NFL Draft 2011: Power Ranking This Year's Top 10 Prospects
At this time of the year, mock drafts are a dime a dozen.
Every day a new view comes out about what Carolina is going to do with the first pick. A new slant on Cam Newton's future suitor is found. A fresh opinion is given on the effect of Nick Fairley's "boom or bust" potential.
These guys have got to wake up to the truth.
Even Carolina doesn't know what it is gonna do at No. 1, and teams are as torn as ever between being attracted by Newton's and Fairley's high ceilings and being scared away by their low floors.
The fact is that mock drafts have their limitations.
Players like Newton rise up due to hype and buzz around the league. Guys who can fit all types of systems have their stock inflated, while players such as Akeem Ayers fall due to their "tweener" attributes.
Five years down the line, mock drafts will be irrelevant. So here is an alternative: A definitive list of best 10 players to come out of this year's 2011 NFL draft.
Honourable Mentions
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These guys are right on the doorstep of the Top 10.
Julio Jones, Alabama, WR
Granted, Jones' absence from the list is a surprising one. But hear me out.
It is undoubted that he played in a great programme at Alabama and was a key part of their success under Nick Saban. He has prototypical size and speed for a wide receiver and showed it when he blew up at the combine.
But, for me, that's the problem.
Before his performance at Indianapolis, he was not considered one of the elite players of this year's class. That all changed with his 4.34 40, and understandably. But put the tape on, and he is not the burner that his time suggests. He plays at a solid 4.5 with very good, but not elite, quickness and speed.
Now I'm not saying that Jones is the second coming of classic "workout warrior" Mike Mamula. Just that his combine numbers need to be treated with a little caution.
Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin, OT
Carimi is rated by few this highly, but I see him as the best offensive tackle prospect in this class.
First off, he comes from a great school for offensive linemen. Just ask Joe Thomas of the Cleveland Browns. More than that though, he has played against top competition regularly and really excelled against it in his senior year, dominating players such as Iowa's Adrian Clayborn all game long.
In addition, his character is unquestionable. He has all the toughness and determination needed to thrive in the trenches of the NFL and a blue-collar work ethic to boot.
His "plug-in-and-play" nature will really help him on draft day and will enable him to start at right tackle from Week 1 (if there is one, that is).
Danny Watkins, Baylor, OG
Watkins is placed in the late 30s on most people's Big Boards, and I simply don't see why.
Although at 26 he is much older than other prospects, he has the most "Pro-Bowl potential" of any lineman in this draft. His elite toughness and mean streak, along with his hard-working character, will make him one of the safest and most valuable picks on draft day.
At the position he will be drafted, he is the nearest thing teams will ever get to a slam dunk.
10. J.J. Watt, Wisconsin, DE
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Watt is one of the most underrated players in this draft. He really should not get past Houston at 11.
Standing at 6'5" and 290 pounds, he is best suited as a 5-technique defensive end (3-4 DE) due to his rare combination of size and explosiveness.
His career at Wisconsin was impressive, where he managed to make play after play despite drawing double teams from some of the nation's top schools. His performance at the combine was even more so, punching above his weight by posting leading times in the company of leaner and speedier ends.
However, his intangibles are what secured his place in the Top 10. He's as hard a worker as you will find in this draft and won awards for his academic abilities in college. He shows great football knowledge and would have killed in the interviews and on the whiteboard at the combine.
If that wasn't enough, he would automatically become an ambassador for his franchise. He has set up his own "Justin J Watt Foundation," which focuses on funding athletic programmes in his hometown area.
He seems like just the type of player who would fall into the Patriots' laps, who are conveniently placed at 17.
I hope for the rest of the league's sake that he doesn't.
9. Da'Quan Bowers, Clemson, DE
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Bowers' draft stock may be falling faster than a lead balloon, but I'm sticking with my man. For now.
Sure, he's got some injury troubles. And yes, he is a one-year wonder.
