2011 NFL Draft: Mock Draft Targets for the Green Bay Packers by the Experts
They Get Paid For This? Breaking Down the Experts' Mock Draft Targets for the Green Bay Packers
The 2011 NFL draft is now less than three weeks away, and a new bunch of mock drafts have hit the Internet. For better or worse, the experts have once again chimed in with their opinion.
As a reference point, here is how most of these same experts were picking for the Packers three weeks ago. Several picks have changed for Green Bay, who holds the 32nd selection in the NFL draft.
In addition, a handful of the experts have expanded their mock drafts into two- or three-round predictions. This gives us a more detailed look at what the Packers might be looking to do during the first two days of the draft.
The experts obviously don't have all the answers, but here's a look at who they are picking for the Packers three weeks before the NFL draft.
Mel Kiper Jr. (ESPN)
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Picks: Mississippi State OT Derek Sherrod (No. 32), Indiana WR Tandon Doss (No. 64) and Citadel CB Cortez Allen (No. 96)
By predicting the first three rounds, the much-maligned Mel Kiper Jr. gives us plenty to chew on.
And believe it or not, Kiper makes solid first- and third-round picks.
Sherrod would be a fantastic selection if he fell to pick 32, mainly because I think the Packers would jump on the opportunity to draft one of the top five tackles. Sherrod is universally ranked among that group.
Also, the talk in the Packers blogosphere that GM Ted Thompson doesn't draft black offensive lineman is absolutely ridiculous.
He's taken one in the past two drafts (Jamon Meredith in '09, Marshall Newhouse in '10), and there's absolutely no chance that Thompson has a racial bias when drafting football players. If there's no character concerns and you show you can play on tape, Thompson will consider you. Shame on those who have suggested that notion.
Sorry about the rant, but it needed to be said. Now back to the mock.
The third round is the earliest I've seen him go, but Cortez Allen is my favorite mid-round cornerback in this draft. I predicted him to the Packers in my last mock draft.
Also, Tandon Doss is probably a reach in the second round. The Packers could get better value at pick 64.
(Note: Fox Sports writer Peter Schrager also picked Sherrod at No. 32).
Todd McShay (ESPN), Charles Davis (NFL.com), National Football Post
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Picks: Ohio State DE Cameron Heyward (No. 32), Lehigh G William Rackley (No. 64) and Fresno State OLB Chris Carter (No. 96)
Todd McShay and I agree on two potential picks for the Packers: Heyward in the first round and Rackley (although I had him in the third round).
At pick 32, Heyward makes a lot of sense. Cullen Jenkins is almost certainly leaving Green Bay, and Johnny Jolly is no longer a part of the Packers future at defensive end.
Mike Neal and Ryan Pickett return as probable starters, but trusting an important position in the hands of two injury-prone players is a risk the Packers shouldn't take. Heyward would immediately solve that problem.
It would also be hard to argue with picking Rackley in the second or third round.
The Packers are likely losing starting left guard Daryn Colledge, and it would have likely been a position in need of an upgrade regardless of Colledge's roster status.
Chris Carter fills a perceived need in the third round, but would he be any kind of improvement over Frank Zombo or Erik Walden? If the Packers want to improve at outside linebacker, it's likely that a first- or second-rounder would need to be used.
(Note: NFL.com's Charles Davis and the National Football Post only picked Heyward at No. 32.)
Chad Reuter (CBS), Clark Judge (CBS)
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Picks: UCLA OLB Akeem Ayers (No. 32), Hampton DT Kendrick Ellis (No. 64)
Ever since Ayers had a slow showing at the combine, mock drafts from nearly every network have put him with the Packers at pick 32.
And despite the slow times, Ayers would give the Packers good value at that position. He's a gifted athlete for the position and has the skill set to be the immediate starter opposite Clay Matthews.
The other knock on Ayers has been his inconsistent motor. While that certainly is a concern, Packers' linebacker coach Kevin Greene has shown a propensity to get the most of his players.
If Greene and the coaching staff pushed Ayers to the height of his potential, the Packers would be getting an elite talent at a position they likely need to upgrade.
In the second round, Ellis is an interesting choice. His stock is on the rise, but he's had some major issues (kicked out of South Carolina, failed drug tests) that would make him an iffy selection for the character-conscious Packers.
