2011 Kentucky Derby Odds: What Are the Odds for Derby Kitten

With the defection of Toby's Corner after a Tuesday morning injury, a spot in the field of 20 opened up for Derby Kitten, the winner of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes two weeks ago at Keeneland.

While he likely won't make much of an impact on the field, the loss of Toby's Corner, fourth choice in my line on Monday, will alter the odds significantly and lower the prices on the other favorites.

As such, I've offered an addendum to my original odds, posted here with a breakdown on each horse, and offered a short analysis of Derby Kitten:

The Long-Shots

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LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 01: Uncle Mo works out along side Stay Thirsty during the morning exercise session in preparation for the 137th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1, 2011 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

These three horses should still be the three longest prices in the field, and I'm not convinced their odds will change that much. Click on the horse's name for my original analysis from Monday:

20. Watch Me Go (99-1)

19. Decisive Moment (80-1)

18. Stay Thirsty (50-1)

17. Derby Kitten (50-1)

Like Dialed In, Derby Kitten likes to take himself to the back of the field. He was last early in his last two starts, including a victory in the Lexington Stakes, although they were small fields and he was never as far back as Dialed In has been. I expect Derby Kitten to rate himself in the back four or five of the field, but well ahead of Dialed In.

Now, as far as form goes, he's a complete non-player. He hated the dirt in his only start on it, never getting into the race. He finished seventh of 10, beaten 27 1/2 lengths, after tiring in that effort behind former Derby contender To Honor And Serve in a race originally scheduled for the turf course at Belmont.

He came back two weeks later on a yielding turf course and finished second, one spot ahead of fellow turf/synthetics specialist and Derby participant Brilliant Speed.

While he has improved over his past few starts, those efforts have come on the turf and artificial surfaces. He clearly did not like the dirt in his only start on it, and that is to be expected from a son of Kitten's Joy. Dean's Kitten, the most successful offspring of Kitten's Joy, was a non-competitive 14th in last year's Derby and has done all his good running on synthetics and turf. His form is consistent with the majority of Kitten's Joy's progeny.

This horse has no chance here and his odds will reflect it. He's not worth a play even above 50-1.

Other Longer Shots

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LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 01: Santiva works out during the morning exercise session in preparation for the 137th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1, 2011 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Again, for analyses of each of these horses, click on his name:

16. Twinspired (45-1)

15. Comma to the Top (40-1)

14. Twice the Appeal (40-1)

13. Santiva (30-1)

12. Brilliant Speed (30-1)

11. Shackleford (25-1)

10. Animal Kingdom (25-1)

Lower-Priced Long-Shots

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LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 04: Soldat runs trains the morning exercise session in preparation for the 137th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4, 2011 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Here are the mid-priced horses. Click on the horse to see my analysis:

9. Midnight Interlude (20-1)

8. Pants On Fire (18-1)

7. Master of Hounds (15-1)

6. Soldat (12-1)

5. Mucho Macho Man (10-1)

The Favorites

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LOUISVILLE, KY - MAY 04: ArchArchArch trains during the morning exercise runs session in preparation for the 137th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4, 2011 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

And with the scratch of Toby's Corner, a horse that was going to be coming from around mid-pack, here are the favorites again:

4. Archarcharch (8-1) - As both Toby's Corner and Archarcharch had a similar racing form, the scratch could work to the benefit of Archarcharch. Toby's Corner is one less horse that will try to make his move as the horses hit the top of the stretch. Archarcharch should be settled in the front half of the field and if all goes to plan, will take the lead with 3-16th to go. The only question will be if he can hold on.

3. Dialed In (6-1) - From people I talk to and the media hype I've been reading, I actually think Nehro will take a lot of the money reserved for Dialed In. Dialed In will almost assuredly be the morning line favorite, but when they go to the gate, I think it will be Uncle Mo (if he runs; more on that later in the week) or Nehro. This odds change has more to do with perceived betting than the scratch.

2. Nehro (5-1) - Nehro was going to make his move long after Toby's Corner was, so the scratch shouldn't have too much of a factor in how he runs his race. He stays at 5-1.

1. Uncle Mo (9-2) - In the end, I think the money will land on Uncle Mo. With no good speed horses in this field, Uncle Mo and Soldat should take over the lead from third and fourth, passing the tiring Comma to the Top and Shackleford. The question for both of them remains whether they can hold on.

More to come throughout the week, and please tune in tonight to Obscure Sports Weekly at 10pm ET as I break down the Derby field in full with special guest Ray Paulick. Ray is the editor of the Paulick Report and former editor of BloodHorse Magazine. The show will be archived all week in case you cannot listen live.