But couldn't the same be said about Adrian Peterson in 2007? And how did that one turn out? With Al Davis facepalming his way to an eight-year (and counting) playoff drought, that's how. (Courtesy in no small part to the contribution of a certain "JaBustus" Russell.)
Now I'm not saying that Bowers should be a top-five pick. There's no doubt that he is a risk due to minimal production in his first two years and the knee that has troubled him so much throughout this process.
However, this is a very good player who could be no less than dominant against both the run and pass in the NFL. Ignoring Pro Day measurables, which were well below par due to injury, Bowers could be great at the 7-technique position (4-3 DE) and shows every bit of the explosion and drive that is needed at the next level.
In terms of intangibles, Bowers has matured off the field as well as on it in the past year. His performances suggest a new approach to preparation, and there's no doubt that his consistency last year shows that he has become a student of the game.
Look for him to be a bargain for 4-3 teams picking 10-20 on draft day.
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8. Nick Fairley, Auburn, DT
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Fairley, with former teammate Cam Newton, has the most "boom or bust" potential of any player in the draft.
At times in his Auburn career he was quite simply unplayable.
He single-handedly took over the BCS National Championship game, penetrating the Oregon blocking like a hot knife through butter. But for me his most impressive piece of tape is the LSU game. He terrorized the linemen all day, beating double and even triple teams one play with his size and strength, and the next with his quickness and superb footwork.
His excellent pro day definitely cemented his place as the premier D-line prospect in terms of talent and potential.
On the other hand, he has as many negatives as positives against his name.
His "puppy fat" needs to be lost and muscle added for domination in the NFL. His work ethic has been put to question and there are reports that his interview performances at the combine were nothing short of dire. Finally, it is clear on tape that he takes plays off and does not always give 100 percent effort.
The team that snags Fairley will have a supreme talent on their hands. But they must take him with the knowledge that a spectacular bust is just as likely as a rise to stardom.
7. Prince Amukamara, Nebraska, CB
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Amukamara is a player who has probably been treated unfairly in this whole process. Of course comparisons to fellow cornerbacks are inevitable, but Prince is much more than a poor man's Patrick Peterson. He is an elite prospect in his own right.
Amukamara's size (6'0", 206 pounds) and top-end 4.3 speed make him a prototypical potential shut-down corner and give him all the tools to dominate at the next level. This rare athleticism is put to best use in press man coverage, which suits his physical playing style and mentality to a tee. Add in that he had a stellar college career as a Husker, and you have yourself a pretty impressive prospect.
But then again, these qualities are shared among maybe as many as the top five cornerbacks in this year's draft. In fact, many would say that Colorado's Jimmy Smith is better physically equipped for the NFL. So what separates Prince from the pack?
Well I'm glad you asked.
Prince has exactly the kind of intangibles that GMs and coaches alike long for. A highly religious man, Amukamara has been a model student on campus and a vocal and important leader for the defense on the field. He aced the Wonderlic test at the combine and would have really impressed in interviews with teams.
Displaying similar skills to the likes of Darrelle Revis and Nnamdi Asomugha coming out of college, don't be surprised if Prince turns out in the end to be the gem of this cornerback class.
6. Robert Quinn, North Carolina, DE/OLB
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In many ways Quinn is the "joker in the pack" of the 2011 draft class.
A gifted athlete, he seemed to be destined to become a top-three pick after breaking out with a spectacular 11-sack season in 2009. His plans were derailed, however, when he was banned for the whole of last year for lying to the NCAA about receiving travel accommodation and jewellery.
Yet despite not suiting up in over a year, Quinn is a consensus top-10 prospect. The explanation is simple.
Teams are quite literally salivating over his upside.
Quinn was a heavyweight wrestling champion in high school and displays a freakish athleticism on the field that could enable him to make an instant impact at the next level. His rare mix of explosiveness and flexibility give him an immediate advantage over offensive linemen, and his hand speed and technique in shedding blocks is second to none in this deep and talented class of pass rushers.