(Note: CBS writer Clark Judge only picked Ayers at No. 32.)
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Rob Rang (CBS), Brian Baldinger (NFL.com)
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Picks: UNC DT Marvin Austin (No. 32), Virginia CB Ras-I Dowling (No. 64)
Taking Derrek Sherrod, Cameron Heyward or Akeem Ayers with the Packers first pick will likely make sense to the majority of fans if one of those situations happened on draft day.
What if Roger Goodell said the name Marvin Austin with the 32nd pick, however?
While there's no question that Austin has talent, taking him in the first round might raise a few eyebrows.
For starters, can he play the 5-technique in the 3-4 defense? Very few publications think Austin is anything more than a 4-3 defensive tackle.
But more importantly, does he fit in the locker room? Austin was at the center of UNC's suspensions last season and his passion for the game has been questioned by a number of scouts.
If those two questions check out for Thompson and his staff, Austin would be a great addition to the defensive line. However, something tells me at least one will have an answer that keeps him out of Green Bay as a first-round pick.
Dowling could be another risky pick in the second round. He was injured for much of his senior season and also pulled his hamstring while running the 40 this offseason.
Like Austin, the talent is there, but the medical history might turn him off from second round consideration.
(Note: NFL.com's Brian Baldinger only picked Austin at No. 32.)
Pete Prisco (CBS), Bucky Brooks (NFL.com)
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Roughly three weeks after most mock drafts had the Packers taking Brooks Reed, at least two of the experts still believe this is a possibility for Green Bay.
Reed's stock has steadily risen over the past weeks and months, and Washington Redskins defensive coordinator Jim Haslett thinks the Packers will be looking for a rusher early on.
"I talked to guys in Green Bay and they're still not happy with their defense yet," Haslett said. "They need another outside guy rushing."
With a nonstop motor and an explosive first step, Reed could be the choice to complement Clay Matthews in the Packers attacking defense.
Steve Wyche (NFL.com)
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Pick: Miami CB Brandon Harris (No. 32)
Unless Brandon Harris was far-and-away the best player on the Packers board, there's probably little chance he'd be the selection at No. 32.
Thompson has always looked towards the future, but why draft a player that likely wouldn't see the field (barring injury) in a year where the Packers are primed for another Super Bowl run?
Charles Woodson isn't retiring yet, and he likely has two or three good years left in him. With Tramon Williams and Sam Shields next on the depth chart, that leaves Harris as potentially the dime cornerback.
The Packers will likely draft a cornerback sometime in this draft, but it's unlikely it would be this high.
While Harris is a solid talent and should develop into an NFL starter, the Packers would be wise to go in a different direction at pick 32.
Pat Kirwan (NFL.com)
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Pick: Alabama RB Mark Ingram
There might not be another first-round pick the Packers could realistically make that would stir up more controversy than Mark Ingram.
And overall, I think fans would be spilt on the issue.
Some would argue that Thompson was sticking to his guns—taking the best player available. Those people could also argue that both Ryan Grant and James Starks have injury histories and Grant is only under contract through 2011.
However, there's a pretty good argument for the other side too. With Grant, a proven NFL runner, and Starks, who took the playoffs by storm, both currently on the roster, why take another running back?
Also, what makes you think that Thompson would use a first-round pick on a back when he wouldn't trade a third rounder last season for Marshawn Lynch? If Thompson truly wants another back, this draft has a plethora of good runners available in the middle-to-late rounds.
Thompson would have to love Ingram and feel confident that he's clearly the best player on board. Plus, it's still a probability that Ingram won't even be available at pick 32 anyway.
Nolan Nawrocki (Pro Football Weekly)
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Pick: Georgia OLB Justin Houston
Another hot pick early on in the mock draft circuit, Justin Houston going to the Packers has cooled off some in the recent weeks.
Most experts either feel that Houston will go 7-12 picks before Green Bay, or several picks after the Packers at No. 32. There's clearly no consensus on Houston.
I tend to agree more with the group that Houston will go before the Packers pick. Naturally then, if Houston falls to pick 32, I think he'd be a solid addition.
He has experience playing in a 3-4 defense (Georgia switched to it before last season), and his production rose after the switch.
Houston needs to expand his pass-rushing repertoire, but he would immediately project as the starting linebacker opposite Clay Matthews next season if drafted.
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