NFL Draft 2011: Predicting Which Conferences Will Have the Most Picks in Round 1
With the Annual NFL Player Selection Meeting starting in just two days, we thought it would be fun to run through a mock first round from the perspective of college football. I mean that in a sense of seeing exactly what conferences will have the most first rounders on Thursday night.
We all know that the SEC is the top dog conference, but does that mean the first round will be stocked heavy with SEC picks? What about the Big Ten? Pac-12? Big 12?
See what I mean?
Exactly where are these first-round picks coming from is the goal to find out, and maybe we can see if there is a trend where NFL looks to draft players early from a certain conference.
Let's get going.
32. Grennbay Packers: Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple (MAC)
1 of 32
The MAC sees another player get drafted in the first round. A mid-major or "little" conference, the MAC has produced its fair share of talent over the years, especially at the QB position.
The Packers take Wilkerson here after he goes through a surprising drop. Wilkerson fits the Packers' 30 front defense as he can come in and man the five technique spot for years to come with his 6'4", 315 pound frame, good strength and athletic ability.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas (Big 12)
2 of 32
The Steelers have needs at both corner and safety. Their defense is great but really it is the front seven that is strong and the back end struggles have been overshadowed by the amazing play of Troy Polomalu.
Williams has the ability to factor as both a corner and safety. 6'1", 195 pounds, Williams can learn the zone and off-man coverage principles the Steelers run on the back end and fit in nicely.
30. New York Jets: Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor (Big 12)
3 of 32
I think the Jets pass on Wilkerson for the stouter Taylor at this pick. Taylor is a 6'3", 330 pounder that can play either nose tackle or end for Rex Ryan's pressure defense in New York.
The Jets play in the AFC east where it gets colder and colder as the season wears on. So teams will look to control the game more on the ground. Sure, the Patriots are a spread team, but if you look closely, even they are searching for ways to improve their running game.
Taylor helps shore up the Jets defensive line and run fits.
.png?w=256)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
29. Chicago Bears: Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State (SEC)
4 of 32
Sherrod seems to have a niche in the draft as a mid to late first-round pick. He's a 6'5", 320 pounder that can play left or right tackle both equally and effectively.
We all know the Bears need to shore up their offensive line. Jay Cutler got hit nearly every time he dropped back last season and getting Sherrod to Mike Tice will be a nice plus for his development.
28. New England Patriots: Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor (Big 12)
5 of 32
When I worked for the Giants scouting department, I remember my boss telling me why the G-Men were so confident that they could beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl: The Giants felt they could control the line of scrimmage vs. the Pats' offensive front.
Aside from Logan Mankins, there really is not a great presence on the interior front of New England's offensive line. Bill Belichick takes Watkins here in the late first round, just like he did Mankins a few years back.
27. Atlanta Falcons: Jabaal Beard, DE, Pittsburgh (Big East)
6 of 32
The Falcons have been putting out feelers that says they are in the market for a receiver, but no pass catcher fits their slot's value so they in turn wait in the second round to nab their man. Thomas Dimitroff has been schooled by the Patriots' brass, so he will let the board come to him.
The Falcons also need pass rush help. John Abraham is still one of the better men in the league at getting after the passer, but he needs help opposite of him. Beard gives the Dirty Birds a 6'4", 265 pound rushing end with a good get off and a high ceiling.
26. Baltimore Ravens: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (ACC)
7 of 32
Coming out of high school, Harris and Patrick Peterson were neck and neck as far as who was the top corner prospect in their class. Today, Peterson is not only the top corner, but may be the top overall player.
However, Harris was victim of poor coaching and development at Miami. If you notice, Miami players in recent years have enjoyed better success in the NFL after leaving Coral Gables under Randy Shannon. Sam Shields is a prime example.
The Ravens have to begin getting younger, especially on the back end and Harris gives them solid value here.
25. Seattle Seahawks: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa (Big Ten)
8 of 32
Soon enough, NFC West teams are going to have to begin building their teams on how to beat the Rams. Yes, the Rams. They have the best QB already in this whacky division, but Sam Bradford looks like a future Pro Bowler.
