as Randy Moss didn't exactly give them the spark they had hoped for.

The Titans also have several options to look at for their LB corps.  Akeem Ayers will add some youth there, as will retaining several other young players.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
2	1	1	1	1	4	3	2	0	15

AFC West, Denver Broncos: 5 Free Agents Plus 2 Players Cut

The good news for the Broncos is they don't have many free agents to worry about keeping in house.  The bad news is they don't have any money to spend on free agents that will be available.

The Broncos will need to work on the defensive line.  They have free agents that might not fit their system, and opted to part ways with Jamal Williams.

Matt Prater will be important to re-sign, and the Broncos will need to determine what to do at the RB position.  That could mean bringing back Maroney, but John Fox undoubtedly has his eyes on DeAngelo Williams.  

The problem for the Broncos will be money.  They currently have committed $125 million towards the cap next year, which doesn't bode well if the 2011 cap does get set at $120 million.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
0	2	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	7

AFC West, Kansas City Chiefs: 8 Players

The Chiefs rebounded nicely last season to make the playoffs.  They made a few solid additions during the draft, including Jonathan Baldwin and Rodney Hudson.

When free agency starts, the Chiefs will have ample money to keep their own players, as well as allowing Scott Pioli to look at the market.

The Chiefs were active using tags after the season.  Tamba Hali (OLB) received the Franchise Tag, while tenders were placed on Brandon Carr (CB), Wallace Gilberry (DE) and Barry Richardson (OT).  These players are all important to the Chiefs' plans, as is Shaun Smith (DL).

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	2	2	1	3	2	4	2	0	17

AFC West, Oakland Raiders: 16 Players

The Raiders managed to wrap up their talent on the DL.  However, they are looking at significant turnover on the other side of the ball, with Robert Gallery, Samson Satele, Langston Walker, Khalif Barnes and Mario Henderson all becoming free agents.

The Raiders will have a little work to do in their secondary.  Nnamdi Asomugha will be gone, and Michael Huff needs a new contract.

The Raiders have a lot of positions to fill, and their salary dollars could get thin if they make any big signings.    

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
4	2	1	1	6	2	6	4	0	26

AFC West, San Diego Chargers:15 Players

Eric Weddle is far and away the biggest free agent for the Chargers (excluding Vincent Jackson who received the franchise tag).  He will eat up a big chunk of the Chargers available salary dollars...but he is well worth it.

There are a few other defenders that will deserve some attention.  The interior of their LB unit needs to be signed, but most of their free agents are backups or replaceable starters.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	1	4	2	2	3	5	5	0	23

NFC East, Dallas Cowboys: 5 Players

Fortunately for Cowboy fans, the team has very few free agents to worry about.  However, the starting left side of their OL are both free agents.  

They can't afford to let Doug Free get away, but then again...the Cowboys can't afford to sign him.  Kyle Kosier could even be a stretch.  

The Cowboys are well over one of the potential salary figures for this season; they may need to get creative to manage their roster.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	0	1	0	3	3	1	1	0	10

NFC East, New York Giants: 11 Players

The Giants will focus on their DL, as Barry Cofield and Mathias Kiwanuka are both free agents.  

The did sign Domenik Hixon (WR) to a one-year deal, but Steve Smith (WR) is still unsigned...as is Kevin Boss (TE) and Ahmad Bradshaw.  The Giants have several important pieces of their team that could be exposed, as they are already fairly high up the salary scale.

Most of the rest of the Giants free agents are reserves and situation players.  They should be able to retain most of them if they can get an answer on how to trim their bloated salary.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	1	5	1	1	3	3	2	0	17

NFC East, Philadelphia Eagles: 6 Players

Aside from needing to agree to terms with Michael Vick, the Eagles are in fairly decent shape in free agency.  They will also have to find some dollars for Quintin Mikell (SS), along with Stewart Bradley (ILB) who is growin into being the heart of the defense.

