NCAA Tournament 2011: Gonzaga Poised to Make Run With St. John's as First Victim

Fans of the mid-major that is the Gonzaga Bulldogs have been very spoiled for the better part of the last decade.  It started with their improbable run in 1999 when they just missed making the Final Four.  Then there was the 2006 tournament and a near-miss of making the Elite Eight.

The 2010/11 season got off to a very slow start for Gonzaga, albeit against some top talent.  They lost by three to the two seed San Deigo State Aztecs.  They also lost to Kansas State and Illinois, both of whom are in the NCAA Tournament.  They closed out the difficult run by travelling to Notre Dame who is also a two seed.  They lost a tight game by just four points.  

Following those tough defeats Gonzaga started to gel.  They beat Baylor, and Xavier, who is now a six seed.  They also overpowered Oklahoma State, who had to settle for an appearance in the NIT.  By no means was Gonzaga dominant this season, but they did prove they are not out of place against elite teams.

Aside from the difficult matchups, Gonzaga was dealing with other issues early on.  Steven Gray, their leading scorer, was dealing with some health issues during that stretch.  Gonzaga was also incorporating youth into the lineup, such as Freshmen Guard David Stockton and Junior transfer student Marquise Carter.  Both have been a much bigger part of the offense down the stretch.  Elias Harris has also been integral over the last month.

The Bulldogs open the NCAA contest against St. John’s, who earned a six seed by going 12-6 in the Big East.  They lost to Syracuse 79-73 in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament.  St. John’s highlights were impressive home wins over Pitt and Duke.  They split their two games vs. Notre Dame, with the home team winning big.  In another common matchup to Gonzaga, St. John’s lost to St. Mary’s (Gonzaga won two of their three matchups).

St. John’s also had a few head-scratching losses.  They suffered a one point loss to St. Bonaventure, who came in seventh in the Atlantic 10.  The Fordham Rams, who came in last in the Atlantic 10 also managed to trip up St. John’s 84-81.  A road matchup against UCLA also proved to be too much for the Johnies.

The biggest factor in St. John’s success seemed to be location.  They were a much better team at home, going 13-3.  Most of their bad losses were on the road, where they stumbled to a mark of 5-7.  They will have to travel to Denver and should expect the atmosphere to be close to a road game.

St. John’s has one other major hurdle to overcome heading into the tournament.  Their biggest loss in the contest with Syracuse wasn’t the game; it was losing Senior D.J. Kennedy.  He was the leading rebounder and third in scoring for the team this season, as well as being a team leader.  He’ll still be on the bench with the team, but his presence could be sorely missed on the hardwood. 

Gonzaga’s rebounding is led by Robert Sacre, a 7’0” Junior.  Sophomore Elias Harris has been steadily improving this year as well, helping fill the middle at 6’7”. 

St. John’s 6’8” Senior reserve Sean Evans will be asked to stand in for Kennedy.  However, he and 6’7” Justin Brownlee look to be severely overmatched in the paint and on the boards.  The Johnies rely on being a physical team in the half court, pressuring on defense, forcing turnovers or poor shots.  They want to run in transition and utilize their speed, compensating for their lack of height. 

This will be challenging against Gonzaga, as they will likely need to dedicate extra bodies to help with rebounding.  If the Bulldogs can play ball control and avoid turnovers, St. John’s will be hard pressed to keep up with Gonzaga on the scoreboard.

When you combine the loss of Kennedy with playing outside the friendly confines of Madison Square Garden or Carnesecca Arena, the matchup vs. Gonzaga should worry St. John’s.  Analysts covering this game look at Gonzaga as being inconsistent and overmatched vs. elite opposition, and basically ignore this matchup when talking about how far St. John’s can go in the tournament.

It isn’t likely the Johnies are looking beyond anyone at this point.  But neither is Gonzaga expecting to be done playing after this game.  Expect a competitive matchup, but the Zags look to have too much power inside.