NCAA Bracket Update 2011: Predictions for All Sweet 16 Games
The first rounds of the 2010-11 NCAA tournament have been nothing short of remarkable.
There was no shortage of hard-fought battles, buzzer-beating upsets and superior individual performances.
And the best may be yet to come!
The Sweet 16 looks to be an excellent collection of great teams that are playing at a very high level.
I don't think you could have scripted better games, better finishes or better matchups than these.
The following are predictions for each of the Sweet 16 games.
Weigh in with your opinions. Tell me where you think I'm wrong (as if I had to tell you to do that). Give me all eight of your predictions for these upcoming games on Thursday and Friday.
(3) Connecticut vs. (2) San Diego State
1 of 8
This game highlights the stark differences between the history of Connecticut and San Diego State's basketball programs.
UConn has a full March Madness résumé with two national championships, three Final Fours, 29 NCAA tournament appearances and an overall tournament record of 46-29.
Comparatively, San Diego State is an NCAA tournament novice, having made six previous appearances before this year without winning a single game.
Fortunately for Steve Fisher's Aztecs, though, all of the past accomplishments (or lack thereof) will not determine the outcome of this Sweet 16 battle in Anaheim, California—less than 100 miles from the SDSU campus.
UConn is riding a seven-game winning streak after winning five games in five days in the Big East tournament.
Point guard Kemba Walker is the key to UConn's attack. When Walker is on, it is nearly impossible to shut down the Huskies.
San Diego State's game is all about its frontcourt and interior play.
Kawhi Leonard leads the team in both scoring (15.6 points per game) and rebounds (10.6 rebounds per game).
The Aztecs are No. 6 in the nation in scoring defense (58.8 points per game).
Both teams are stingy when it comes to allowing their opponents to shoot from the field.
Connecticut is holding its opponents to 39.9 percent. SDSU only lets its opponents shoot 39.3 percent from the field.
Even though this would be a big win for either team (for this tournament), this would be the biggest win in SDSU history.
San Diego State by two
(3) Brigham Young vs. (2) Florida
2 of 8
When Florida and BYU square off in New Orleans for the Sweet 16, we will see two different kinds of teams.
Florida, out of the SEC, has four starters who average double figures, and its assist leader is a 6'10" forward.
Chandler Parsons, the SEC Player of the Year, does a little of everything. He scores 11.4 points, grabs 7.7 rebounds and dishes out 3.7 assists.
Florida likes to balance transition basketball with running half-court sets.
BYU, out of the Mountain West, has the nation's leading scorer, who handles the ball about 75 percent of the time and also leads the team in assists.
Jimmer Fredette, the MWC Player of the Year, scores points in bunches. He is averaging 28.8 points per game on the season and 37 points per game in his last four games.
BYU likes to run at every opportunity—the Cougars average nearly 82 points per game.
Both coaches have enjoyed a lot of success.
Billy Donovan is 358-145 at Florida (15 seasons), winning back-to-back NCAA championships in 2006-07.
Dave Rose has coached at BYU for six seasons with a 159-44 record.
The key matchup will be between the point guards.
Erving Walker, the Gators point guard, is a 5'8" speed demon and he will be able to apply defensive pressure on Fredette. If he can rattle Jimmer, it could be a long afternoon for the Cougars.
A win against UF would not only allow BYU to continue in the tournament, but it would also validate the success that it has enjoyed this season.
BYU by three
(8) Butler vs. (4) Wisconsin
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Butler's magical college basketball ride continued Saturday night, as the Bulldogs beat Pitt with an incredibly unlikely last-second turn of events to advance to the Sweet 16.
In late January, the Bulldogs lost three straight road games (Milwaukee, Valparaiso and Youngstown State). At that time, they were 14-9 and in danger of having a very disappointing season.
They have not lost since then, winning 11 straight. There's something about getting hot at the right time of the season.
Butler is led by Matt Howard (16.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per game) and Shelvin Mack (15.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game). Both played significant roles on last year's team that played in the championship game against Duke.
Wisconsin played a challenging schedule in 2010-11, and all of its eight losses this season have come at the hands of teams that have played or are still playing in the NCAA tournament.
