
Fantasy Football 2011: Top Ten Running Backs
As we all know, fantasy football now is in question that the players and owners have not come to terms on a new CBA. Assuming something gets done, which it should, I will take a look at the top ten running backs going forward.
The top ten scoring running backs in a standard ESPN league go as follows:
- Arian Foster-313
- Adrian Peterson-232
- Jamaal Charles-223
- Peyton Hillis-218
- Chris Johnson-216
- Darren McFadden-208
- LeSean McCoy-206
- Michael Turner-205
- Rashard Mendenhall-203
- Ray Rice-200
Past #1, there isn't a huge drop off.
#10-Peyton Hillis
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Peyton Hillis came virtually out of nowhere last year to rush for 1,177 yards and 11 TDs. Hillis added 61 receptions for 477 yards and two more TDs. Hillis finished fourth last season with 218 points in a standard scoring ESPN league.
Hillis fumbled the ball eight times last season, but only lost five of them. Cleveland finished the season 5-11 and the fact is, they don't have a stud at quarterback yet. Colt McCoy isn't going to scare many defensive coordinators, meaning the Browns will see nine in the box often.
Hillis is a very tough runner, which could get himself hurt during the season as he plays in the AFC North. That means he faces nasty defenses like Pittsburgh and Baltimore two times each. Hillis was banged up a bit last year, but did not miss any games.
#9-Rashard Mendenhall
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Rashard Mendenhall finished ninth last season in fantasy points. Mendenhall finished with 1,273 yards and 13 TDs. He is not going to get many receptions out of the backfield, which does hurt his fantasy value a bit.
The big thing going for Mendenhall is the fact that Pittsburgh's offense has a deep threat receiver in Mike Wallace, which forces teams to not stack the box. Pittsburgh is a team that will try to get the running game going early and often.
Mendenhall rushed for 1,108 yards with 7 TDs in 2009, meaning that Mendenhall should see another bump in his numbers as he is only 23 years old.
#8-Michael Turner
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Like Peyton Hillis, Michael Turner is a very hard and tough runner. Turner bounced back from an injury-plagued 2009 season with 1,371 yards and 12 TDs in 2010.
Turner is only 29, so he still has juice left for another great season. The fact that Turner was never the lead man until 2008 with the Falcons, helps as well.
Turner plays on a very good offensive team, the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons have one of the best wide receivers in the game, Roddy White. Quarterback Matt Ryan has continually gotten better and this will open up defenses for Turner.
#7-Darren McFadden
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McFadden is by far the highest risk-reward running back on this list. McFadden missed three games last season and was still able to rush for 1,157 yards and 7 TDs. He also had 47 receptions with 507 receiving yards and three TDs.
The scare for McFadden is the fact that he has never made it a full season in his three NFL seasons. He has made it 13 games twice, which makes him very fantasy relevant. McFadden will be one of those guys who can get 100+ rushing and receiving yards a game.
The Raiders play in the AFC West, which doesn't necessarily feature the toughest defenses. Oakland is an improving team and the play and health of Darren McFadden will dictate how they do.
#6-Lesean McCoy
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"Shady" McCoy was very shady last season as he shocked most people with 1,080 yards and seven TDs. Shady caught 78 balls for 592 yards and two more TDs.
The thing that gets McCoy so high up on this list is the fact that he plays with the most exciting quarterbacks in the league, Michael Vick. Vick played MVP football last year and his play and health will dictate how well Shady does.
Sky's the limit for McCoy—who is only 22 years old and is ultra-talented. McCoy could put himself in the elite category with a big season.
#5-Ray Rice
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Ray Rice finished last season with 1,220 yards and only five TDs, which hurt his stats a bit. He had 63 receptions with 556 yards and one TD. Rice will need to increase his TD total, without a doubt.
Rice, 24, does have to face the Pittsburgh Steelers twice a year. This has been the achilles heel for Rice, as he only rushed for 52 yards and no TDs in two games against the Steelers last year. He only added 27 receiving yards in those two games as well.
Rice had season-lows against the Steelers last year. He only had a total of 17 rushes in those two games. Rice plays on a solid Ravens offense and is backed by a tough Ravens defense. Rice degressed a bit last season, but this season will be better for Rice if he can find the end zone more often.
#4-Chris Johnson
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Chris Johnson saw a big drop in his numbers last season, which ranks him at four. He had an outstanding season in 2009 with 2,006 rushing yards and 14 TDs. He also had 50 receptions for 503 yards and two TDs.
Johnson last year had 1,364 rushing yards and 11 TDs. He had 44 receptions, 245 yards, and a TD.
The only thing that hurts Johnson is the quarterback position on the Titans. Kerry Collins could be the starter next year and that means teams will stack the box constantly because Chris Johnson deserves extra attention.
#3-Arian Foster
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Arian Foster was, without a doubt, the number one fantasy sleeper last season. He rushed for 1,616 yards and 16 TDs. He also had 66 receptions for 604 yards and two TDs.
Foster plays on a Texans team that features a good quarterback in Matt Shaub—and a great wide receiver in Andre Johnson. It will be impossible for teams to stack the box and this will create chances for Foster.
The fact that Arian Foster has done absolutely nothing in his career, prior to last season scares me. Foster is 24, so he is prime to go off again as well. He showed that he was reliable and durable last season, so sky's the limit for this guy again.
#2-Adrian Peterson
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Adrian Peterson is the most consistent player on this list as he has rushed for more than 1,250+ yards in each of his first 4 seasons. He has also eclipsed ten TDs in each of his first four seasons.
Peterson won't do a ton receiving-wise, but did have 36 receptions for 341 yards and a TD last season.
Peterson has only missed three games in his four NFL seasons. The only question behind Peterson will be the Vikings offense. There are many questions behind the Vikings quarterback position after Brett Favre decided to retire, again.
Peterson is as reliable as they come and he has consistently stayed healthy. Look for Peterson to continue his roll, as he is too good not to get 1,250+ yards rushing and 10+ rushing TDs.
#1-Jamaal Charles
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Jamaal Charles finished 3rd last year in the standard scoring ESPN league. Many people may ask, "Why is Charles at #1?" I would respond, he has a rushing average of six yards per carry in his three NFL seasons. The guy is absolutely explosive.
Charles rushed for 1,467 yards and five TDs. He had 45 receptions with 468 yards and three TDs, which were all career-highs.
Charles also has going for him a good spell back in Thomas Jones. Jones did steal some TDs from Charles last year, but Jones is 32 and only had a 3.7 yard per carry average last season.
The Chiefs' offense is starting to turn out very well around Charles. Quarterback Matt Cassell had a great year last year as he made the Pro Bowl team. Wide Receiver Dwayne Bowe also made the Pro Bowl team after leading all receivers with 15 TDs.
Like McFadden, Charles has an advantage playing in the AFC West. There isn't a defense that will make you say wow. All-in-all Charles is the most exciting running back in the NFL and will have a huge year in 2011.
Honorable Mentions
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- MJD-Missed the list due to his small size and knee injury from last season. Quarterback issues with David Gerard.
- Matt Forte-Forte will get plenty of rushing and receiving yards combined, but is on the small side. Also, red zone offense of the Bears is poor.
- Stephen Jackson-Call him Mr. Consistent, but Jackson is a bruiser and is coming up on 27. Played a full season last year for the first time since 2006.
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