March Madness 2011 Predictions: Breaking Down the Experts' Picks
The NCAA tournament officially kicks off this evening with two of the "first-round, don't call us play-in games." The first game on the schedule is UNC-Asheville against Arkansas-Little Rock at 6:30 p.m. EST. Following them will be Clemson taking on UAB, two of the more controversial tournament teams this year.
Obviously, tonight is not going to make or break your bracket, but at least it's better than not having any games on at all.
The games that we are all interested in start up on Thursday afternoon.
We are going to go through the analysts' and experts' brackets to let you know what they are saying is going to happen, and we will give our two cents on what they are saying is going to happen in this NCAA tournament.
Here is a rundown of all the expert picks for the 2011 NCAA tournament.
ESPN.com Pat Forde Predicts...
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Final Four: Ohio State, Duke, Notre Dame, Kansas State
National Champion: Notre Dame
ESPN.com college sports analyst Pat Forde likes Notre Dame to take the championship. He doesn't care for Ohio State's draw, not that too many people do.
"OSU athletic director Gene Smith was the head of the NCAA tournament selection committee, yet he stuck his own team with what I think is the toughest region in the whole tournament," he wrote.
It's hard to argue with the draw for the Buckeyes: North Carolina, Syracuse and Kentucky round out the top four seeds in that region.
Forde is one of the few analysts who likes Notre Dame to get to the Final Four. The one thing that worries me about the Fighting Irish is their size. They are a guard-oriented team that has to shoot well from the outside to win, so one off-night and they are done.
ESPN.com's Andy Katz Predicts...
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Final Four: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Kansas, San Diego State
Notable Upset(s): No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 6 St. John's, No. 13 Belmont over No. 4 Wisconsin
Andy Katz from ESPN.com didn't offer up a national champion with his Final Four picks, but he did provide some insight into the tournament, as only he can.
"I liked Oakland as a possible Sweet 16 team when I watched the Golden Grizzlies early in the season, but once again it's all about matchups," he wrote. "I don't like Oakland beating Texas because of the Longhorns' ability to defend on the perimeter."
While Katz certainly knows more about college basketball than I pretend to, I disagree with his assessment on this one. Texas doesn't score as much as it should, and its defense has been suspect lately. Oakland will pull off the upset in its game with Texas.
Belmont is the glamour pick to pull off the biggest upset of the first round because the Bruins can score and Wisconsin can't. After watching the Badgers against Penn State, I don't know how they got a No. 4 seed.
Another upset special that Katz likes is No. 12 Richmond over No. 5 Vanderbilt.
"Vanderbilt can't catch a break. The Commodores drew hot mid-majors Siena and Murray State in recent tournaments and lost to both in the first round. Richmond is on a roll right now with the A-10 title win. The Spiders will be a trendy 12-5 upset pick."
SI.com's Luke Winn Predicts...
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Final Four: Ohio State, Duke, Pitt, Notre Dame
Notable Upset(s): No. 13 over No. 4 Wisconsin, No. 12 Richmond over No. 5 Vanderbilt, No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 6 St. John's
Luke Winn from Sports Illustrated goes into a ton of detail with his predictions. He breaks down each individual region and uses efficiency ratings to rank the top four seeds in each region.
In his official breakdown, Winn ranks the West as the toughest region—Duke, San Diego State, UConn and Texas are the top four teams—followed by the East, Southwest and Southeast.
The Southeast is all set up for Pitt to win the region. The Panthers have the weakest No. 2, 3 and 4 seeds in the tournament with Florida, BYU and Wisconsin.
Regarding his national champion, Ohio State, Winn said, "The Buckeyes are the most complete, least-vulnerable team in the field, and I can’t see them tripping up against Kentucky, Syracuse or even Duke. Their depth is not an issue because they don’t foul, and they’ve surrounded Jared Sullinger with so many weapons, from William Buford to Jon Diebler to David Lighty, that they’ll always find ways to score."
Ohio State is deep, but extremely young. While I think youth is often an overrated factor in professional sports, in college it tends to benefit teams that have played together for at least one year.
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SI.com Stewart Mandel Predicts...
