2011 MLB Predictions: Breakout Stars, Standings, Awards, Playoffs and More
Now that two weeks of games are in the books for Major League Baseball, we have an idea, albeit a small sample size, of how teams are looking thus far, who the breakout stars could be, and early injuries that could play a role in determining final outcomes.
While it’s fun to watch several teams get off to fast starts in spite of projections to the contrary (Cleveland, Baltimore, Kansas City, Colorado), and other teams stumbling out of the gate who were expecting much more (Boston, San Francisco, Minnesota), just exactly how will the season play out for them?
By now, you have no doubt seen many preseason predictions regarding who will win each division, what stars will take the major awards, and even prospects who could make an impact.
Here at Bleacher Report, we like to not only add our preseason predictions, but also do predictions based on a small sample size as well, although I will, of course, reserve the right to alter predictions down the road.
So, after two weeks of play, here are your early/in-season predictions for division winner, player award winners, All-Star players and postseason victors.
For continuing coverage of Major League Baseball, follow Doug on Twitter @Sports_A_Holic.
1. American League East- Final Standings
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While much has been said and written about the Boston Red Sox and their offseason acquisitions (Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez, Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler), the Sox have stumbled out of the gate to a 2-8 start, and their pitching has been, well, in a word, horrendous. Ditto for Tampa Bay, who is still reeling from the effects of the Manny Ramirez retirement/admission of guilt.
The Yankees have thus far hit well, and Mark Teixeira is off to a MUCH better start than last season. However, pitching depth remains a major concern, and CC Sabathia has turned in three quality starts with one loss to show for it.
The Orioles have shown life under manager Buck Showalter, and while they’re off to a nice start, the rigors and the grind of facing their opponents in the AL East will no doubt have them coming back down to earth sometime soon.
Final season predictions:
Boston Red Sox- 93-69
While there is currently doom and gloom in Beantown over their horrendous start, this team is too good NOT to turn it around. Quality of regular lineup and solid starting pitching will eventually shine through.
New York Yankees- 91-71
The Bronx Bombers will take this division race down to the wire, but unless general manager Brian Cashman comes up with a miracle cure for lack of starting pitching depth no amount of hitting will be enough to offset that fact.
Toronto Blue Jays- 84-78
The Blue Jays are a very intriguing team under first-year manager John Farrell. While they suffered a stunning loss at the hands of the Seattle Mariners on Monday night during which they blew a seven-run lead, and center fielder Rajai Davis is on the DL with an ankle injury, the core group of players, combined with the development of starting pitching, will make life in Toronto at least tolerable for baseball fans. Hey, the Maple Leafs missed the playoffs again, they have to root for someone.
Baltimore Orioles- 81-81
The Orioles have not had a winning record since 1997. They’ll at least break the cycle of losing. Buck Showalter is just too good of a manager to allow for a losing attitude.
Tampa Bay Rays- 72-90
Forget about the loss of Manny Ramirez, this team lost a LOT in the offseason (Matt Garza, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Rafael Soriano, et al), While Joe Maddon does a great job in making do with few resources, he’s not a miracle worker.
2. American League Central- Final Standings
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This division could well furnish the most excitement among pennant races to watch in mid-to-late September. The Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox all have a legitimate chance. While the Central Division has-beens, the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals are currently sitting 1-2 in the standings, there probably isn’t a pundit alive who believes for one second that either team will be there in the end, or even in the middle.
Minnesota Twins- 92-70
The Twins’ season could very well come down to the health of both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and if either one of them go down for a significant period time, I will definitely reserve my right to alter this prediction.
Detroit Tigers- 90-72
This is a team that will clearly not lack for offense. Miguel Cabrera is already off to a typical Cabrerian (sic) start, and free agent signee Victor Martinez is already making his presence felt. Much like the Yankees, pitching depth beyond ace Justin Verlander will be a concern for much of the season. General manager Dave Dombrowski will be racking up cell phone minutes fast.
Chicago White Sox- 86-76
It’s always hard to count out an Ozzie Guillen-managed team and the White Sox always seem to hang around. However, while the starting rotation should be solid, the bullpen is not, already having registered four blown saves in five opportunities.
Cleveland Indians- 75-87
While it’s a great surprise to see the Indians off to an 8-2 start, including winning their last eight games, this team will come back to earth. Youth springs eternal, but youth can also spring a lot of leaks.