The Badgers defeated two good teams (Belmont and Kansas State) with impressive precision to get to the Sweet 16.
Wisconsin has its own dynamic duo—Jon Leuer (18.7 points and 7.3 rebounds per game) and Jordan Taylor (18.0 points, 4.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game), both of whom were selected to the All-Big Ten first team.
One of the key matchups for this game will be Mack vs. Taylor. If Mack can have anything close to another shooting night like he had against Pitt (30 points on 10-of-16 shooting, including 7-of-12 from three-point range), then Butler will be right in the mix.
Wisconsin by four
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(5) Arizona vs. (1) Duke
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Ten years ago, Arizona squared off against Duke in the NCAA tournament championship game. Even though it was a two-point game at half, the Blue Devils pulled away to win decisively, 82-72.
This Thursday, the two teams will battle in the 2011 Sweet 16, with Duke the heavy favorite.
Arizona had two challenging contests (against Memphis and Texas) to get here, needing last-second heroics from Derrick Williams both times in order to prevail.
All year, Williams has been the Cats' go-to player, leading the team in scoring (19.1 points per game) and rebounding (8.2 rebounds per game). The 6'8" sophomore power forward shoots a surprising 58 percent from beyond the arc.
Duke had a laugher of an opening-round game against Hampton but had to hold off a late-charging Michigan Wolverines team to get to this Sweet 16 matchup.
The Blue Devils rely on the one-two punch of Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler.
Smith leads the team in scoring (21.3 points per game) and assists (5.2 assists per game), while Singler brings inside-outside scoring (17.6 points per game) and rebounding (6.8 rebounds per game).
Kyrie Irving's physical status remains a huge question mark for Thursday's game. If the phenomenal freshman point guard is at full strength, the Blue Devils are a completely different team.
Much like the contest of 10 years ago, the individual teams' field-goal percentages will be a huge factor in this week's game.
Ten years ago, Duke held Arizona to 39-percent shooting, with the Wildcats making only four of 22 attempts from beyond the arc.
If the Wildcats are to have a chance in this one, they need to make good decisions with the ball in terms of limiting turnovers and shot selection.
Duke by seven
(11) Marquette vs. (2) North Carolina
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Marquette and North Carolina took two very different paths to arrive in this year's Sweet 16.
Marquette had to do everything it could to survive the Big East regular season. Then it had to hope and pray that it even got into the NCAA tournament as its conference's 11th team to qualify.
Then, as a No. 11 seed, the Golden Eagles had to eliminate both No. 6-seed Xavier and No. 3-seed Syracuse to make it to this matchup.
North Carolina decisively beat Duke in the final regular season game to win the ACC and improve its seeding for the NCAA tournament.
The Tar Heels ran over Long Island in their opening game and then had to hold off a hungry Washington Huskies team to arrive in the Sweet 16 for an NCAA-record 24th time.
Marquette rolls when Jimmy Butler is rolling. The 6'7" wing averages 16 points and six rebounds per game. Butler has had two relatively quiet games so far in the tournament.
Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder have provided more of Marquette's scoring punch in the opening-round games.
North Carolina has the most imposing frontcourt trio in the tournament with Tyler Zeller, John Henson and Harrison Barnes holding down the paint.
The late-season emergence of Henson as a defensive/shot-blocking force is a key to UNC's success. He has had 14 straight games with at least 10 rebounds or more.
Tar Heels point guard Kendall Marshall is coming into his own. Against Washington, he had 14 assists, breaking Kenny Smith's single-game school (tournament) record.
Marquette's biggest challenge will be dealing with the Tar Heels' size and skill in the frontcourt. If it can somehow neutralize North Carolina's big men, it will take the game down to the wire.
North Carolina by four
(12) Richmond vs. (1) Kansas
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Richmond and Kansas arrive at this Sweet 16 matchup from different angles.
Richmond was the third of three entries from the Atlantic 10 Conference this year. Richmond only made it to this round of the NCAA tournament twice before, but those two times were in the 1980s.
