NFL Free Agency 2011: Where the Top 10 Free Agents Should Go and Odds They Do
With NFL's free agency period on the horizon (hey horizons can be pretty far away) it feels like a good time to take a look at those available.
This year's class could be one of the worst ever in the eyes of one NFL Network analyst but that doesn't mean there won't be some quality additions in the right places.
Many people will try to predict where these free agents will go, I will try now to predict where would be the best hypothetical situation and explain my reasoning why I believe each player and team would benefit from the dealings.
Ahmad Bradshaw: Rams
1 of 10
Ahmad Bradshaw has little reason to remain loyal to the Giants after only becoming the starter during last season. He could easily look for new pastures once free agency begins after being benched again during the season.
Bradshaw did receive significant playing time during that period also but the presence of Brandon Jacobs will always make his role a little hazy.
A former Giant will likely be looking to offer him a more defined role, and potentially more money, in St. Louis. Steve Spagnuolo spent a lot of the St. Louis Rams' recent draft choices on weapons to help his young quarterback, Sam Bradford.
What he did not acquire through the draft however was a successor to Stephen Jackson and an upgrade over Kenneth Darby as the team's third down back.
Jackson may only be 27 years of age but you never know how his body will react to the severe beating it has taken over the years. Couple that with the fact that the new style of offense doesn't perfectly suit him and the Rams would love to pick up Bradshaw.
Bradshaw would split time for the next year or two with Jackson depending on when his body begins to decline. Bradshaw is a really good pass catching option out of the backfield which is exactly what the Rams are looking for.
He may not be Marshall Faulk but with a quality quarterback in Bradford and expert offensive co-ordinator in Josh McDaniels Bradshaw could flourish in St. Louis.
Likelihood of move: 50%
It's hard to say that this will happen because it might just be easier for Bradshaw to resign with the Giants. However the Rams do need a player of his type and the New York connections for Spagnuolo could come into play once again.
Zach Miller: Cardinals
2 of 10
Zach Miller is going to be the steal of this draft class. He is being significantly underrated by most of the media. He does not have huge numbers but you need to look at those numbers in context.
Miller signed for the Oakland Raiders in 2007. He instantly became the team's starter after being drafted. He was only 21 years old at the time but still managed three touchdowns and over 400 yards for what was a struggling run first offense.
Miller has often been the team's best receiver during his time in Oakland. For many years he was part of the most dysfunctional offense in the league as Jamarcus Russell came and went. He has retained a level of consistency in his play however averaging 56 receptions per season and 678 yards.
Those are pretty good numbers for a guy with little help in regards to quarterback play or other receivers on a bad run first team.
Miller has averaged over 10 yards per reception during each of his four seasons also which is impressive for a tight end. He is a shifty receiver but doesn't fret when assigned a blocking assignment either.
The Arizona Cardinals would be a great landing spot for Zach Miller. He would benefit from being part of a team that is going to throw the ball (presuming it doesn't trade Larry Fitzgerald) once it picks up a veteran quarterback. The Cardinals have only been lacking an impact tight end over the past few seasons as far as skill positions go.
He would be the third receiving option for the team behind Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston which would cause mathcup headaches for opposing defensive co-ordinators if they were to try to double team Fitzgerald.
Likelihood of move: 50%
I think the Raiders will make a big push to resign Miller. The Oakland organization and its fans understand his quality.
Whether the player wants to swap one rebuilding team for another will also be a deciding factor in this move.
Stephen Tulloch: Giants
3 of 10
Stephen Tulloch will be the most sought after linebacker in this year's free agent class. He may not be a star or much of a playmaker but he is a reliable young player with his best years ahead of him.
Tulloch has the capability to play both on the outside or inside of a 4-3 defense.
The Titans will be looking to resign him but he could get better offers from multiple teams around the league. One of those teams will likely be the New York Giants.
