March Madness 2011: Why the Arizona Wildcats Can Beat Duke

The point of this article is not to say that Arizona will beat Duke, it isn't even meant to say they should be favored. What I would say is that we shouldn't count out the Wildcats quite yet, and that the reigning national champions, while good, are not unbeatable. 

When examining Arizona's chances in literally any game, you first have to look at talented big Derrick Williams. There is no question at this point that Derrick Williams is one of the most dominant power forwards in the game today. He has all the tools. He's big, athletic, and has a dangerous set of moves at his disposal. 

Duke is a fairly physical team underneath, but by my estimation has just a small chance to contain Williams. Thus far in the tournament, Williams has played well, especially down the stretch. In the Wildcats' second round match up against Texas, he shook off a bad first half and played extremely well at the end of the game including a three point play to give Arizona the lead with 10 seconds to go.

Williams has bailed his team out in two straight games now, and looks like a true star. The first thing that should concern Duke fans is their apparent lack of depth in the front court. The Blue Devils used just three forwards in their second game against Michigan in which they narrowly escaped. Meanwhile, Derrick Williams shot fifteen free throws in a game against Texas who arguably has equally talented forwards. 

If the Wildcats can get all three of Texas' starting forwards in serious foul trouble, they can do the same to Duke. If Derrick Williams can get the Plumlee brothers on the bench, and keep them there Arizona will not only dominate the offensive post, but also the very important battle of the boards. Creating extra possessions, and limiting opposing possessions will only help the Wildcats in their quest to beat the defending champions.

Not only is Arizona good down low, but their guards can play as well. As a team, Arizona shoots nearly 40 percent from behind the arc, good enough for 11th in the nation. Against Texas, Arizona matched up against one of the games best at defensing the three.

Texas was second in three point defense this season. How does Arizona react? They shoot 57% from beyond the arc. They tore the Longhorns perimeter defense to shreds throughout the game. Duke is also great at defending the three, but if Arizona continues their hot streak they should have no problem handling Duke's pesky perimeter defense.

Not only is Arizona efficient from three point range, they are also efficient at defending it. Duke struggled to make three's against the Wolverines, but if they thought that defense was tough, they are going to have a rough time against the Wildcats. While Michigan is a solid team when it comes to defending the three, they are no match for Arizona. Michigan was 54th at defending the three, while Arizona was second. Duke has relied on outside shooting throughout the season, but they will struggle against Arizona's stingy defense.

Another concern of Duke has to be depth. I have already touched on this, but this becomes bigger than ever against a team like Arizona and it cannot be stressed enough. Duke played only eight players in their game against Michigan, half of them finished with three or more fouls. Arizona, on the other hand, put eleven players on the floor against Texas.

Some analyst's claim Duke's chemistry may be thrown off now that Kyrie Irving is back. While this may sound a little misguided we have to look at what changes when Irving is on the floor. He is the one that will likely bring up the ball the majority of the time which completely changes the entire dynamic of Duke's offense. Nolan Smith who has emerged as Duke's best player is now playing off the ball, in a different role than what he has been in this entire season in which he has been playing extremely well.

While this new role didn't seem to affect his scoring total in this last game, he only dished out two assists compared to his season average of just over five a game. 

Duke struggled to score in the low post in their game against the Wolverines. This is a little bit alarming considering that Michigan plays in four guard sets a lot of times which could create plenty of mismatches on the block for the Blue Devils. Whether the tempo of the game permitted them to or not, Duke should have tried to get it inside throughout the game to establish the post. If they couldn't score against Michigan, they definitely will not be able to score against Derrick Williams and the Wildcats.

Not only will Arizona have a huge advantage against Duke in the offensive low post, they should also be able continue their hot streak from behind the arc. If Derrick Williams can get Duke's bigs in foul trouble early, this game could swing in Arizona's favor.

This will be one of the few times this season where Nolan Smith may not be the best player on the floor. The Wildcats have a force of their own underneath and it would not be surprising if he were to continue his streak of clutch tournament play. This is not to say that Arizona will win, but under the right circumstances, they certainly can.