Kansas City Royals- 69-93
I’m sorry, but any team that features Luke Hochevar as its ace and Billy Butler in the cleanup hole is in desperate need of a lot of help.
3. American League West- Final Standings
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The Texas Rangers, hot off the heels of their fastest start in franchise history at 9-2, are absolutely for real. While receiving discouraging news on Tuesday regarding Josh Hamilton (shoulder strain) he was optimistic that the injury was not severe.
“The X-rays are fine—there’s no bone problem—but I haven’t heard back about the MRI yet. I usually bounce back pretty quickly from injuries, but the waiting for news isn’t any fun,” Hamilton told the AP’s Noah Trister. “I heard two pops, so my first thought was that it popped out and popped right back in again. That usually means you will just be sore.”
UPDATE: Hamilton was revealed to have a broken upper right arm and will miss at least 6-8 weeks.
The Oakland Athletics have already demonstrated the strength of their starting rotation, and ditto the Angels, at least their top three starters anyway. The Mariners of course have King Felix, but way too many questions after that.
Texas Rangers- 98-64
Yes, the Rangers missed out on Cliff Lee, but Alexi Ogando has already shown quality and the bottom of the rotation (Matt Harrison and Derek Holland) have been much better than advertised. Coupled with a beast of a lineup, the Rangers should have no problem repeating in the AL West.
Los Angeles Angels- 90-72
Yes, I realize that the Angels made no significant moves during the offseason, save the Vernon Wells acquisition. However, the top three in the starting rotation is absolutely nasty, and if and when Kendrys Morales returns, the Halos will score runs. It just won’t be enough to stop the Rangers Express.
Oakland Athletics- 86-76
The A’s clearly have the pitching to keep them in games. However, having some semblance of an offense would help along the way.
Seattle Mariners- 71-91
I am a HUGE fan of Seattle Mariners’ first-year manager Eric Wedge. However, this offense is even more challenged than Oakland’s, and while Wedge can effect changes in attitude, he can’t effect changes in overall talent.
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4. National League East- Final Standings
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For the past two months, everyone has had to endure article after article about the Philadelphia's vaunted starting pitching drawing comparisons to the 1971 Baltimore Orioles (last team in majors to feature four 20-game winners) and the Phillies have gotten off the blocks fast thus far (seven of their first nine games).
However, no one seems to know exactly when Chase Utley will return, if at all, and there’s the matter of a pretty good team further south in Atlanta. Even farther on down south, another team, the Florida Marlins, has a pesky way of hanging around as well.
Philadelphia Phillies- 101-61
The Fab Four, or whatever else you want to call them, is absolutely strong as advertised. While they may not equal the ’71 Orioles, they are capable of 70 wins collectively. Contreras has been fine thus far as the replacement for the injured Brad Lidge, and Wilson Valdez, while no Chase Utley, has temporarily answered the call at second.
Atlanta Braves- 92-70
Any other year, and the Atlanta Braves would be in contention for the NL East title. However, they will settle for the NL Wild Card.
Florida Marlins- 83-79
It’s always hard to completely count out the Marlins, no matter what their payroll is. A great nucleus of young players and a staff led by Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez will keep the Marlins viable and exciting as they enter a new stadium next season.
New York Mets- 75-87
It’s just a bit too much to ask both Mike Pelfrey and R.A. Dickey to repeat their performances of last season, and with little or no money to spend, Citi Field could be looking like a morgue come September.
Washington Nationals- 68-94
Welcome to the nation’s capital, Jayson Werth, where the biggest news of the year will probably come with Stephen Strasburg’s first start after Tommy John surgery. With Ryan Zimmerman on the DL and Adam LaRoche playing with a torn labrum in his left shoulder, the Nationals will be facing a deficit much like its home city.
5. National League Central- Final Standings
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While the Cincinnati Reds were certainly one of the surprises in Major League Baseball in 2010, they won’t be much of a surprise this year. With their core group basically returning in 2011, the Reds have been the popular choice in the NL Central. The Cardinals hopes took a huge hit with Adam Wainwright going down in the spring, requiring Tommy John surgery, and the Albert Pujols negotiations were and remains the big elephant in the room.
The Brewers, under first-year manager Ron Roenicke, have plenty of firepower in the lineup, and Yovani Gallardo and Chris Narveson have been impressive thus far. In Houston, manager Brad Mills may be begging general manager Ed Wade for run producers before he pulls all his hair out, and Cubs manager Mike Quade may be asking for police protection after fans have questioned his managing of pitchers.