The best way to beat a QB is to have a great pass rush, and the Seahawks take notice of Clayborn here. Clayborn will be a solid pro, someone who can get after the passer but also play the run with some stoutness for Pete Carroll.
24. New Orleans Saints: Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri (Big 12)
9 of 32
After all the debate in regards to whether or not Smith is athletic enough to play stand up outside linebacker in a 304 scheme, he goes to a 40 front team like the Saints.
Smith has an extremely high ceiling, but the end needs some seasoning. The Saints need to rev up their pass rush, and while Smith gets coached up as a rookie, he can come in and be a sub-package rusher in his first year for Sean Payton.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Nate Solder, OT, Colorado (Big 12)
10 of 32
It hurts me to say this because I've watched him play since his high school days at Long Beach poly, but Winston Justice just is not getting it done. This isn't about giving up six sacks vs. Osi Umenyiora a few years back, but Justice has been inconsistent since then.
Andy Reid has a solid left tackle in Jason Peters, but with Michael Vick being left handed, making shore the right island is manned a priority. Reid takes Solder and provides Starship-7 with solid book end protectors.
22. Indianapolis Colts: Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin (Big Ten)
11 of 32
The last first round offensive tackle to come from Camp Randall is a franchise player and All-Pro. Will Carimi repeat the notion himself? Maybe.
The Colts know that not taking Roger Saffold last year was a mistake, as Peyton Manning's protection last season was suspect. Manning probably blocked for himself and shielded some of the offensive linemen's issues with certain protection calls.
Carimi gives the Colts an immediate starter at left tackle.
21. Kansas City Chiefs: Akeen Ayers, OLB, UCLA (Pac-12)
12 of 32
The chiefs could take Watkins or Taylor here, but I think there is some depth in this draft as far as offensive linemen and defensive tackles. Ayers gives the Chiefs another pass rusher for their 3-4 defense.
Scott Pioli is one of the elite personnel men in the NFL. He will let the board come to him, but don't be shocked to see him trade out of this slot for more picks or perhaps to go up and nab a player that he likes who is falling a bit.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
13 of 32
The Bucs have been known to take some chances in the draft over the years. They took Josh Freeman in the first round when most had him as a second-round pick, and also Dexter Jackson was a second-round reach in 2008.
However, many teams are scared of Bowers because of his knee concerns. When Healthy, Bowers is one of the top five players in this draft. The Bucs take him here, in hopes his knee is fine. If so, then they have a pass rusher to terrorize Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
19. New York Football Gaints: Mike Pouncey, OG/OC, Florida (SEC)
14 of 32
My former employer needs to address their offensive line. The main five are aging and fighting injuries. Rich Seubert and Shaun O'Hara, especially. Shawn Andrews has back problems, while Will Beatty, Chris Snee and David Diehl still appear to be holding up.
Getting a player like Pouncey here, who fits value and need is a grand slam for Jerry Reese and Marc Ross. Pouncey can come in and either man the pivot or play guard early. He has Pro Bowl potential.
18. San Diego Chargers: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State (Big Ten)
15 of 32
Listen, AJ Smith doesn't care what you think. He doesn't. He runs the Chargers how he sees fit and builds the team for the team, not the fans or the media. We all may think this is a reach, but it's not like Smith will care.
Heyward can come into San Diego, line up as a five-technique end in their 30 front, and do work. He's strong enough to hold up in the scheme and also has some athleticism to get after the passer a bit for a 3-4 end.
17. New England Patriots: J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin (Big Ten)
16 of 32
There used to be a mantra around the NFL that the Patriots valued the defensive line as the core of their defense. But in the past few drafts, Bill Belichick has used selections mainly on the back seven.
