Fantasy Baseball Sell High Candidate: Asdrubal Cabrera

Entering the year, did anyone expect much of a power display from Asdrubal Cabrera? 

The truth of the matter is why would you have?

• He entered 2011 with 18 career home runs in 1,415 AB
• His major league career high was six homers, doing that in 2008 and 2009
• He had 27 HR in 1,655 career minor league at-bats

Why exactly would we expect anything other than the norm from Cabrera? Well, we’ve got anything but that over the first 11 games of the season. Through 45 at-bats, he is hitting .289 with four homers, 10 RBI, eight runs and one SB. 

There’s just no way anyone could’ve seen it coming.

What fantasy owners have to ask themselves is if there is any chance that Cabrera can come reasonably close to his terrific start. 

The quick answer would be not a chance, but let’s dive in a little bit deeper.

First of all Cabrera’s HR/FB is an astounding 26.7 percent. Just look at his numbers the previous four seasons:

• 2007: 6.3 percent
• 2008: 6.7 percent
• 2009: 4.7 percent
• 2010: 3.0 percent

Is it possible that, at 25 years old, he has gained some power? Of course, but let’s not get caught up in a hot streak over a small sample size. 

Yes, he has shown an increased flyball rate (42.9 percent), but given his history, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go homerless for his next 40 games (not an actual prediction), so let’s not get caught up here.

What is concerning is the fact that it appears like he may be trying to swing for the fences. Again, it’s a small sample size but after posting a strikeout rate of 15.7 percent in 2010, he is currently sitting at 24.4 percent in 2011. 

If he can’t get it under control, when the ball stops flying over the fence the average is going to plummet. He’s already at a BABIP of .290, so while you can expect a little more luck, don’t look for a huge increase to help buoy him there.

The fact of the matter is we are talking about just 45 AB. At the end of the day, Cabrera has shown us what he is. 

Yes, there is room for some growth, but don’t put too much stock in the early-season success.

Prior to the season I noted that Cabrera brings little power and little speed and, despite his start, I am not wavering from that stance. His HR/FB is outrageous, especially given his career marks and there is little chance of him maintaining anything reasonably close. 

Maybe he reaches 10 HR, maybe he gets to 12, but considering what he’s already given you, it’s not really anything impressive from here on out.

If there is someone in your league who was high on him and is willing to overpay to get him, now may be the perfect time to sell high.

What are your thoughts? Is there any chance that Cabrera keeps producing at a rate even close to this?  Would you sell high on him?