NCAA Brackets 2011: Predicting the Outcome of Every Game of the Sweet 16
The NCAA tournament field is down to 16, and fans across the country are waiting to find out who will keep busting brackets deeper into the tourney.
Which Cinderellas have gone as far as they’ll go? Which top teams are on their way out?
Read on for previews of every game and predictions for who’s moving on to the Elite Eight.
No. 2 San Diego State Vs. No. 3 UConn
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The good news for the Aztecs is that Jimmer Fredette, whose BYU Cougars are the only team to top SDSU this season, is far away in the Southeast regional.
The bad news is that UConn has the next best thing in star guard Kemba Walker.
San Diego State likely won’t have much better luck defending Walker, whose dazzling Big East tournament performance has carried over into the NCAAs, than they’ve had with Fredette. That limits their options to trying to contain the rest of the Huskies and hoping they can outdo Walker with a team effort.
Unfortunately for the Aztecs, UConn isn’t a great match-up for them in other ways.
In San Diego State’s win over Temple, they lived off the transition offense created by their hustling post players running the floor ahead of Temple’s bigs. UConn, though, won’t be such an easy target, as Alex Oriakhi and their big men are used to the full-court pace of the Big East.
San Diego State stalled in half-court offensive play against Temple. Expect them to do the same here, with Walker’s continued scoring punch giving UConn enough offense to come away the winner.
No. 2 Florida Vs. No. 3 BYU
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As with any BYU game, the central question of WWJD (What Will Jimmer [Fredette] Do?) looms large over Florida.
The Gators don’t seem to have great options for stopping the Cougar scoring machine. Erving Walker is a gamer, but at 5’8”, he gives up four inches to Fredette.
Kenny Boynton is the more obvious matchup, but he is coming off a sprained ankle against UCLA and didn’t practice until Wednesday. Counting on him to contain the nation’s leading scorer is a long shot at best.
After thrashing a Gonzaga team with height advantages across the board, BYU is also unlikely to be intimidated by the Gators’ formidable front line. Chandler Parsons and Vernon Macklin will make their share of plays, but aren’t likely to take over the game.
Somebody will have to, though, if Florida wants to win. If Walker can shut down Jackson Emery (16 points against Gonzaga) and put up another big offensive night of his own, the Gators will make a game of it.
In the end, though, Fredette will be too much for the Gators as he has been for so many others this season, and BYU will advance.
No. 1 Duke Vs. No. 5 Arizona
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Arizona’s Derrick Williams will likely put some big numbers on the scoreboard in this one, as Duke lacks the kind of physical interior defenders needed to throw the agile Williams off his game.
Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Williams himself doesn’t pack much punch on the defensive end (as Memphis demonstrated repeatedly in their loss). Duke’s long, lean big men shouldn’t have much trouble getting some good looks.
Arizona’s depth may be a problem for Duke, who played just eight men in their win over Michigan. The Wildcats may try to play up-tempo and use their surplus of guards to try to wear down Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith, or perhaps get them into foul trouble.
On the other hand, after J’Covan Brown torched Arizona for 21 in the second half in Texas’ loss, the Wildcat guards may be too busy worrying about keeping Smith and Irving from lighting up the scoreboard.
Tournament experience will likely tell the tale here. Duke’s players are battle-tested from last year’s championship run, and they’ll outlast the comparatively callow Wildcats in the end.
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No. 4 Wisconsin Vs. No. 8 Butler
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After putting on a shooting exhibition against Pitt, Butler will need another big shooting game against another stout defense in Wisconsin. The Badgers will likely be able to slow the game down and let precision point guard Jordan Taylor (zero turnovers in the win over Kansas State) orchestrate their offense.
The slow pace will make every possession crucial for Butler, but the Bulldogs have already shown that they can execute with the best.
Butler won’t have one of the advantages that helped them against Pitt. Panthers center Gary McGhee wasn’t very well equipped to chase three-point threat Matt Howard around the perimeter, but Wisconsin’s 6’10” Jon Leuer has a perimeter game of his own and should give Howard his toughest matchup of the tourney.
Wisconsin excels at low-scoring, close-fought games, but if this one comes down to a couple of possessions, Butler’s tournament experience will be a huge advantage. Unless the Bulldogs’ long-range shooting goes south, expect them to make a second straight trip to the Elite Eight.
