2011 NCAA Tournament: Can the Gonzaga Bulldogs Win It All?

DENVER, CO—There is talk abound that the No. 11-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs could run the table and take the tournament by storm. Their size matches up well against nearly any opponent they might face and could easily carry them to the Final Four.

After being out-rebounded 43-20 in their loss to the Bulldogs in the round of 64 Thursday night, St. John’s head coach Steve Lavin told ESPN reporters that, “Their size was able to dominate at the rim and in the lane at both ends of the floor. That was a concern coming in and it played itself out. We haven’t been out-rebounded like that all year.”

Gonzaga shot .538 percent from the floor, including going 9-for-15 from behind the arc. However, they are going to need a repeat performance on Saturday if they expect to have any chance of advancing past No. 3-seeded BYU and the nation’s top scorer, Jimmer Fredette.

It’s true that the Bulldogs are better than their No. 11 seeding suggests. The have also come into the tournament winning their last nine games, including the win over Saint Mary’s that won them their second WCC title in three years and punched their ticket to the big show.

However, they would have a long, uphill battle to climb on their way to even the Elite Eight—a challenge that is simply too much for Gonzaga. The fact is that the Bulldogs’ only real strength against the Red Storm was their strong defense under the basket with 43 rebounds.

That is nearly six more than their season average of 37.4. That being said, St. John's was a shell of its former self without their team leader, and regular season rebounder, D.J. Kennedy. Kennedy watched from the bench with a torn right ACL, a battle wound from the Big East tournament last weekend.

Even if Gonzaga could shut down the country’s eighth-best offense in BYU, outscore the nation’s best scorer in Jimmer Fredette and win the battle under the net—all big ifs—they would be facing two more games in a gauntlet of much stronger teams to get to the Final Four.

First, they would have to go up against the winner of UCLA and Florida, two teams who are battle-hardened from long seasons in the Pac-10 and SEC, respectively.

The Bulldogs match up decently against both the Bruins and Gators, so let’s say for the sake of argument that they win that one. Now they face the winner from the top half of the bracket—most likely Pittsburgh or possibly Kansas State. Gonzaga beating Kansas State isn’t out of the question, but taking down the No. 1-seeded Pittsburgh Panthers is significantly less likely. In the averages, the Panthers score two less points than the Bulldogs, but allow nearly four less points per game.

Pitt also comes from the NCAA powerhouse Big East, and they were the regular season champs in the conference, losing just three conference games and five total games all season.

Again for the sake of argument, let’s say that they are still in it when the Final Four rolls around. Now they go up against the Southwest Regional winner. Even if they can pull all the other upsets to get this far, this is certainly where the road ends for the Bulldogs. There are simply much more talented teams who could come out of the Southwest including Kansas, Notre Dame, Purdue and Georgetown.

The saving grace for the Gonzaga Bulldogs is that they are still young enough to get stronger on both sides of the ball, come back next season and be more highly seeded contenders for the Final Four or even the Finals. Of the 12 players on their roster, the have only one senior they will be losing—team points leader Steven Gray—and three juniors who will be back again next season.

They’ll also be more attuned to playing bigger name teams with BYU joining the WCC next season. However, expect Saturday’s matchup against the Cougars to be a sign of things to come for Gonzaga and the conference.

If Gonzaga can shut down Fredette, they have a shot at this game and then a decent shot of making the Final Four. Not to mention that it sets the stage for years to come in conference play between these two teams.

Don’t hold your breath.

Prediction: BYU wins over Gonzaga 80-74