Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant and the 10 Most Clutch Players in the NBA
It's the difference between great and good. Good players perform well. Great players perform well when it matters the most—when the game is on the line. It's called "clutch" and it's the difference between being a star and being a superstar. It's where you separate the men from the boys. These are the tough guys who get going when the going gets tough.
Thanks to 82games.com we can see how players perform in the clutch. I've developed a method of measuring player productivity and applied that method to the clutch stats at 82games to determine who the most clutch of the clutch are. Simply measuring a player's clutch scoring ignores their contributions to the other aspects of the game, as well as things like field-goal percentage.
Here is the thinking behind my measurement:
I compile all the different aspects of what the player contributes, including scoring, assists and rebounds, as well as negative impacts such as turnovers and missed field goals. Based on the NBA average of 1.05 points per possession I give things that determine a possession, such as getting a rebound, 1.05 points.
- Points are worth a point.
- Assists are worth two points.
- Unassisted field goals are worth half an assist, thereby crediting players for creating their own shots.
- Things that are worth a gained possession i.e. rebounds, steals and blocks are worth the standard value of a possession, 1.05 points.
- Things that cost a possession i.e. turnovers and missed field goals are deducted the value of a possession.
- Missed free throws are deducted the standard statistical value of .44.
What you end up with is a value that shows how many points a player contributes in 48 minutes of playing time. Bear in mind that these values are inflated due to the fact that we are using clutch stats per 48 minutes. Clutch stats generally are much higher than you normally see.
10. Monta Ellis: 62.5
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Monta Ellis is ready to step up to that next level of star.
His appearance on this list shows that. He scores 43 points per 48 minutes of clutch time, eighth best in the NBA. The Warriors backcourt is showing a lot of promise. They are starting to come together as a young team.
Last year it was Oklahoma City, this year it's Memphis. Next year, the Warriors?
9. Manu Ginobili: 63.3
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Manu Ginobili has really become the go-to guy for the Spurs when the game is on the line, and his appearance on this list shows that.
He's putting up 40.4 points to go with 8.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists per 48 minutes of overtime. His 92 percent from the charity stripe in the clutch is indicative of how dependable he is in the clutch.
8. Amar'e Stoudemire: 63.3
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As a scorer, STAT is impressive in the clutch. His 45.7 points per 48 minutes of clutch is the fourth best in the NBA. His scoring percentages are fantastic: .529 from the field, .500 from three and .820 from the stripe. It's good to see a big man drop the free throws. He also averages 4.4 blocks per 48 minutes of clutch, which is very impressive and fifth in the NBA.
Why he only appears in eighth place though is that his production is short elsewhere. His 10.6 rebounds are low for a big man, and his 2.2 assists are very low—in fact it's less than the 3.5 turnovers.
It's not really a strike against him—it's just why he drops. Its' just not his game to be the facilitator. When the game is on the line though, he stands tall and talented.
7. Eric Gordon: 64.2
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There are those who will probably look at this and come to the wrong conclusion that this is why you can't use stats to measure players. I actually feel that this is the great thing about using stats; it shows you what you don't expect to see.
Gordon scores 42.5 points, grabs 4.9 boards and distributes 6.1 assists per 48 minutes of clutch time. What's really impressive though is his shooting. His .543 field-goal percentage is the best in the top 10, and what makes that even more impressive is that he's a guard. His three-point percentage is .556 in the clutch.
If you are down and need a guy who can get you back in the game, this is the guy you want on your team. Gordon is a star in the making, whether he stays in LA or goes elsewhere.
6. Dirk Nowitzki: 68.6
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Dirk gets accused of being a choker. It's an argument that is based on Dallas' postseason failures. It's one of the arguments I find flawed in sports discussions.
Basing whether a team wins or loses on the basis of a single player is tenuous at best, particularly when that player's performance isn't the issue.
You might be surprised to learn that among players with at least 2,500 minutes played, Dirk is fourth in win shares per 48 minutes. I won't say that this is an ironclad argument or that he's one of the greatest postseason performers ever, but I will say it's enough to shut the door on the ridiculous notion that he's a choker.
His presence here is another argument that he steps up, not down, when the game is on the line. In clutch time, Dirk scores 44.4 points, grabs 11.6 boards and distributes 4.6 assists per 48 minutes. He does this shooting .509 from the field.
5. Russell Westbrook: 72.6
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Surprisingly, Kevin Durant didn't quite make the list. He's 11th at 62.0.
The Oklahoma tandem combines for 134.6—best for any teammates in the NBA. Durant scores about five more points than Westbrook's 41.2 and grabs about 1.9 more rebounds than Westbrook's 11.
Westbrook is the shot creator in the clutch though, dishing out 6.4 assists and scoring 87 percent of his field goals unassisted. That's what elevates him ahead of Durant and to fifth in the NBA rankings.
The two together though is what makes the Thunder such a promising team. The addition of Kendrick Perkins combined with Serge Ibaka in the paint give the Thunder a defensive attitude.
The Thunder are going to be contenders for a long time coming, and Westbrook is a major part of the reason why.
4. Steve Nash: 72.6
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Steve Nash hasn't lost nearly as much as some people might suggest. When the game is on the line he still can dominate. He still runs a team as well as anyone.
He averages 35.1 points and 11.9 assists while grabbing 5.5 boards, but what's really amazing is that none of his field goals are assisted. In other words, he generates just about the entire Suns offense either through scoring or passing when the game is on the line.
3. LeBron James: 76.5
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In last-shot situations, James has been, to put it nicely, less than stellar this season. Clutch isn't just what happens on the last shot of the game though. When you take into consideration his whole clutch-time performance, James is still quite a performer.
In clutch time, James scores 48.7 points, collects 12.1 rebounds and contributes 3.9 assists. The assist numbers are surprisingly low, and support the notion that the Heat have become a team that watches James when the game is on the line.
If you're wondering where is Wade, the answer is 31st.
Recently there's been a trend where Wade has become the go-to guy when the game is on the line. We'll see how much that changes things when there's more of a sample size to judge from.
2. Kobe Bryant: 82.4
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Kobe is still Kobe in the clutch.
In terms of raw scoring, he's the NBA's top scorer in the clutch, racking up 53.4 points per 48 minutes in clutch time. He also has a surprisingly high eight assists—more than double what he had last year. Considering that his points in the clutch are up too, that's even more remarkable.
It may be that the overall reduction in minutes leaves him having more energy when the game is on the line. An even-better-in-the-clutch Kobe has to bode well for the Lakers' postseason prospects, and put a smile on the faces of their fans.
1. Derrick Rose: 83.9
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If you're a Bulls fan, seeing Rose at the top of this list is on par with things like the sun rising and gravity working in terms of things that surprise you. Statistically, no other player in the NBA does more to put his team on their back when they need someone to step up.
He averages a near triple double in clutch time, scoring 43.2 points, 11.3 rebounds and 9.7 assists per game. If that's not enough, 87 percent of his field goals are unassisted.
When the game has been on the line, Rose also leads the NBA with most made shots to tie or win in last-shot situations, having made four field goals to win or tie and twice making the free throws which sent the game into overtime.
His success rate is also high in those situations, going four for seven from the field in games on the line. That .571 percentage is nearly double the league average in those situations.
Rose's clutch time performance is the reason he's the front-runner for the MVP.