Quinn's versatility will also appeal to teams: His best position could be as a pass rushing outside linebacker in a 3-4 even though he played as a 4-3 defensive end in college.
Although Quinn will be a risk for whichever team takes him, there's little doubt that a team in the top 10 will find his potential for greatness too much to pass up.
5. Blaine Gabbert, Missouri, QB
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At last a quarterback.
This is a deep draft for signal-callers and, for me, Gabbert is clearly the standout of the group. Sure, Cam Newton's physical tools are more enticing and Andy Dalton's winning record is more reassuring, but Gabbert is the most complete quarterback in this draft and deserves to be drafted in the top five.
First of all, let's get one thing straight.
There is no Matt Ryan or Sam Bradford in this draft. All quarterbacks come with their own questions and flaws, meaning no slam dunk, consensus pick this year. Bummer.
But hey, Gabbert is pretty close.
Coming out of a spread offense and having underwhelming stats hold him back, his pinpoint accuracy on short to intermediate throws should still serve him really well in the NFL. Gabbert's athleticism is severely underrated as well: He posted a faster 40 time than Alabama running back Mark Ingram at the combine.
However, Gabbert's character and ability to learn is what really vaulted him up this list. He has taken to receiving snaps under center like a duck to water and his intelligence is unquestioned, owning the Wonderlic with an elite 43.
It has already been reported that he highly impressed in interviews with teams and was second to none drawing up plays on the whiteboard.
With the demand of quarterbacks heavily outweighing the supply this year, I'd be shocked if Gabbert fell out of the top five this April.
4. A.J. Green, Georgia, WR
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Here is where things start getting serious in terms of potential. Very little separates these elite top four from each other.
Despite massive hype coming out of college, A.J. Green has slipped under the radar during the pre-draft process. This is probably thanks to Julio Jones' stock's astronomical rise since the combine, where his 40 time was 0.12 seconds superior to Green's.
In fact, a certain gel-happy draft analyst would have you believe that there is little to nothing separating the top two wide receivers.
Don't be fooled.
Green is the best wide receiver prospect since Calvin Johnson. Now that doesn't mean he is Calvin Johnson. But he's not too far off either.
A.J.'s production in college speaks for itself, posting over 50 receptions, 800 yards and six TDs in all his years as a Bulldog. But what is most exciting to scouts is how well his elite skills will translate to the NFL. Green will contribute from day one, and don't be surprised if he produces a standout, Randy Moss like rookie campaign (fantasy footballers take note...).
You see, the guy just flat-out separates.
And not only using his size or speed either.
His savvy route running and quick release allow him to get the upper hand time after time, something that is music to an offensive coordinator's ears. On top of that, he won't drop a thing. His hands are his best attribute, making him a reliable "3rd-and-long" target and giving him an uncanny ability to get on the highlight reel.
Put it this way, the lack of weaknesses in this guy's game is going to make him a very popular fella on draft day.
3. Marcell Dareus, Alabama, DT
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Speaking of guys in high demand, Marcell Dareus is no slouch in that department either.
Measuring an imposing 6'3" and 319 pounds, Dareus is the jewel in the crown of this talented class of defensive linemen. More importantly though, his ability to play at both the 5-technique (3-4 DE) and 3-technique (4-3 DT) positions will make him the most sought-after guy in the draft. Period.
Don't let the stats sway you. Dareus was nothing less than a beast in college. Demanding double teams almost every play, he still managed to anchor the defense and produce game-changing plays for the Crimson Tide.
He played in a set-up in Alabama that is renowned for producing pro-ready athletes, which has definitely contributed to his rise up draft boards all over the country.
Another massive factor was his performance at the combine. OK, his 40 time wasn't so hot, but his time at 10 yards was eye-opening, blowing fellow tackle Nick Fairley completely out of the water. This showed his elite explosion and initial quickness, which will give him a massive advantage at the next level.