Special Teams will take some focus, too.  They used the Transition Tag on David Akers (K), and Sav Rocca (P) still has a little life left in his legs.

The Eagles should be able to control their own players, and have enough left to purchase a few upgrades in free agency.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	1	0	0	3	2	4	4	2	17

NFC East, Washington Redskins: 8 Players

The Redskins' primary focus during free agency will have to be on the QB position.  They backed themselves into an unbelievable corner with Donovan McNabb's contract.  They made matters worse by trading out of the 10th spot in the draft where they could have drafted a QB.  Unless the Redskins have strong expectations for John Beck, their QB situation is fairly dire.

The Redskins also have a significant list of free agents.  They aren't likely going to be able to sign several of them due to salary constraints.  The team will likely look to dump or deal Albert Haynesworth to free up salary space so they can make sure they can keep Jammal Brown (OT).  They also have important defenders to consider in Carolos Rogers (CB), Rocky McIntosh (OLB) and Andre Carter (DE). 

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	0	2	0	3	3	2	4	0	15

NFC North, Chicago Bears: 6 Players

The Bears have nine 30+ year-old free agents.  They don't figure to sign several of them.

Olin Kreutz and Danieal Manning are their most important free agents.  Expect them to be pursued heavily, particularly Kreutz, as they don't have another center to step in for him.

The Bears will have to focus on the WR position in free agency.  It was their biggest need headed into the draft, yet they ignored the position altogether.  This will need to be rectified if the Bears are going to make another run at the playoffs.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	1	1	1	1	1	4	3	1	14

NFC North, Detroit Lions: 11 Players

The Lions are in need of upgrades for almost every free agent.  They will sign a few of their younger players, but will be limited in making a big splash in free agency.

The Lions need to improve their LB corps, and most of their roster at this position will enter free agency.  They need to upgrade the OLBs.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
1	0	1	0	1	2	3	6	1	15

NFC North, Green Bay Packers: 9 Players

The Packers are another team that could be playing a salary cap game once free agency begins.  They will need to find dollars to round out their roster, but don't look to be signing many of their uper-tier players.  

Mason Crosby (K) will be high on their target list, as will Cullen Jenkins (DL).  James Jones (WR) will be tempting, but is likely to be a casualty in their numbers game.

The Packers will also need to secure a FB this offseason.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST
0	3	1	0	2	2	1	3	1

NFC North, Minnesota Vikings: 13 Players

The Vikings have a lot of needs and players in free agency and not a lot of money to spend on them.  They will likely lose several key pieces of their team, and could be challenged to find the money for a short-term QB.

Sidney Rice (WR) is near the top of their list of players they want to keep in-house.  Ryan Longwell (K) is also an important signing.

The defensive side of the field is more problematic.  Ray Edwards (DE) is likely going to be gone after the season.  Ben Leber and Pat Williams may also be looking to move on as they have very little time left.

The Vikings could be setting up for a playoff run, but it doesn't look good for their fans.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
3	1	3	0	1	4	2	4	1	19

NFC South, Atlanta Falcons: 8 Players

Atlanta is set up fairly well.  They had a solid core of players last season and addressed issues at WR in the draft.  

This is the time for Atlanta to strike, and they have the funds to sign most of their free agents...if they want to.

There is one particularly troublesome issue for Atlanta.  Three of their starting OL are free agents, and the Falcons will be hard-pressed to bring them all back.  Tyson Clabo (OT) will be high o their list of players to bring back, as will guards Harvey Dahl and Justin Blalock.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
0	2	1	0	4	1	3	1	2	14

NFC South, Carolina Panthers: 11 Players

The Panthers are another team with a lot of cap room and a slew of free agent players.  Unlike others, though, the Panthers actually have a fair amount of their talent up for grabs.

Highlighted by DeAngelo Williams, most of their free agents are on defense.  Ryan Kalil (C) received their franchise tag.