Now, Belichick comes back to the defensive line and takes the full tilt Watt. He can come to Boston, man a five-technique spot and factor vs. the Jets' ground and pound offensive attack.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue (Big Ten)
17 of 32
Brian Kelly named Kerrigan as one of the best players Notre Dame faced last season and is a fan of Kerrigan. He's a hard working, lunch pail type of player that Gene Smith covets.
Last year, Smith took Tyson Alualu as he was a conservative pick. Smith wants solid players for the Jaguars, and Kerrigan especially fits that mold.
15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama (SEC)
18 of 32
I will say this: Do not be shocked if Andy Dalton goes here. But in this mock, I have Ingram in this slot as he can jump start the Dolphin rushing attack. Ricky William and Ronnie Brown are not the "Phins" future plans, and a young back like Ingram can give the running game some juice.
The Dolphins do need to shore up their line, but I've always said, if you find a running back that you think has a chance to be special, take him. Ingram has a chance.
14. St. Louis Rams: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois (Big Ten)
19 of 32
The Rams are dying to see Julio Jones fall to them at No.14 but I think Jones goes earlier than their slot. If Billy Devaney and Steve Spagnuolo want Jones, they need to move up.
But if not, I think Liuget gives the Rams 40 front, attacking scheme a play making three-technique defensive tackle. The Rams need all the talent they can get. The Roster only has a few players that would be able to start for other teams.
Getting Liuget not only adds talent, but fills a need.
13. Detroit Lions: Tyron Smith, OT, USC (Pac-12)
20 of 32
Smith could see himself go higher, perhaps at No.9 Dallas but I have him here for now. I've watched Smith play since he was a two-time NIKE Camp MVP in high school.
He played right tackle at USC, but has the feet, athletic ability, quickness, mirror ability, balance and agility to easily play left tackle. 6'5" and around 305 pounds, Smith has the tools to develop into a Pro Bowl left tackle.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Cam Jordan, DE, Cal (Pac-12)
21 of 32
The Vikes don't really need a defensive end...or do they? Ray Edwards is due to cash in on a big pay day whenever free agency starts, and the Vikes likely will scoff at what he wants long term.
A replacement will be needed, although Brian Robison is in the fold. However, getting a player like Jordan will add versatility to Leslie Frazier's Tampa-2 style scheme. Jordan can play either the left or right end position, and he can also kick inside and rush from the middle in sub-packages.
11. Houston Texans: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska, Nebraska 9 (Big 12)
22 of 32
Word has it that Rick Smith is trying to do all he can to move up and position Houston to select Patrick Peterson. Smith will likely need to get as high as No.4 to ensure he gets the LSU pass defender.
However, if Smith stays pat and waits for the No.11 slot, I think he will find another elite corner here in Amukamara. 6'1" and over 200 pounds, Amukamara is a physical corner that is also athletic. Houston's pass defense last year was not only the worst in the league, but one of the worst in NFL history.
10. Washington Redskins: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama (SEC)
23 of 32
Mike Shanahan's reputation has taken a huge blow for how he's handled things in Washington. And it should have, because Mike and his son Kyle have handled players very poorly thus far.
However, on the field, Shanahan has many needs, but has to take the best available player, which at this point will be Jones. The Redskins have pedestrian receivers outside Santana Moss, and Jones has the tools to develop into a No.1 receiver down the line in DC.
9. Dallas Cowboys: Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College (ACC)
24 of 32
Many point to the Cowboys and say they need offensive line help. True, but it appeared that Doug Free proved me and many others wrong last year at left tackle. He seems like a solid player.
That is why I think Jerry Jones passes on Tyron Smith and goes for Castonzo, who can kick to the right side and book end the Dallas offensive front with Free. If Free ever begins to struggle, Castonzo can move over to the left side and take over.
8. Tennessee Titans: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn (SEC)
25 of 32
I'll also say this again: Do not be shocked if Andy Dalton goes here either. But with Fairley, a player once considered the potential No.1 overall pick, the Titans get a tough, nasty player who fits what they've been about for years.