Ndamukong Suh has become the staple of what can happen if you pick the right guy at the defensive tackle position. He was simply dominant last year, arguably outperforming every other tackle in the league. And what was the reason?
Power.
Suh played with a relentless, unwavering strength that instantly made him a factor in the NFL. On tape, Dareus displays that same sort of playing style and mean streak that has made GMs and coaches sit up and take notice this offseason.
Teams in the top five generally cannot afford to miss. And Dareus almost eliminates the possibility of doing that, having possibly the highest ceiling of any player in the draft.
I'd be truly amazed if he made it out of the top three.
2. Patrick Peterson, LSU, CB
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Freak of nature.
That's the best way to describe Patrick Peterson, who many rate as the top player in the draft. It's not difficult to see why. The guy has the size of a safety, the coverage skills of a shut-down corner, 4.3 speed and the tenacity in the tackle of a linebacker.
Oh, and he was named SEC Special Teams MVP for returning punts and kickoffs.
Not too bad an investment, I'd say.
Peterson has a great chance to be special in the NFL. He excels in both man and zone coverage, but is most comfortable when he gets a chance to get up in the receiver's grill and use his superior physicality. Flying sideline to sideline, he uses his top-end speed to cover the whole field and is always sniffing around for his next opportunity to make a game-changing play.
In this respect, he could be elite in the sort of role that Charles Woodson fills with the Packers, being used as the slot corner in nickel packages and given the licence to roam and make plays, whether they be sacks, forced fumbles, tackles for a loss or interceptions.
But Peterson's value doesn't stop there.
His unusual combination of size and speed, as well as great instincts and ball skills, will make a switch to safety possible 10 or 12 years down the line. This would allow him to fully fulfill his playmaking potential and extend his career by five or six years, as Rod Woodson did with the Ravens and Raiders, whilst still playing at the highest level.
There's no question that Peterson is the most physically gifted of this year's prospects. However, the team that drafts him must make sure that his intangibles are just as impressive, rather than being solely won over by his God-given talents
1. Von Miller, Texas A&M, OLB
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So here it is. Von Miller of Texas A&M is my choice as the best player in the 2011 NFL draft.
The reason? Simple.
He's the most complete player in the draft. Miller has the whole package, ranging from a great attitude on and off the field to outstanding potential to dominate in the league for years to come. He is as clean a player as you find at this stage.
Let's start with production.
Miller opened eyes for the first time last year when he generated a superb pass-rushing season, leading the country with 17 sacks. However, he opted to return to play as a senior and did not disappoint, posting 11 sacks in his last nine games as an Aggie after playing through a nagging right ankle injury.
In doing so, he showed an innate ability to thrive under pressure, with many waiting to pass his junior season off as a fluke due to a slow start to the 2010 season. This was backed up in the Cotton Bowl, where he posted a season-high in tackles and a sack.
Miller's athletic abilities are off the charts. His 4.4 40 at the combine along with his unique ability to bend and dip while rushing the passer make him the most explosive player in the draft. His playing style is reminiscent of the late, great Derrick Thomas, who showed the same unrelenting tenacity in pursuit.
Many are quick to dismiss him as a pure sack artist. But Miller is far from a one-trick pony.
He shows good strength and hustle against the run, making him dangerous in stuffing plays behind the line of scrimmage. On top of that, he has showed glimpses of excellence in dropping into pass coverage and really stood out in this area at the Senior Bowl.
To top it all off, Miller has no character or off-field issues. He has been a student of the game during his career thus far and is often described as the first in and last out of the gym or film room.
All in all, he seems to be a Pro Vowler waiting to happen. With the first two picks pretty much locked in as Newton and Dareus, Buffalo will be perfectly placed to fill a burning need with Miller.
Knowing the Bills, I'd be amazed if he does make the top three.
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