NFL Draft 2011: Kansas City Chiefs Draft Board Projection, Round One
Five days remain before the biggest off-season event for any sport kicks off. Draft prospects will sit on stage and football nuts the world over will glue themselves to their TV, computer or iPhone to track the trades, speculation, praise and criticism on each team's every move.
Oh, and don't forget the actual person being chosen in the draft.
For the scouts, coaches, and team executives, however, this week has been very long in coming. Each team's staff has spent the last few months drowning in a deluge of game footage, combine results, and interviews to dissect each prospect's physical ability, football acumen, and emotional drive. General managers - especially for the first round - are going to place a multi-million dollar bet on the odds that one person will help put (or keep) their team in the playoffs.
In preparing for this, teams build their draft board, stocking it up with players they expect (or hope) to see available when their turn comes around, or even players they'd be willing to trade up for.
Here's a look at my version of Kansas City's first round draft board.
First Choice: Defensive End J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
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No, defensive end isn't really a "need" for the Chiefs heading into the 2011 season. Yes, they already have a pair of defenders in those positions who were drafted in the top five picks of their respective seasons.
But J.J. Watt embodies everything Kansas City looks for in a player, especially since Scott Pioli took over as GM. The Wisconsin product has both the tangible and intangible tools to excel in the NFL. He has strength and quickness, and a strong, intense motor.
And a guy who starts his own charity organization in college to help underfunded schools should be the antithesis to character concerns
What's more, his frame makes him a prime candidate for the 3-4 defense. With his size (6'6", 290lbs), it's not completely ludicrous to envision him with another 20 pounds playing nose tackle.
The biggest problem the Chiefs face in drafting him isn't their lack of need, though; the problem is someone else will likely snag him before Kansas City gets the chance
The New England Patriots have the 17th pick, and a need for a 3-4 defensive end. And should New England pass on him, odds are good the San Diego Chargers won't make the same mistake at #19. The Chiefs, at #21, are unlikely to have him drop into their lap.
If he does, though, Kansas City could have a crowd at defensive end... which is not necessarily a bad thing.
Second Choice: Outside Linebacker Ryan Kerrigan, Purdue
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Another player in the new Kansas City mold, Ryan Kerrigan is an aggressive, relentless playmaker who can adapt to different schemes.
An academic All-American, Kerrigan has the intellect to learn quickly and execute precisely—a skill that would come immediately into play as Kansas City employs him as an outside linebacker to couple with sack leader Tamba Hali.
This isn't exactly a position of need for the Chiefs, as defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel has been grooming Andy Studebaker to be incumbent Mike Vrabel's successor. A talent like Kerrigan would be hard to ignore.
And much like Hali, Kerrigan would need time to improve his coverage skills. A larger obstacle for the Chiefs, however, is that Kerrigan has been rising in stock rather than falling, much like J.J. Watt. Odds are, Kerrigan will not be available when Kansas City picks at 21.
Third Choice: Offensive Tackle Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin
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The importance of the Chiefs addressing deficiencies at the tackle position is something I'm still not completely sold on.
With developing tackles Branden Albert and Barry Richardson, Kansas City has already built the best rushing offense in the NFL. Furthermore, their passing attack flourished compared to recent years.
But successful teams draft talent and potential over strict need, and Gabe Carimi has both of the former. A four-year starter at Wisconsin, Carimi earned multiple accolades, including the Outland Trophy in 2010, awarded to college football's best interior lineman. Carimi was also an academic All-American his junior year and a 2010 Wisconsin Badgers co-captain.
Carimi has been projected all over the mid-to-late first round, and would be an amazing asset for the Chiefs should he still be available at the 21st pick. Carimi would likely push Richardson to a reserve role at right tackle, and could eventually force Albert out of the left tackle position - possibly to left guard following the eventual retirement of Brian Waters.
Third (and a Half) Choice: Colorado offensive tackle Nate Solder - Another solid tackle prospect, Solder has been climbing the boards recently and could be considered if Carimi is unavailable.
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Fourth Choice: Nose Tackle Phil Taylor, Baylor
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Arguably the best need-to-talent ratio, Phil Taylor could be a great benefit for the Chiefs. Considered to be the best pure nose tackle in the draft Taylor could anchor Kansas City's defensive line for years to come.
Pioli helped build New England's dominant defense with a similar pick before, Pro Bowler Vince Wilfork.
Taylor has a number of issues which will likely drop him on the Chiefs' draft board, however. First, Taylor started his college career with Penn State, but was kicked off the team in 2007 for academic and personal conduct reasons.
Additionally, Taylor previously had issues with keeping his weight down. When he reported to camp for Baylor, he weighed in at 385 pounds.
While both of these issues appear to be in Taylor's past, Pioli will likely be cautious with this year's draft as he looks to build on the Chiefs' successful 2010 draft. Nose tackles in general can be a "high risk, high reward" prospect, and Taylor could be considered that even moreso.
Fifth Choice: Trade Down
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Even if Kansas City misses the opportunity on a number of their top prospects, there are still plenty of talented players to select from. However, this year's draft should provide plenty of options for teams looking to trade down and stockpile picks for future years.
With upwards of 11 teams looking for their next starting quarterback, some teams will likely make a hefty offer to trade back into the first round and beat the competition. Out of prospects Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, and Ryan Mallett, at least two should be available at the 21st pick. The Chiefs could find themselves the beneficiary of another team's desperation, and pick up another first round pick for 2012 as well as a second round pick this year.
Kansas City trading up, however, seems rather unlikely as the Chiefs still need to improve a handful of starting positions as well as build their depth. Look for Kansas City to increase their number of draft picks rather than trade them away.
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