At this point in time, any news out of Pittsburgh would be considered good, no matter what it is.
Cincinnati Reds- 93-69
This is a solid team, as evidenced last year. Reigning MVP Joey Votto has become the clear leader on a team with multiple run producers (Scott Rolen, Brandon Phillips, Jonny Gomes), a solid yet unspectacular pitching staff, and the guidance of Dusty Baker, who became the 11th manager in history to win over 250 games with three different teams.
St. Louis Cardinals- 90-72
This Cardinals team will produce runs, but questions in pitching depth and bullpen issues (Ryan Franklin, 3 blown saves, 9.82 ERA), relegate this year’s Cards’ team to second place once again.
Milwaukee Brewers- 86-76
No one doubts the offensive firepower of this Brewers team. The questions stem from pitching and whether or not Zack Greinke, when he returns, and Shawn Marcum can be the difference makers.
Chicago Cubs- 78-84
One hundred three years and counting. Enough said.
Houston Astros- 75-87
The Astros have the exact opposite problem than Milwaukee. Decent pitching, but the offense may be like Houston’s space program: dead.
Pittsburgh Pirates- 65-97
The Pirates actually have some good young talent (Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen) but a pitching staff featuring Kevin Correia and Charlie Morton at the top?
6. National League West- Final Standings
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The San Diego Padres, with the second lowest payroll in baseball last season, took everyone by surprise and extended the NL West Division race right to the final weekend. Unfortunately, their hopes fled along with Adrian Gonzalez. The Giants, on the other hand, will have the opportunity to defend their first World Series championship in 56 years and with the same nucleus of players, including a slimmer version of Kung Fu Panda.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3-4 hitters but not much else. Clayton Kershaw has turned into one of the nastiest left-handers in the league, but run support will be an issue all season. The McCourt divorce proceedings further complicate matters regarding the adding of payroll later in the season.
The Arizona Diamondbacks feature a fiery manager in Kirk Gibson but a roster that will be challenged to hit and/or pitch effectively. The Rockies have the firepower with Carlos Gonzales and Troy Tulowitzki leading the way, but can Ubaldo Jimenez and the rest of the staff get it done? Both Jimenez and Aaron Cook are currently on the DL and due to return soon, and the Rockies are off to a nice 7-2 start, but the rarified air always seems to be the downfall for the Rockies.
San Francisco Giants- 95-67
A great pitching staff, combined with a general lack of overall talent in the rest of the West, leads the Giants back to the playoffs once again.
Colorado Rockies- 83-79
This division really is a case of the rest of the West after the Giants. The Rockies get the nod for the Best of the Rest of the West. Wow, I’m catchphrase kinda guy, ain’t I?
Los Angeles Dodgers- 80-82
First year manager Don Mattingly may one day rue the day he decided to take this job. While Matt Kemp seems to be focused, and Clayton Kershaw continues his rapid progression to the top of the heap among left-handed pitchers, the rest of the team is seriously nothing to write home about. I’m STILL waiting for a complete breakout from Andre Ethier.
San Diego Padres- 76-86
What’s not to love about Padres manager Bud Black? What he did with this group last year was nothing short of spectacular. However, A-Gone is long gone and so are the Padres’ hopes of going anywhere.
Arizona Diamondbacks- 65-97
Center fielder Chris Young has been thrilled thus far by the spirit that manager Kirk Gibson brings to the clubhouse every day. But no amount of spirit is going to help this team, at least not for this season.
7. American League Playoffs
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In early October, the Texas Rangers, by virtue of the best record in the American League, will play the Wild-Card entries, the New York Yankees, and the Minnesota Twins will play the Boston Red Sox.
The Rangers will move on, as the Yankees prove to be no match for the vaunted Texas firepower. Ditto for the Boston Red Sox, as their lineup will overpower a good but not spectacular Twins’ pitching staff.
In the American League Championship Series, it could very well come down to pitching. I would be hard-pressed to pick against the Red Sox in a seven game series, with John Lester, Clay Buchholz and a recharged Josh Beckett. Red Sox in six.
8. National League Playoffs
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The Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the Cincinnati Reds, and the San Francisco Giants will be up against the Atlanta Braves in the two National League Division Series matchups.