The Giants were too busy stealing a Prince from the kingdom of cornerbacks to fill their gaping need at linebacker. The selection of Prince Amukamara by the Giants in the first round was an astute decision that they have been commended for repeatedly. However they decided to take value in the second round again with Marvin Austin.
This continued until the fifth round when the team took linebacker Greg Jones from Michigan State. Jones isn't likely to step in right away and start though.
Stephen Tulloch would be a huge addition to the Giants defense that is only lacking better play at linebacker. In reality the team would prefer a play maker at the position but Tulloch gives them what they need. He would shift to the outside and replace another former Titan in Keith Bulluck.
Bulluck is 34 years age and has been playing in the NFL for what seems like 60 years. The Giants would have the makings of one of the best defenses in the league on paper with the addition of Tulloch while Tulloch would be glad to land in a stable organization.
Likelihood of move: 40%
Tulloch is an important player for the Titans. They will do all that they can to retain him but at the right price the Giants could outbid the Tennessee outfit.
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Davin Joseph: Buccaneers
4 of 10
Now is not the time to be running from Tampa Bay. Especially when you are an offensive player.
Davin Joseph should return to Tampa. He is 27 years of age so has plenty of time to play with this emerging offense. He has been a linchpin for the team so they will pay him handsomely.
With Josh Freeman looking like one of the best quarterbacks in the league—not just one of the best young ones—and LeGarette Blount running angry, Joseph is in the best position to maximize his reputation and earn a living.
Guard isn't the most celebrated of position but Joseph is a mauler that will gain more recognition on a league wide basis once the Buccaneers offense fully matures. The Buccaneers look like they have the makings of a playoff team in 2011. Joseph is a big part of the reason why.
Likelihood of move: 70%
As with all free agents, you can't rule out another team coming in with a massive offer. The Dallas Cowboys are rumored to be sniffing around Joseph which is a bad sign for the Bucs because of Jerry Jones' aggressive style.
Sidney Rice: Vikings
5 of 10
Sidney Rice should stay in Minnesota.
This one is simple. The Vikings need weapons for rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. Rice is loved by Minnesota fans for his big plays and jump ball ability. He perfectly fits in the Vikings system acting as the deep threat for play action as well as drawing the double team away from Percy Harvin.
His presence was missed critically during last season and the only reason the Vikings shouldn't pay him is if they don't trust his health.
Rice probably won't actually draw that much on the open market. He has only actually produced for one season. Yes he may have never had a chance before because of a combination of not being the starter and poor quarterback play but still he remains a one season wonder.
Injury cost him the chance to really impress potential suitors so it now makes the most sense for him to remain where he is comfortable for the next two to three years at least.
Likelihood of move: 60%
It's impossible to lock this move away because someone might bight on Rice's talent and offer him a bumper deal that the Vikings can't match.
Ray Edwards: Falcons
6 of 10
The Atlanta Falcons' trade for Julio Jones has made signing Ray Edwards a priority for this team.
They did not draft a pass rusher to complement John Abraham who has been carrying the team for what seems like his whole career. In fact, the Falcons didn't select a defensive line man until the seventh round of the 2011 draft.
This would have been okay if they had improved the porous pass defense that ranked 22nd in the league last year. They did not draft a single player to play in the secondary.
An impressive start to last season from Kroy Biermann eventually flittered to nothing as he notched sacks only against the Pittsburgh Steelers on the opening day and Carolina Panthers. The Falcons were hoping that Biermann would transition well to being a first time starter after notching five sacks as a backup last year but he didn't.
As such the team are in desperate need of bringing some balance to the pass rush. It is too easy for offenses to shut down just one premiere pass rusher in John Abraham. Abraham is good but he is not Julius Peppers. He can't beat double teams and as long as Atlanta don't have a formidable presence on the other side of the line they won't win a Super Bowl. Irrelevant of how good Julio Jones is.
Ray Edwards value on the free agent market may be diminished by the quality of his teammates in Minnesota but he is deserving of being the best defensive end available in free agency. Edwards has been a rock of consistency in Minnesota and is still only 26 years old.