No. 2 North Carolina Vs. No. 11 Marquette
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Marquette has had its share of late-game heroics, but their success in this tournament has relied on a stout defense. They forced 18 turnovers to beat Syracuse, and held Tu Holloway to five points in the win over Xavier.
Neither of those opponents brought firepower to match what North Carolina will throw at the Golden Eagles on Friday.
While Marquette scored 66 points as a team to beat the Orange, UNC got 45 from its top two scorers alone as they edged out Washington. While Harrison Barnes and Tyler Zeller may find the going tougher against defensive-minded Marquette, they’re still likely to put points on the board in bunches.
The Tar Heels aren’t hurting for defense either. John Henson had four blocks in the win over the Huskies, not to mention a crucial deflection on an inbounds pass in the final seconds.
The Golden Eagles’ defense will probably keep this game close, but North Carolina has too much individual talent for Marquette to handle. They’ll play up-tempo just enough to push the Golden Eagles out of their comfort zone, and put up too many points for Darius Johnson-Odom to match.
Expect North Carolina to come out on top here.
No. 1 Kansas Vs. No. 12 Richmond
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The factor that will decide this game is which team’s frontcourt can control the paint. Richmond has the size to bang with Kansas, but needed to use extensive double and triple-teams to contain Morehead State star Kenneth Faried.
If they leave that many men open against the Jayhawks, they’re going to lose.
Kansas’ athletic frontcourt will be the toughest test Richmond’s big men have faced all season. If the Morris twins get into a rhythm offensively, Richmond may not be able to answer.
On the other hand, if Richmond can keep the frontcourt battle at a stalemate, red-hot point guard Kevin Anderson may get another chance to be a hero. The 6’0” Anderson will be, as often, at a size disadvantage against 6’3” Tyshawn Taylor, but Anderson has proven himself to be a tough cover through the early rounds of this tournament.
The longer Richmond hangs around, the likelier it is that Kansas will tense up and beat themselves. The Jayhawks will need to start strong and put the game out of reach early to avoid letting the senior-laden Spiders get their confidence up.
In the end, though, Kansas’ combination of muscle and skill in the post will be more than Richmond can handle. Expect Spiders’ foul trouble to allow the Jayhawks to pull away late for the victory.
No. 1 Ohio State Vs. No. 4 Kentucky
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Will the real Kentucky Wildcats please stand up?
If the Kentucky team that needed a desperation finish to escape from Princeton shows up in Newark on Friday night, Ohio State won’t break a sweat in taking them down. If the version of the Wildcats that handily defeated a veteran West Virginia team takes the court, Ohio State is in for all it can handle.
The battle of freshman point guards Brandon Knight and Aaron Craft should be fun to watch after both played brilliantly in second-round victories. More important to the outcome, though, will be the battle on the blocks, with Kentucky’s Terrence Jones trying to contain Buckeye star Jared Sullinger.
The Wildcats have plenty of size to throw at Sullinger, but he’s been more consistent than most freshmen this season. He’ll get his points, and Jones will need a big game on offense to help offset that scoring.
The decisive question, though, is whether Knight and fellow freshman Doron Lamb can take on a bigger, more experienced Ohio State backcourt and come out ahead. If the Wildcats win the overall battle of perimeter scoring (either by shutting down Ohio State’s three-point barrage or by simply out-shooting the Buckeyes), Kentucky will advance.
More likely, though, the experience and muscle of Ohio State’s wing players will be too much for the young Wildcats, and the Buckeyes will claim the victory.
No. 10 Florida State Vs. No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth
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In a battle of possibly the two best defenses in the Sweet 16, where is the offense going to come from?
For Florida State, which nailed seven three-pointers before halftime in beating Notre Dame, the answer will probably have to be the perimeter. Bernard James is a warrior, but doesn’t have the ball skills to be a good post-up option against the swarming VCU defense.
For the Rams, their best offense may come from their defense. If they can force the Seminoles into a fast-paced game, they’ll likely create turnovers and transition offense opportunities.
Tempo will be the crucial question for the game. Every possession in the half court for either team will be to Florida State’s advantage, while VCU will try to force a frenetic game with lots of the transition three-pointers that helped them sink Purdue.
VCU’s defense has been able to force that pace against better offenses than Florida State’s. They’ll do it again here, and the Rams will make an improbable appearance in the Elite Eight.
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