The Giants and the Braves may be the matchup to watch, as two excellent pitching staffs face off against one another. I’m just not confident enough to predict an upset here. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are just too good at the top of that Giants rotation. Giants in four.
Philadelphia will not accept anything less than a World Series championship and they will not be overlooking any opponent that crosses their path. Phillies in four as well.
In the National League Championship Series, I am of the belief that Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt are hungry and are out to prove something. The Giants just don’t have enough offense to match up. Phillies will win in six games to face the Boston Red Sox in the 2011 World Series.
9. 2011 World Series
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The Philadelphia Phillies will be hosting the Boston Red Sox, by virtue of the National League winning the All-Star game. The biggest question of this series will be whether or not the Phillies pitching can hold off the Sox offensive onslaught.
Inevitably, all World Series matchups come down to pitching and defense and this Series should be no different. Phillies win in a thrilling seven-game matchup.
10. American League Player Award Winners
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Most Valuable Player- Adrian Gonzalez, Boston Red Sox
A-Gone will sign a lucrative multi-year contract sometime by the end of April, and Red Sox Nation will be rewarded for his efforts. A .300/40 HR/125 RBI season should be more than enough to give Gonzalez the nod over Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers.
Cy Young Award- Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
2011 will be the year that Weaver reigns supreme. Already off to a 3-0 start, Weaver has breezed through all three of his starts, and will finish with a record of 21-6 with an ERA just south of 3.00. The only way Weaver loses this award is if fellow Angels’ starter Dan Haren also has a terrific year and votes cancel each other out. If this happens, look for John Lester to capture the award in a close race.
Rookie of the Year- J.P. Arencibia, Catcher, Toronto Blue Jays
Arencibia will absolutely develop into one of the best hitting catchers since…well, Joe Mauer. Arencibia is already off to a hot start for the Jays, hitting .375 with two homers and five runs batted in. Arencibia will easily outdistance Jeremy Hellickson of Tampa Bay.
11. National League Player Award Winners
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Most Valuable Player- Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies
While Albert Pujols has become the popular choice to win just about every year, Howard was in fact the MVP in 2006, and with the extended absence of second baseman Chase Utley from the lineup, look for Howard to produce .305/46 HR/130 RBI in 2011.
Howard will get the nod over reigning MVP Joey Votto, who continues to carry the offensive torch in Cincinnati.
Cy Young Award- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
This 23-year-old is a star just waiting to break out, and break out he will. Look for a record of 19-10, 2.45 ERA and 235 strikeouts, giving Kershaw the Cy Young award over runner-up Roy Halladay.
Rookie of the Year- Freddie Freeman, First Baseman, Atlanta Braves
The Braves continue the tradition of a sweet-swinging left handed hitter. In Freeman’s September call-up last season, his first home run was against none other than Cy Young award winner Roy Halladay. The kid simply has no fear, and he will have no peers when it comes to this award.
12. American League All-Star Starting Lineup
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C- Carlos Santana
1B- Miguel Cabrera
2B- Robinson Cano
SS- Derek Jeter (no way fans don’t vote him in, regardless of what he’s doing)
3B- Alex Rodriguez
LF- Carl Crawford
CF- Josh Hamilton
RF- Ichiro Suzuki
SP- Jered Weaver
13. National League All-Star Team
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C- Buster Posey
1B- Albert Pujols
2B- Brandon Phillips
SS- Troy Tulowitzki
3B- Chipper Jones
LF- Matt Holliday
CF- Carlos Gonzalez
RF- Jason Heyward
SP- Tim Lincecum
14. American League Comeback Player of the Year
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This award will go to Josh Beckett. Felled by back issues for much of last season, Beckett stumbled to a 6-6 finish with a 5.78 ERA. Beckett is out to prove all his detractors wrong this season.
Honorable Mention: Brandon Webb, Texas Rangers
Webb, felled with a bad wing since Opening Day 2009, should provide a boost for the Texas Rangers this season.
Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians: Another player who missed significant portions of the past two seasons. At just 28 years of age, Sizemore when healthy is a perennial All-Star candidate.
15.National League Comeback Player of the Year
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Carlos Beltran, RF, New York Mets
Beltran has appeared in just 149 games in the past two seasons, and is finally completely healthy for the first time since 2008.
Honorable Mention: Nate McClouth, CF, Atlanta Braves
McClouth suffered through the worst season of his young career, hitting just .190 in 85 games. McClouth is getting a second chance under new manager Fredi Gonzalez.
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