I know Jeff Fisher is gone, but Mike Munchak and Mike Reinfeldt will keep the same overall mentality of the team's mental make up much the same. Fairley gives the Titans their best interior defensive lineman since, shhh, Albert Haynesworth.
7. San Francisco 49ers: Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina (ACC)
26 of 32
Many say if Quinn would have been able to show off his skills and play college football this past season, we may be talking about him going No.1 overall. He's that good.
Jim Harbaugh feels he can win with Alex Smith, and I think giving Patrick Willis some defensive help in the form of a pass rusher would work wonders for the 49ers. Besides, as I mentioned before, NFC west teams need to start getting pass rushers lined up to get after Sam Bradford.
6. Cleveland Browns: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU (SEC)
27 of 32
A bit of a surprise, but hear me out. Last year the Browns took Joe Haden with their first-round pick and Haden looks like a sheer future stand out corner. With the NFL being such a pass happy league, why not get another No.1 corner for your defense?
Having two standout cover men in Haden and Peterson would take pressure off each other as they would not be charged with shutting the No.1 receiver for the opposing team every down, series, game and week.
Plus Peterson and Josh Cribbs as your two kick off returners in Cleveland? Wow.
5. Arizona Cardinals: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M (Big 12)
28 of 32
This is a flip flop pick in most drafts in relation to No. 3 with the Bills. But I've gotten word that Arizona isn't as high on Blaine Gabbert as many think. While I think he could still be selected if available by Rod Graves and Ken Whisenhunt, I believe the player they covet is Miller.
6'3", 245 pounds and with perhaps the quickest first step of any pass rusher in this draft, Miller is expected to have an immediate impact wherever he goes. Joey Porter has clearly become a player whose bark is bigger than his bite, and getting some help in their pass rush is a plus.
Another pass rusher in the NFC West to combat Bradford.
4. Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia (SEC)
29 of 32
Green is the top pass catching threat in this draft and has the tools to be an All-Pro receiver for years to come. He has been called the most complete receiver prospect to come into the NFL since Calvin Johnson.
The Bengals are starting over. Let's face it. Chad Ochocinco is as good as gone when the lockout ends and Carson Palmer is as serious as a heart attack about retiring if still a Bengal come season.
Green gives the Bengals a player to build around for the future with hopes of landing either Andy Dalton or Christian Ponder in Round 2.
3. Buffalo Bills: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri (Big 12)
30 of 32
The Bills don't need Gabbert per se, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is a solid QB, but their fan base needs someone to get excited about and Gabbert fits what Chan Gailey likes to do on offense.
Gailey loves athletic QBs who can run, and if you've watched tape on the 6'5", 230 pound Gabbert, you can easily see he is a running threat. Combine that with a rifle arm and great accuracy, and you have a QB who could be special.
Gabbert won't need to play right away as Fitzpatrick can man the QB spot while he learns the pro game.
2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama (SEC)
31 of 32
John Fox is a defensive minded coach. So clearly he sees the Broncos are foul on defense, especially in the middle. I would not be shocked to see him, John Elway and Brian Xanders take Patrick Peterson here at all.
Yet shoring up the interior defensive front with a tackle that could be a force for 10 years is too enticing to pass up on. Dareus is not the athlete Fairley is, but is stronger at the point of attack and also is better technique wise.
1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn (SEC)
32 of 32
Whether they admit it or not, Marty Hurney and Ron Rivera were both a bit annoyed Andrew Luck stayed in school at Stanford. But yet, they need to re-start the franchise and excite the fan base plus get a player that potentially become a sheer force in the league.
Jimmy Clausen probably deserves more time to develop as last year's Panther squad was awful all over, not just Clausen. But Newton is a player who can potentially be a once in a generation type of player.
He has a better natural stroke than Vince Young and Tim Tebow, so don't talk to me about comparing him to them. Newton has a high ceiling as a passer and is a charismatic person. This pick will come down to how great Newton wants to be.
If he wants to be the best, then he can. If he is content with having millions of dollars and being a so-so player. He will.
.png?w=480)
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