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Final Four: Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, Florida
National Championship: Kansas Over Duke
In Stewart Mandel's bracket breakdown on SI.com, he gives Pitt the best draw, just like everyone else, but he likes Florida coming out of the Southwest region.
Regarding his Florida pick in the Final Four he says, "Sorry—just don't have faith in Pitt. Billy Donovan knows a thing or two about Final Fours, and his team has been exceptional away from home."
Pitt does have some questions that it will have to answer to make a serious run in this tournament. The Panthers won't outscore anyone, so they have to rely on their defense and rebounding to put together a run of at least four wins. Their defense is good, but they got exposed against Connecticut in the Big East tournament.
He lists what the best game of each round will be. His best first-round game is No. 6 St. John's against No. 11 Gonzaga.
"Steve Lavin makes his return to the Dance with a veteran team that will be down one key player, injured forward D.J. Kennedy, when it meets Robert Sacre and the Zags, winners of their last nine," he wrote.
Kansas as the national champion is almost a no-brainer to Mandel. "But this Kansas team looks an awful lot like Bill Self's 2008 title team—deep, fast, explosive and confident. The Jayhawks get another One Shining Moment," he said.
CBSSports.com's Peter Tiernan Predicts...
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Final Four: Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, Pittsburgh
National Championship: Kansas over Ohio State
Peter Tiernan from CBSSports.com might have the most complex, intricate formula for determining a national champion of anyone on the Internet. He has developed a scientific method to make every single pick in the tournament. Using it, he winds up with a Final Four featuring all four No. 1 seeds.
His bracket is rather boring when you look at it, with only a minimum number of upsets happening. The biggest upset that he has is Washington knocking off North Carolina in the second round, which wouldn't be that big of an upset because the teams are so similar.
His "bracket strategy," as he calls it, is defined by 14 points, which are very layered and detailed to ensure the most accurate result possible.
Among the points on the strategy are things like: "How many times has the coach been to the tournament?" "What's their strength of schedule?" "Where do they rate on offensive and defensive efficiency?"
Give Tiernan credit, at least he is trying to look for logic with every single pick that he makes. Most of us just pick an upset for the sake of picking an upset because you know one is going to happen somewhere.
CBSSports.com's Gary Parrish Predicts...
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Final Four: Ohio State, San Diego State, Kansas, Wisconsin
Notable Upset(s): Two No. 11 seeds—Marquette and Missouri—in the Sweet 16
National Championship: Ohio State over Kansas
Gary Parrish from CBSSports.com did something that I appreciate as a fan: He listed seven teams that he could actually see winning the whole tournament. It may not seem like a big deal, but some of us like to know who else to look for besides the teams that everyone has going to the Final Four.
For the record, the teams that he sees with national championship potential are Ohio State, Kansas, Duke, Texas, North Carolina, Pitt and Kentucky.
One thing that did catch my eye was his prediction of Wisconsin in the Final Four. I know the Badgers had a good record and are a good defensive team, but they are awful on the offensive side of the ball, and they will be without Mike Bruesewitz because he was hurt against Penn State in that 36-33 loss in the Big Ten tournament.
San Diego State is a great sleeper pick for the Final Four. I know that the Aztecs are a No. 2 seed, but I don't think people appreciate how good they have been this year. They lost two games—to the same team, BYU. They had 10 wins against the RPI top 100, six against the top 50. They played the ninth-most difficult nonconference schedule in the country and went 16-0.
In the end, Parrish goes with the chalk in the Final Four with Ohio State defeating San Diego State and Kansas over Wisconsin.
Yahoo! Sports' Gerry Ahern Predicts...
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Final Four: Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, Pittsburgh
National Championship: Ohio State over Pittsburgh
Gerry Ahern from Yahoo! goes against the grain and takes Ohio State. In fact, all four Yahoo! college basketball analysts who have bracket predictions on the website have the Buckeyes winning the national championship.
There's a lot to like with Ohio State, but to go with the three remaining No. 1 seeds in the Final Four is a little anti-climactic.