James Anderson (OLB), Charles Johnson (DE), Thomas Davis (OLB), Richard Marshall (CB) and Jamar Williams (OLB) will all hit free agency.  Their other starting OLB, Jordan Senn, was tendered by the Panthers, although that designation still isn't ensured under the new CBA.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
2	1	0	2	3	2	4	4	1	19

NFC South, New Orleans Saints: 16 Players

The Saints have more free agents than any other franchise, which isn't good for a team looking to stay at the top of the NFC.  Following a playoff loss to the Seahawks last year, the Saints have a lot of work to do and limited funds under most cap scenarios to establish their roster.

The one positive aspect for the Saints is most of their top talent is signed to contracts.  They also have the ability to move Reggie Bush to free up cap room.

Things might not be too gloomy for the Saints after all.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
0	5	2	2	3	4	4	7	0	27

NFC South, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6 Players

The biggest issue the Buccaneers will have during free agency is spending their required cap amount.  They are less than half of whatever cap figure is agreed upon.

While the Players Association numbers vary a bit from the list I've compiled, the difference is quite marked with Tampa Bay.  I'm coming up with 21 players that are free agents, and the figure above is based on that number.

Regardless, the Buccaneers need to get busy once the free agent bell is rung.

They have players across the board that need to be signed, but none of their elite talent is at risk.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
0	1	1	1	2	2	4	2	0	13

NFC West, Arizona Cardinals: 8 Players

Plain and simple...the Cardinals need to focus on the OL when free agency begins.  They may need a QB, but unless they can build an OL from scratch it won't matter who they have under center.

The Cardinals need to attract a LT (Doug Free would be one possibility), along with a RT and a G.  Lyle Sendlein (C) performed well last season, and Duece Lutui (G) should have a few good years left in him; both of these linemen are free agents and need to be re-signed.

Also on the free agent list is Alan Faneca (G).  At 34 years-old, his time is about up.

The Cardinals will also need to consider signing Steve Breaston (WR); he would be a good player to have in case they are not able to re-sign Larry Fitzgerald next season.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
0	1	1	2	5	3	0	2	1	15

NFC West, San Francisco 49ers: 8 Players

The 49ers will have a distinct challenge ahead of them, as most of their free agents are actually starters and solid contributors to their team.  While they need to upgrade talent in many areas, losing most of their free agents would hurt the team.

Money could become an issue for San Francisco.  They've wrapped up Patrick Willis (ILB), but Aubrayo Franklin (NT), Manny Lawson (OLB), Takeo Spikes (ILB) and Travis LaBoy (OLB) make up the rest of their front-seven and are free agents.

On offense they signed Vernon Davis (TE) to a long-term deal, but they over-paid for him.  This could make it harder to find the money for David Baas (G/C) and a starting QB.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
2	1	0	0	3	4	2	2	1	15

NFC West, Seattle Seahawks: 16 Players

Fortunately for the Seahawks, they have a third of their expected salary cap space available.

The only problem is the team needs to round out half of their roster.  It could be challenging for Seattle to bring back the players they want to retain and find options to fill in their vacant QB position and infuse some talent in their defense's front seven.  

They need to to either re-sign Brandon Mebane or find a suitable replacement, and bolster the DE depth.  They are also thinning at LB.

Over half of Seattle's starting OL from last season are free agents, and Seattle isn't too likely to bring many of them back.

Year-two of the roster turnover will carry a lot of changes.  Perhaps in year three Pete Carroll will have more of the cast of characters he needs for the Seahawks to be a strong team again. 

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
2	2	4	0	4	6	3	3	1	25

NFC West, St. Louis Rams: 6 Players

The Rams have few free agents they would actually miss, with Mark Clayton being near the top of that list.  Conversely, there aren't too many teams that will be lining up to buy the services of Daniel Fells (TE) or Kevin Dockery (CB).

David Vobora (OLB) is another player the Rams will want to sign, and they gave him an original round tender (7th Round), which does expose him.

QB	RB	WR	TE	OL	DL	LB	DB	ST	Tot
0	0	2	4	2	3	0	3	0	14