2011 Preakness Stakes: 7 Horses That Should Make Animal Kingdom Nervous
The Kentucky Derby champion, Animal Kingdom, is steamrolling into the 136th running of the Preakness Stakes to be held this Saturday.
His dominating performance at Churchill Downs will easily make him the overwhelming favorite. The Morning Line is currently set at 2:1. That is a square price that may get bets down to 9:5, and at worst around 8:5. It's hard to see him going off at any odds over 2:1.
But..., there is always a but., there are some horses this Saturday that should make him and his connections a bit nervous in capturing that elusive second jewel of the Triple Crown.
As we look over the field of 14 horses, there looks to be seven that could prove to be Animal Kingdom's undoing come this weekend.
7. Flashpoint/Dance City
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I'm putting two horses together in this grouping for a single purpose. Pace. The Kentucky Derby fractions over the first six furlongs was the slowest pace for a Kentucky Derby in over 64 years. To put this reality into perspective, Zenyatta ran a faster six furlongs in her last to second place finish in last year's Breeder's Cup Classic in which she was beaten at the wire by the super colt Blame.
With that said, Flashpoint and Dance City should combine to effectively set a pace that is much faster than the one we saw at Churhill two weekends ago and allow for the closing style of Dialed In to be much more effective this time around (even while the Preakness is cutting back in distance).
Throw these two pacesetters in with Shackleford and you have to believe that we'll get some hot fractions up front for horses looking to try and steal this race from the lead. After all, the only chance Flashpoint and Dance City have to win this race is if they are up front.
6. Astrology
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Another of the new shooters in this race is Astrology. He could have ran in the Kentucky Derby if his connections deemed him ready to take on the mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs on May 7th. Instead, they pointed him towards the Grade II Jerome run at Aqueduct on April 18th, and he now comes into the Preakness as one of the freshest and most dangerous horses in the race.
Steve Asmussen is a brilliant trainer and this entry is starting to peak in a three-year-old campaign in which he is coming into his third race in his current cycle that many horse players view as a significant handicapping difference.
Astrology has raced against some of the best three-year-olds in the country, and this step up in class won't be as drastic as it is for the other new shooters that are in here. His stalking style is a dangerous one, and it was encouraging to see him closing nicely down the stretch in his last out. His rail post should also allow for him to have one of the shortest paths around Pimlico from gate to wire.
5. Sway Away
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The only thing that kept Sway Away out of the field in the Kentucky Derby was his graded stakes earnings. His connections ponied up the cash to enter this colt, but 20 other horses that entered the Derby had earned more cash in stakes races thus getting the nod over this supremely bred colt.
In his five career races, Sway Away has only gone off at odds over 3:1 a single time; his last out in the Blue Grass Stakes held at Oaklawn Park on April 16th. In that race, he had the lead at the top of the stretch only to get a bit rank and fade to a disappointing fourth, four and three quarters lengths behind winner Archarcharch and two very solid three-year-old rivals.
This is a dangerous horse that could be sitting on a big race. A big enough race that he could actually win if he has matured enough over the past five weeks. Breeding alone makes him an interesting entry, and with Garrett Gomez in the saddle you feel safe knowing he'll be given a solid ride throughout.
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4. King Congie
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Over his last four races, King Congie hasn't done a whole lot wrong. He narrowly missed in his last out in the Bluegrass Stakes losing out in a photo finish to Brilliant Speed and Twinspired.
Steady and solid improvement throughout his racing career is extremely encouraging. His biggest question is whether he will take to the dirt at Pimlico? But did't we just go through that story with Animal Kingdom not too long ago?
His stalking/closing style is encouraging and if he can stay out of trouble he could be a very large part of this race. A very dangerous horse that could go off at some very appealing odds. He could be sitting on a monster, and at the very least will likely be running a very similar race to that of Animal Kingdom while sitting on an inside post that could prove to be a nuisance for Animal Kingdom throughout the race.
3. Midnight Interlude
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Bob Baffert doesn't enter horses in graded stakes races that he feels aren't good enough to win. Midnight Interlude is no exception. While he ran a miserable race in the Kentucky Derby, his works before and after that race have shown he is capable of being a factor this weekend.
Likely to go off at 15:1 odds or greater, there have been fewer horses worth wagering on at lower odds than Midnight Interlude. It is important for him to be much closer to the lead than he was at Churchill, and if he can establish himself much closer to the pace in the first six furlongs, he should be a much bigger factor this Saturday than he was two weeks ago.
The shorter distance should also be a benefit to him, and he is the horse most likely to improve the most in his effort in the Kentucky Derby. Whether it will be good enough remains to be seen, but any colt trained by Bob Baffert and going off at double-digit odds is extremely attractive.
2. Dialed in
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The lukewarm favorite in the Kentucky Derby was the most hampered by the extremely slow fractions that unfolded in front of him. Looking to come back from dead last in that race, Dialed In did end up passing 11 of his rivals in coming up significantly short. Only Animal Kingdom ran a faster final four furlongs in the Kentucky Derby, and he didn't deal with the kind of traffic that Dialed In encountered.
As illustrated earlier, Flashpoint and Dance City almost assure that a quicker pace will unfold upfront this weekend. The faster the fractions the better the chances for Dialed In. He'll likely go off at similar odds as he did in the Kentucky Derby, and getting 5:1 odds on a colt that Nick Zito expresses a supreme amount of confidence in is extremely appealing.
If the fractions are torrid upfront, Dialed In could be the most dangerous in the field to unseat Animal Kingdom's hopes of pulling off the Triple Crown sweep.
1. Mucho Macho Man
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The longest, tallest and youngest horse in the field continues to mature. His finish in the Kentucky Derby was encouraging as he was reeling in second place finisher, Nehro, coming down the stretch.
Outside of the lack of victories in his career, Mucho Macho Man hasn't done a whole lot wrong in his nine lifetime starts.
He trained well before and after the Kentucky Derby, and his stalking style should come in very handy for a race that is expected to have a much faster pace.
I really wanted to make a case for Mucho Macho Man in the Kentucky Derby but just didn't feel he was ready to pop a big one just yet. While he finished a solid third, he was soundly defeated by Animal Kingdom.
However, of all the horses in the field, Mucho Macho Man could prove to be the most dangerous down the stretch and crush Animal Kingdom's triple crown hopes. If he makes another step forward in his maturation, he should be a very large part of this one in the final furlongs this Saturday.
Mucho Macho Man is the horse that should make Animal Kingdom and his connections the most nervous in the running of this weekend's Preakness Stakes.
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