2011 CONCACAF Gold Cup: Knockout Round 1 Preview

With the group stage of the 2011 CONCACAF Gold Cup in the books it is now time to turn our attention ahead to the knockout stage. All the teams no matter how well they played (Mexico) or poorly (USA) start with a clean slate.  It's all about three games: win or go home.

June 18th: New Meadowlands Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey

Costa Rica vs. Honduras, 5:00pm EDT

Honduras: Honduras came into tournament on the rise.  After some respectable performances at last summers World Cup, the team has continued to play well especially against CONCACAF opponents.  Following the World Cup, their record was 4-2-1 against CONCACAF opponents leading up to the tournament. 

Their defense has gotten them this far letting in only two goals, tying them with the US and Guatemala for third best in the tournament.  However, if they want to move on they are going to have to begin to find the back of the net.  They have scored seven goals, but all of them in only a single game, against lowly Grenada.

Striking partners Jerry Bengston and Walter Martinez are going to have to show some of the same magic they did against Grenada where they combined for five of the seven if they are going to move on.

Costa Rica: Costa Rica comes into this match looking to avenge their 2010 World Cup Qualifying defeat at the hands of their fellow Central Americans.  Their 4-0 loss to Honduras back in August 2009 didn't help their chances of automatically qualifying for South Africa, being edged by the Los Catrachos on goal difference.

They have had a modest Gold Cup, finishing second in their group behind Mexico and only because of a very late game tying goal against El Salvador. With one of the youngest rosters in the tournament (only two players are over the age of 27), they are clearly in a rebuilding period and do not look like the lurking threat knocking on the door steps of the US and Mexico, as they have in the past.  They too will be in desperate need of goals as the tournament goes on. 

Other than a foray of five against Cuba, goals have been hard to come by for Los Ticos.  The young captain Celso Borges will need to command the attack and be central if they are to progress in the tournament.

Prediction: Do not expect a bonanza of goals in this match.  It should be a scrappy affair with tough defensive play.  It's really a toss up to predict a winner, but Honduras' tough defensive play thus far gives them the slight advantage.

Mexico vs. Guatemala, 8:00 EDT

Mexico:  There is much to be said about this Mexican national team.  They have lived up to their billing of pre-tournament favorites demolishing every team in their path.  With young Man U starlet Javier Hernandez leading the attack, Mexico has scored an impressive 14 goals in their first three games. 

Giovanni Dos Santos has finally become the attacking midfield play maker the team has waited for.  While their electrifying offense has captured all the attention, their defense has been just as impressive.  Anchored by the resurging Rafael Marquez, the defense has let in only a single goal.  The dismissal of five players for banned substance violations has done little to deter the focus of this squad. It really is not fair to single one player as key to their game. 

The whole team has played at the top level and there is no reason to suggest they won't continue.  While Gold Cup glory is what this team aims for right now, their play suggests bigger aspirations in Brazil 2014.

Guatemala: It could be argued that Guatemala is only this far because of a fortunate grouping.  Getting to play Grenada gave them a four goal cushion on goal differential.  That game is the only one in which they impressed, being held scoreless in their other two.  Never qualifying for a World Cup and having little success in recent tournaments makes Guatemala one of the biggest underdogs of the tournament. 

With a largely veteran squad this is a team that knows the feeling of losing and may have a chip on their shoulder as they go into a match where a win would be one of the biggest for the country in recent history.  Veteran striker Carlos Ruiz of the Philadelphia Union will have to have the game of his life to answer the high scoring attack of Mexico. 

Perhaps the one bright spot for Guatemala is they are in a no pressure situation.  Not expected to win, they can play their game and maybe provide the upset of the tournament.

Prediction: It is too difficult to see Mexico losing this game.  Their talent, drive, and form are all much too great for Guatemala to overcome.  The game shouldn't look too different from Mexico's first three.

June 19th: RFK Memorial Stadium, Washington D.C.

Jamaica vs. USA, 3:00 pm EDT

Jamaica: Jamaica has been the surprise of the tournament.  Their explosive speed and counterattack have led them to a perfect 3-0-0 record in the group stage.  Even more surprising is their defense which has let in a tournament best zero goals. 

Veteran Keeper Donovan Ricketts has commanded his net and the four men in front of him have played outstanding.  This is a team which is in its prime.  It has dominated the Caribbean the past few years and looks ready to makes its mark on the rest of North America.  Many of the Jamaican players play their professional ball in the MLS, making them familiar with many of the American players. 

Midfielder Demar Phillips is going to have to continue his goal scoring form and speedy winger Dane Richards will have to be a threat if Jamaica wishes to make this their tournament and beat the US on their own soil.

USA: The tournament for the US has been nothing short of disappointing.  Mistakes on both ends of the field cost the US their first loss in the group stage in the tournaments history.  New York Red Bulls young stud center back Tim Ream is still finding his legs on the national stage, and San Jose Earthquakes star striker Chris Wondolowski is making Bob Bradley's decision to include him look very bad. 

However, the very bright spot on this less than impressive campaign comes in Jozy Altidore.  The Bursaspor striker is finally looking like the player we were promised three years ago.  A pair of goals, including a stunning strike against Guadaloupe, has given him the confidence to command that front line like he should.  Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan have been their usual staples of the midfield, providing good, consistent and creative play. 

Goal-scoring has been been the achilles heel for this team.  With only four goals in the first three matches they are tied with Guatemala for the lowest goal total going into the knockout round.  What is even more frustrating is that the opportunities are there, they just can't put them away.  If the US doesn't want to be the joke of the tournament, they need to continue doing what their doing, but finish in that final third.

Prediction:  This is perhaps the hardest one to call.  It could really become a blowout if the US continues to play the way they have been.  The speed of Jamaica may just be too much for the US defense.  But if the US plays the way they were expected to before the tournament began, this could be one of the best games of the tournaments.  The US has the slight nod based on their history and the fact that they will only squander so many opportunities.

Panama vs. El Salvador, 6:00 pm EDT

Panama: Panama has had an up and down tournament.  Their upset victory over the US put them in the drivers seat in the group, but needed a very late goal on Canada to secure the spot.  Their pace crushed the much slower and inexperienced US defenders and is what they have relied on the whole tournament. 

Their defense has been shaky letting in four goals, second most of the teams remaining.  But veteran striker Luis Tejada has been at the top of his game.  For years he has been the force behind the Panamanian attack and finally looks like he has helped put his team in a place to make a run for the cup.  If they can secure that defensive third, they have the potential to create some noise the rest of the way.

El Salvador: El Salvador was the last team to qualify into the knockout round squeezing by Canada with a goal differential of zero beating out the Canadian's own minus one.  They have been impressive on the offensive front scoring seven goals, but oppositely abysmal at the other end conceding seven, granted five of the seven were against Mexico. 

However, their other games have been somewhat impressive.  Had they not had a defensive breakdown with only seconds left against Costa Rica, they may have finished second in the group.  Veteran keeper Miguel Montes will have to do a better job of organizing the back line.  He is the oldest player on that defense and must provide the leadership to see them through.

Prediction: This should be an entertaining game.  Both teams rely on their attack to win.  However, the winner will be the one who can ultimately turn around their defense.  Panama's speed will have the advantage and ultimately get them the win.