The biggest surprise in Ahern's bracket is Gonzaga going to the Sweet 16 before losing to Florida. He has the Zags taking out St. John's in the first round before upsetting the overrated BYU Cougars in the second round.
Yahoo! Sports Mike Huguenin Predicts...
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Final Four: Ohio State, Texas, Kansas, Pittsburgh
National Championship: Ohio State over Pittsburgh
Mike Huguenin is the second Yahoo! Sports analyst to predict Ohio State winning it all.
Texas could be one of the most dangerous teams in this tournament because it has a ton of talent and was ranked the No. 2 team in the country in January. The Longhorns could also be one-and-done because Oakland is a dangerous team that presents a lot of problems for this Texas team, especially on the inside.
He does have St. John's and Washington, two notable "Cinderella" teams—if you want to call them that since they play in major conferences—in the Elite Eight.
Washington is an increasingly popular pick because the Huskies play a fast-paced, uptempo style that can give a lot of teams fits.
St. John's played well against some of the big boys in the Big East, and No. 1 seed Duke, but beware of that first game against Gonzaga. That could be its most dangerous test before the Elite Eight.
Yahoo! Sports' Jason King Predicts...
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Final Four: Ohio State, Duke, Kansas, Pitt
National Championship: Ohio State over Kansas
Jason King is the third Yahoo! Sports analyst to predict an Ohio State national championship and the second to predict all four No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.
One team that I haven't really talked about, but a lot of people have in the Final Four, is Duke. The Blue Devils enter the tournament having won another ACC tournament and, oh by the way, things point towards Kyrie Irving playing in this tournament.
Don't underestimate the impact that he will have on this team. He is a game-changing type player. In fact, analysts have said that if he plays, Duke goes from a possible Final Four team to a national championship team.
How much Irving is able to play will be key, but the Blue Devils won't need him to log a lot of minutes until next weekend, anyway.
Ohio State and Kansas are getting a lot of love from these experts as the choice for the National Championship game. It's hard to argue with that because they have been the two best teams all year long and have as much talent as anyone in the country.
Yahoo! Sports' Dan Wetzel Predicts...
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Final Four: Ohio State, Connecticut, Kansas, Pittsburgh
National Championship: Ohio State over Kansas
Another Ohio State-Kansas matchup, this time from Dan Wetzel on Yahoo! Sports.
Aside from the Final Four, which for the most part is standard, Wetzel does take Oakland to beat Texas in the first round of the tournament. That's a game that, if I am a Texas fan, scares me to no end. Oakland is very good inside and played Ohio State earlier in the year—granted they got destroyed—so it won't be intimidated.
I don't see Connecticut as a Final Four team. The Huskies have a great player in Kemba Walker, but they strike me as the Syracuse team that came out of nowhere to win the Big East tournament in 2006. For those that don't remember, Syracuse lost its first tournament game to Texas A&M. I don't think UConn will lose in the first round, but it won't beat San Diego State in the Sweet 16.
Wetzel does have Xavier in the Elite Eight, if you are looking for an upset special, and knocking off Syracuse in the second round and North Carolina in the Sweet 16. The Tar Heels got exposed a bit in the ACC tournament. If you can press them all the way up the court, they get out of whack and don't know what to do.
Final Analysis
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Despite playing in the toughest bracket in the tournament, Ohio State is a near-lock to reach the Final Four, appearing on nine of the 10 expert brackets. Kansas is right behind them with eight experts putting them in the Final Four.
The Buckeyes are predicted by six of these experts—granted, some of them haven't yet offered their national champions—to win the title. The only other team that got any votes was Kansas, with two experts predicting them to win the whole thing.
Most people figure that three of the No. 1 seeds will advance to the Final Four. To me that seems like a high number. Last year, two of the four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, and in 2009 only one of the top seeds made it to the Final Four.
It's easy to pick the top teams to go to the Final Four because they generally have the most talent, but we all know that upsets are going to happen. Will the No. 1 seeds be victims of those upsets?
The great question coming into the tournament is Duke and Kyrie Irving. If he plays, the Blue Devils are as dangerous as any team. If he doesn't, they can still get to a Final Four, but their odds decrease substantially.
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