He had eight sacks last season in fourteen games which would have been second only to Abraham for the Falcons. The Vikings' defensive line didn't actually perform very well last season and Edwards was probably the most consistent of the quartet.
Likelihood of move: 70%
Free agency is unpredictable but this is one of the most probable moves this year. Edwards fits an obvious need for a team that is competing right now.
The only way this move doesn't happen is if a team overpays Edwards and gives him the chance to be the main pass rusher which is something he craves after playing second fiddle to Jared Allen for his whole career.
Santonio Holmes: Bears
7 of 10
For lots of reasons, the Bengals are the perfect fit for Santonio Holmes. They need a receiver. They like troublesome divas. Holmes would get to play against the Steelers twice per season.
However the drafting of AJ Green changed all that.
There are two other teams that would be great fits for Holmes and it is difficult to determine which is the team he should sign for. The New England Patriots and Chicago Bears could do with Holmes big play ability.
Because it is more likely to happen, we will say that the Bears are the team that the former Super Bowl MVP should sign for.
Mike Martz offense is lacking a clear number one receiver. Johnny Knox is currently the best option that Jay Cutler has, and while he would be one of the best complement starters in the league, he is not good enough to repeatedly beat the opposition's best cover corner.
Holmes is the type of receiver that Martz loves. He is not freakishly tall in the mold of a Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson but he is a rangy player with a great wingspan. He can snatch the ball from the air, catching it in difficult positions. However he also has the agility to run complex routes and beat defenders with the ball in his hands.
Martz had great success with Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce in St. Louis. It's too early to say that Holmes is on their level but he has some similar characteristics that Martz could manipulate into a star receiver that Chicago haven't had for years.
The Patriots would have wanted Holmes for his ability to stretch the defense. Holmes is certainly capable of doing that for whatever team he signs for but he is better suited to running short and medium routes before looking to beat defenders with his elusiveness. With Knox and Hester scaring all NFL safeties Holmes would be landing in the perfect spot to take advantage of his skills.
Likelihood of move: 30%
I don't see the Jets letting Holmes go to another team. They are potentially going to lose Braylon Edwards and Brad Smith to free agency also. Smith's worth has diminished significantly because of the new kickoff rules while Holmes is simply a better player than Edwards.
The Jets will likely overpay Holmes to keep him in New York because of the volume of receivers they are losing.
If they don't, Holmes has already shown that he isn't scared of playing in cold weather environments while he would surely be excited by the prospect of playing in a pass first offense for the first time in his career as the number one receiver.
Johnathan Joseph: Lions
8 of 10
Lost amid the boisterousness of Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco's likely departures from Cincinnati, as well as the potential for Carson Palmer's retirement, the Bengals' biggest prize could actually be walking away from their defense.
Jonathan Joseph has been the team's best cornerback over the past couple of years since becoming a starter in 2007. He has definitely had his struggles in a Bengals uniform but for the most part he and Leon Hall have created one of the best cornerback tandems in the league.
The Bengals will do all that they can to resign both he and Hall, who is a free agent after next season, but it's going to be difficult because of the market for free agent cornerbacks nowadays.
There is a lot of talk about Joseph finding his way to Philadelphia to play for the Eagles but I think the best spot for the 27 year old would be in a different NFC division.
The Detroit Lions acquisition of Nick Fairley has given the team one of the best pass rushing defensive lines in football. The emerging Cliff Avril and aging Kyle Vanden Bosch will bookend the two dominant defensive tackles in Detroit very well this season.
However the Lions still have a major need in the secondary. Their cornerback problem wasn't totally solved by the refreshingly upbeat performances of Alphonso Smith last year. Joseph would come in and become the team's first choice cornerback instantly.
He would benefit vastly from the team's improved pass rush and bring a veteran presence to the secondary. The Lions defense needs a new playmaker while Joseph would be delighted to finally work with a consistent pass rush.
