NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Prediction: Florida Gators vs. Butler Bulldogs

On Thursday, Florida (29-7) picked up an ounce of revenge from last year’s first-round loss by beating BYU 83-74 in overtime.

The Gators did exactly what I thought they should do. They turned senior guard Jimmer Fredette into a volume shooter and dared his teammates to beat them.

They couldn't do it.

Kenny Boynton showed no signs of a sprained ankle against UCLA in the second round.

Boynton and the rest of the Gators hounded the All-American guard all night. He had five assists, but turned the ball over six times in the losing effort.

Fredette scored 32 points, but shot only 11-for-29 from the field and 3-for-15 from three-point range.

Must Read: 25 Greatest NCAA Tournament Players of All Time

Junior forward Noah Hartsock finished with nine points on 3-for-8 from the field and eight rebounds.

Senior guard Emory Blake was held to only nine points on 3-for-8 shooting.

Meanwhile, senior forward Alex Tyus had the best game of his career with 19 points and 17 rebounds.

His teammates weren’t too shabby, either.

Senior forward Chandler Parsons finished with 16 points on 6-for-15 shooting, nine rebounds and a game-high seven assists.

Erving Walker scored 16 points on 5-for-13 shooting and dished out six assists.

Boynton scored 17 points on 5-for-14 from the field and five assists.

With the win over BYU now in the rearview mirror, Donovan’s team shifts its focus to a familiar foe—Butler.

As most Gator fans know, the Orange and Blue have played a couple of thrilling games against the Bulldogs in the Big Dance in the past decade.

In 2000, Mike Miller, in a play known as “Home Run,” broke the Bulldogs’ hearts with a drive in buzzer-beater for a thrilling 69-68 overtime win in the first round. The game launched the baby Gators all the way to the title game.

In 2007, the Gators defeated Butler 65-57 in the Sweet 16 en route to its second consecutive championship.

Ironically, Donovan will have faced the Bulldogs’ third coach in his 15 years at the helm at Florida. He faced Barry Collier, who is now Butler’s current athletic director, in 2000. Donovan coached against Todd Lickliter in 2007. This year, Donovan will be pitted against Brad Stevens.

So, how will Florida fair in the matchup against last season’s runner-up to the national championship on Saturday?

Butler (26-9) heads into the Elite Eight matchup with a 61-54 win over No. 4 seed Wisconsin, despite almost blowing a 20-point lead.

Just like their predecessors, the 2010-11 Butler team can shoot the ball from downtown. As a team, they’re shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc.

Florida’s frontcourt will have its hands full with the senior forward Matt Howard. Howard’s averaging 16.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per game.

Junior guard Shelvin Mack is averaging 15.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game. Don’t be deceived by his 35 percent shooting from downtown. If left open, he’ll make teams pay.

Senior guard Shawn Vanzant (a Tampa native) is averaging only eight points per game, but is shooting 42 percent from three-point land.

Both Boynton and Walker would be advised on playing close to these guys and forcing them to take tough shots.

Sophomore center Andrew Smith, who left the Wisconsin game with a sprained ankle, provides a little more bulk inside (6’11”, 239 pounds). He averages 8.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game.

Howard, who shoots 43 percent from three point range, will force one of Florida’s big men out on the perimeter. His jump shot puts added pressure on the guards to stay with the guards, especially Mack.

Florida should try to attack Howard defensively. The senior forward has been plagued with foul trouble throughout his career.

Donovan might be wise to give Tyus a few looks early to attack Howard.

If Howard lands in foul trouble, Stevens will not have many alternatives on the bench. Stevens would probably be forced to play freshman forward Erik Fromm (6’9”, 220 pounds).

The good news for the Orange and Blue is the Bulldogs would be subbing in a senior with Final Four experience for an inexperienced freshman. Fromm, though, probably should be considered a sophomore with the number of games under his belt this year.

Against Wisconsin, Butler wielded a three-guard lineup. Chase Stigall, a 6'4" guard, will likely draw the assignment to guard Chandler Parsons.

Donovan should look to give a few touches to the White Mamba on the post to take advantage of the size difference.  

If the White Mamba’s successful, Stevens might counter with freshmen forward Khyle Marshall. The Davie, Fla. native (6’7”, 210 pounds) offers more size, but is only a freshman.

The one intriguing matchup is Smith versus Macklin. Macklin, who’s been known to fumble and butterfinger the ball on the post, can get a few easy baskets.

If Butler chooses to double, Macklin should kick it out to Boynton, Walker or the White Mamba for an open three.

I would love to see Walker and Boynton put the ball on the floor a little more. They should drive inside when they see their shot isn’t falling.

Both guys struggled with their shots in the second half against BYU, but found success in overtime when they drove inside.

Donovan and crew will have their hands full with this team. Butler is excellent at stretching the floor and grinding out games.

Another key is to attack and build an early lead. Against BYU, Florida blew a 10-point lead in the first half. Butler is a team that will thrive in a close game.

Butler controlled most of the game against Wisconsin, but won by two against Old Dominion in round two and by one against Pittsburgh in the third round.

Fans from both sides will be excited for this game.

For Gator fans, this game could get Donovan back to the Final Four for the fourth time in his career as coach, his first since 2007.

Bulldogs’ fans want to avoid becoming gator bait for the third time in the tournament and finally beat Florida.

Also, the game provides a chance for Cinderella to get back to the Final Four for the second year in a row.

As for a prediction, I pick Florida to advance to the Final Four, but not before receiving yet another scare from the Bulldogs. Previous games against Butler have been low-scoring, and this game probably will not be any different.

I predict a hard-earned 63-58 win for the Gators.