The Spiders upset Vanderbilt in their opening-round game and then took apart Morehead State in the next round.
For four straight years, a No. 12 seed has reached the Sweet 16.
Kansas won this year's Big 12 regular season and tournament championships and it was the No. 2-ranked team nationally coming into March Madness.
Kansas is one of the most storied college basketball programs, with 39 NCAA tournament appearances, participating in 13 Final Fours and winning three national championships.
Left alone in the Southwest Region with the No. 10, 11 and 12 seeds, Kansas will not have to face a team seeded better than No. 9 if it reaches the Final Four.
But let's not get ahead of ourselves. No one in Lawrence wants to talk much about going up against Northern Iowa last year, right?
Richmond is led by 6'10" do-everything player Justin Harper. The senior forward averages nearly 18 points and seven rebounds per game. He not only is a load in the middle—Harper can also step out and hit the three, connecting on 45 percent of his shots beyond the arc.
Kansas flies high with the inside-outside talents of Marcus and Markieff Morris. On the year, the twin brothers account for over 30 points and 15 rebounds per game.
Do not expect the Spiders to come into this game tense or tight. The Spiders have now won nine straight since Richmond head coach Chris Mooney called for a friendly touch football game just to lighten the mood following a loss to Temple on Feb. 17.
Kansas by five
(4) Kentucky vs. (1) Ohio State
7 of 8
The Kentucky versus Ohio State game could be known as the talent-versus-talent matchup.
Kentucky puts three of the best freshmen in the country on the floor in Brandon Knight, Terrence Jones and Doron Lamb.
These three account for 46 points and 15 rebounds per game.
Josh Harrellson has stepped up to be an enforcer in the paint, playing tough defense and leading the Wildcats in rebounding (8.8 per game).
Like most John Calipari-coached teams, Kentucky holds its opponents under 40-percent shooting from the field.
Ohio State not only responds with a freshman phenom of its own (Jared Sullinger), but also with as many elite-level players and as much depth as any team in the nation.
If there is anything close to a dominating team in this year's NCAA tournament, it is the Buckeyes.
Four of the Buckeyes starters (Sullinger, William Buford, Jon Diebler and David Lighty) average double-figure scoring.
In a late regular-season game against Wisconsin, OSU hit on 14 of 15 three-pointers, with Diebler leading the way by connecting on seven-of-eight attempts.
The matchup with Harrellson going against Sullinger could be the key to this game. Both players are 6'10" and weigh around 280 pounds.
If Harrellson can contain Sullinger and keep him from getting into his groove, then the Wildcats will be able to match Ohio State man for man.
Ohio State by three
(11) Virginia Commonwealth vs. (10) Florida State
8 of 8
Is it great or what that we have a No. 11 seed playing a No. 10 seed in the Sweet 16?
These two teams, along with Richmond, form the first trio of double-digit-seeded teams to make it this far in the same region since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
Florida State has bought into the adage that defense wins championships.
Leonard Hamilton's Seminoles are tops in defensive field-goal percentage.
Last night, they held Notre Dame to 31.7-percent shooting, and they have held their past six opponents to a combined 34.3 percent.
FSU fans are excited about getting Chris Singleton—the team's best scorer, rebounder and defender—back from injury and they look forward to him playing more minutes during this upcoming game.
Virginia Commonwealth was the team that everybody said shouldn't be in the tournament. It supposedly didn't have enough quality wins.
Does beating USC (Pac-10), Georgetown (Big East) and Purdue (Big Ten) put to rest all of the insipid chatter about the Rams? They not only beat these three teams—they punched them in the mouth!
Good for VCU coach Shaka Smart and his team!
Jamie Skeen is the Rams' man. The 6'9", 240-pound forward leads VCU in both scoring (15.2 points per game) and rebounding (7.3 rebounds per game).
If Skeen is Batman, Bradford Burgess is Robin, scoring 14 points and grabbing six rebounds per game.
This will be a battle of two hard-playing, good defensive teams. Neither may get out of the 50s, but this could be as close a game as we see in the Sweet 16.
If Singleton does make it back and can contribute, that will give FSU a slight edge.
Florida State by one
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