Likelihood of move: 60%
I can see this happening. Joseph probably won't want to return to the shambles that the Bengals have become. He would be able to get the money that he deserves in Detroit while also falling in a good position to succeed.
Free agency is hard to predict however, something as simple as Joseph not wanting to live in Detroit could collapse this marriage. That is all hypothetical of course.
DeAngelo Williams: Chargers
9 of 10
There is something about a bruising back such as DeAngelo Williams wearing powder blue that doesn't seem right. Williams is like a bowling ball and is easily the best running back on the free agent market during this offseason.
He is an elite back and needs to sign with a team that will use him to that degree.
The San Diego Chargers may be a pass first team with Philip Rivers at the helm but Williams would be a great fit in their offense. Darren Sproles is a free agent, and to be honest a smoke and mirrors mirage rather than a football player, while Ryan Mathews struggled during his rookie season.
It's too early to give up on Mathews but most teams in the league look to have two backs splitting carries which is something that Williams did effectively in Carolina with Jonathan Stewart.
Williams has never been a great receiver out of the backfield but he has never actually been afforded much of an opportunity. He predominantly carried the ball when he was part of the run first Panthers' offense while the team never really had a good passing game for him to complement in the first place.
Williams would bring an explosion to the runningback position that Mike Tolbert was lacking last season while also being more reliable than the then rookie Mathews did. The Chargers would become one of the most balanced and complete offenses in the league if they signed Williams.
Likelihood of move: 30%
This is certainly possible. The Chargers won't be resigning Darren Sproles in all likelihood. They need to add to the running game from last season and general manager AJ Smith showed that he still holds value in the position after trading so much for Mathews last year. Mathews really needed to show more than he did in his rookie season for the team to fully commit to him entering this year.
The biggest obstacle to this move will be Williams himself. He will probably have to leave some money, but not that much, on the table elsewhere to sign in San Diego. The prospect of being part of a winning team once again could sway him to become the eventual heir to Ladanian Tomlinson.
Nnamdi Asomugha: Steelers
10 of 10
Nnamdi Asomugha is a very very rich man. He is not leaving Oakland because of monetary gain.
When you listen to various interviews with Asomugha, you get the sense of a man with much more substance than a player just looking to get rich. Asomugha repeatedly refers to the Raiders' ability to win football games when he was asked about his future over the past two to three years.
Asomugha obviously wants a Super Bowl ring and I don't doubt that he would be willing to give up a huge amount of money to get one. He has nothing to gain from being overpaid at this point in his career, he is already as rich as a small country.
He was franchise tagged in 2008 before signing a contract that gave him $28.5 million for the 2009 and 2010 seasons. His contract then voided making him a free agent today.
Asomugha in my view probably won't go to the highest bidder (sorry Jerry Jones). Asomugha will go to the team that gives him the best chance of winning. A team that also has a need for a cornerback.
Asomugha may not perfectly fit the system in Pittsburgh but the Steelers would still love to have him at a cut price. His inordinate amount of talent would allow him to fit in their zone based defense while also playing more man coverage to benefit from his skill set.
The Steelers are the best team in need of corner help. If Asomugha joined that defense, where would quarterbacks throw the ball? They already must note the positioning of Troy Polamalu. No quarterback would have enough time against that vaunted pass rush to avoid Polamalu if he only had two thirds of the field available to him.
Pittsburgh's biggest problem defensively, and as a team, is the cornerback position. If they had good corner play, without contemplating what it would be like with an elite corner like Asomugha, they would be primed for another Super Bowl run.
Likelihood of move: 5%
While Asomugha is the most likely of players to take a pay cut in favor of going to a better team, that remains a rarity in the NFL. He would have to turn down much much more money in other places before signing with the Steelers. The fact that he is not a perfect fit in the Steelers' zone scheme either makes this move unlikely.
Nonetheless the glimmer of hope is there as long as the Steelers' corner troubles, outside of Ike Taylor who is a free agent himself, continue.
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