2011 NFL Draft: What Experts Say About the Arizona Cardinals' First Round Pick

In an earlier article, I wrote about the one player the Arizona Cardinals needed to avoid in the upcoming NFL draft.

The "experts" must have missed that piece, and are projecting that the Arizona Cardinals will take a quarterback in the first round of the 2011 NFL draft.  As much as the Cardinals need to answer their QB question, fans shouldn't expect Blaine Gabbert to help improve the team any time soon.

Gabbert had a solid completion percentage of 63.4 percent in 2011.  He also had...well...no, sorry.  That's about it.  

His yards per attempt in 2009 were decent at 8.07 (similar to Matt Leinart, who was at 8.06 his first year as a starter).  But while Leinart's numbers went up into his second and final year as a starter, Gabbert's numbers dropped, posting a YPA of just 6.71 his junior year.  

For fans that haven't connected the dots back to Leinart, a high completion percentage and low yards per attempt points to one critical issue with Gabbert's game: he didn't like to throw the ball down the field, and when he did he usually failed.  Instead, he opted for checking down to receivers close to the line of scrimmage.  

Most of his offense was bubble screens and swing passes to the RB, along with quick slants to one of five receivers.

Yes, just one year after releasing Matt Leinart for throwing too many check-down passes, the experts have the Cardinals grabbing a quarterback high in the draft with the same ailment.  One guess on what Larry Fitzgerald would do at the end of the season when told to run a "go" route...

A few other numbers to consider (2009 to 2010 production), all of which are towards the bottom of the top 12 QBs in this class:

TDs:  24 to 16 (Chase Daniel had 39 in 2008)
INTs: 9 to 9
Rating: 140.45 to 127.03
Comp: 262 to 301
Yards: 3,593 to 3,186

As much as analysts want to find issues with other QBs, Gabbert is getting a pass on his significant drop in production. I charted two games where I had footage of every offensive snap, and just over half of his passes were completed within five yards of the line of scrimmage.  Part-way through the first game, I had to add a new stat—the number of passes that were well short of the first down marker on third down.  

Gabbert has been getting a bit more negative attention over the last few days, and the Cardinals have expressed little interest in him.  Keep the faith, Cardinals fans.  Patrick Peterson may very well be on the board, and Bill Bidwill may decide he doesn't want to pay the premium price for drafting a QB early.

The team may also start to listen to the head coach, and give Ken Whisenhunt the QB he needs, and it isn't Gabbert.

Here is how the experts mocked the Cardinal's pick at No. 5:

Rob Rang:  Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Chad Reuter:  Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Todd McShay:  Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Mel Kiper: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Walter Football: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Scott Wright:  Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
Don Banks:  Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M
Darin Pike:  Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
Russ Lande: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU