NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: Top 10 Possible First-Round Upsets
First-round upsets are part of what makes the NCAA Men's Basketball Championship the amazing event that it is. This year will be no different.
As much as it would make sense that the games would go according to the seeds, they never do. The following is a list of the 10 most possible first-round upsets.
We will feature the roles that the coaches play in these matchups
There may be other upsets, but you need to think long and hard about choosing these games as you are filling out your bracket.
(10) Michigan State Beats (7) UCLA
1 of 10
Michigan State was supposed to be a national championship contender this season.
In the preseason ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll, they were ranked No. 2 behind the defending champs, Duke.
Tom Izzo always plays a difficult pre-conference schedule and this year was no different.
They were matched up early on against UConn, Washington, Duke, Syracuse and Texas. They were only 1-4 against these ranked teams.
The bigger issue was how they fared once Big Ten play started. The Spartans lost an early game to Penn State, but then lost six (Illiinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio State) of eight conference games from mid-January to mid-February. The Spartans pulled out of this tailspin to finish the conference with a 9-9 record.
Now, going into this first round matchup with UCLA, the Spartans are ready to move back towards where they hoped they would be; making a deep run in March.
UCLA is coming off of a embarrassing defeat in the Pac-10 tourney to Oregon. Michigan State's overall athleticism and physicality may be the difference in this one.
Verdict: Spartans win by 4
(10) Florida State Beats (7) Texas A&M
2 of 10
Florida State handed Duke its first loss of the season back in January.
And with that one game, the Seminoles were officially on the 2010-11 college basketball radar from then on. Unfortunately for Leonard Hamilton's squad, Chris Singleton, the team's leading scorer and rebounder, went down to injury shortly after this game.
FSU still went 9-5 the rest of the way to end up 21-9. They were upset by Virginia Tech in the first round of the ACC tournament.
Florida State is hoping to have Singleton back in the NCAA tournament. If he comes back with anything close to his full game, the Seminoles will be in good shape to take down Texas A&M in the first round.
A&M has been good this season (wins against Temple, Washington, Missouri and Kansas State) but they have lacked a signature win.
The Seminoles' defensive pressure is the key to the outcome in this game.
If they are successful at forcing A&M out of their offense and into making some careless mistakes, then they will put one more big win on their side.
Verdict: Florida State by 2
(11) Marquette Beats (6) Xavier
3 of 10
Buzz Williams, Marquette's head coach, is ready to take on anyone. Especially anyone outside of the Big East.
The Golden Eagles survived the gauntlet that is their Big East conference schedule. Going 9-9 in conference sounds like a sub-standard year. Not so.
They beat Notre Dame, West Virginia twice and Syracuse this year. Not easy wins. Marquette is prepared to face just about anything as they open the first round against Xavier.
Xavier is not a Atlantic 10 pushover by any means. Chris Mack has the Musketeers playing great basketball (24-7, 15-1 Atlantic 10).
Watch for Marquette's Jimmy Butler and Jae Crowder to come up big in this one.
Verdict: Marquette by 1
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(11) USC Beats (6) Georgetown
4 of 10
Assumption #1: USC beats VCU in the play-in game....Why is there even an 11-seed play-in game?
If Georgetown is still playing without their point guard (Wright), the Hoyas are vulnerable. In fact, they lost five of their last six games, with their lone win coming in a close game against South Florida.
USC is having to work through their own set of challenges with their coach Kevin O'Neil being suspended for their one game in the Pac-10 tournament.
The Trojans play a tough, hard-nosed style of ball that will create challenges for Georgetown. Nikola Vucevic is one of the most underrated big men in the country, averaging a double-double on the season.
The Trojans like to grind it out. If they can control the tempo, and keep the game in the 50's, they will pull off the upset.
Verdict: USC by 2
(11) Gonzaga Beats (6) St. John's
5 of 10
West Coast vs. East Coast.
Finesse vs. Force.
Just say, "Gonzaga," and most college basketball fans think "upset."
This year could be more of the same.
Mark Few has the Zags firing on all cylinders. Gonzaga has won nine in a row, 11 of their last 12, including winning the WCC tournament.
St. John's is also playing at a very high level, winning eight of their last 11.
But Steve Lavin's Red Storm has struggled away from home all season. While they are 13-3 at home (including home wins against Duke, Notre Dame, Pitt, Georgetown and UConn), they are only 5-7 on the road.
Steven Gray, Gonzaga's points and assists leader for the season, is the key to this game.
If he can score and set up his teammates to do the same, the Bulldogs can do it again.
Verdict: Gonzaga by 3
(12) Utah State Beats (5) Kansas State
6 of 10
Utah State is a team that just might pull a fast one in the first round.
Stew Morrill's team brings a 30-3 record into this game, having won nine of their last 10 games. They've held their opponents to 58.2 ppg this season, No. 3 in the nation. The Aggies played BYU tough in Provo in November.
Kansas State is a team that entered into this season with high hopes of competing for the national championship. The Wildcats were ranked No. 3 in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll and seemed like a lock to win the Big 12 title.
However, internal issues led to players leaving the team and being suspended.
But Frank Martin has pulled it all back together, with the Wildcats winning eight of their last 10 games.
February was a good month for the Wildcats, beating Kansas, Texas and Missouri within a two-week span.
One of USU's strong points is their ability to hold opponents to under 40 percent from the field (38.3 percent on the year).
If Utah State finds a way to contain Jacob Pullen, one of the nation's top performers, they have a definite shot at pulling off a major upset.
Verdict: Utah State by 1
(12) Richmond Beats (5) Vanderbilt
7 of 10
Spiders coach Chris Mooney knows what it's like to come into games as an underdog. Before coming to Richmond, Mooney coached for one season at Air Force. He also has experience as a player, as a four-year starter at Princeton.
Richmond plays hard-nosed defense, holding their opponents to 61 points a game (17th in the nation) and 30 percent shooting from beyond the arc.
This could be key against a Vanderbilt team that is a high-scoring, good shooting unit.
If the Spiders can keep the SEC scoring leader, John Jenkins (19.5 ppg), in check, they have a good chance to take down a good Commodore team.
Verdict: Richmond by 4
(12) Memphis Beats (5) Arizona
8 of 10
What a great story this would be.
Second-year head coach Josh Pastner was a player on Arizona's 1997 national championship team. After graduating, Pastner was an assistant coach their under Lute Olson for six years.
Memphis brings in one of the youngest teams in the nation, with four of their top players being freshmen.
Arizona has rebounded from some uneven years to win the Pac-10 regular season championship and post a 27-7 record.
Memphis will need big games from Will Barton and Tarik Black if they have a chance here.
Verdict: Pick 'em
(13) Oakland Beats (4) Texas
9 of 10
No one can say that Oakland is trying to take the easy way into the NCAA tournament.
The Golden Grizzlies faced Purdue, West Virginia, Illinois, Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan and Ohio State, all before Christmas.
If Greg Kampe's team plays half as tough as their coach's picture, they will run the Longhorns out of the gym.
Seriously, Oakland has the horses to run with Texas. Oakland is No. 2 in the nation in scoring (85.6 ppg).
They have proven that they are capable of hanging with some very talented teams. Oakland beat Tennessee in Knoxville, and kept up well with most of the other aforementioned tournament teams.
Texas is not at the top their game right now, going 4-4 in their last eight games, with losses to Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas State and Kansas.
If Oakland gets a big game from their senior center, Keith Benson, who leads the team in scoring (18.0), rebounding (10.1) and blocks (124), then they can take out Texas.
Verdict: Pick 'em
(13) Belmont Beats (4) Wisconsin
10 of 10
Belmont's Rick Byrd has 610 career victories, which ranks 12th among active Division I coaches. Only five head coaches have longer tenures at their respective schools. Only six coaches in the NCAA tournament have won more games than Byrd.
The Bruins are 30-4 with two losses to Tennessee, a loss to Vanderbilt and their last loss, Jan. 25 at Lipscomb. Since then, they’ve won 12 straight, including an 87-46 destruction of North Florida in the conference championship game.
Wisconsin has eight wins this season against other NCAA tournament field members, but they have lost three of their last seven. In the Big Ten tournament, the Badgers lost to Penn State 36-33, for crying out loud.
Tempo may be the key factor of this game. Wisconsin is used to holding their opponents in the 50's. Belmont loves to play the game in the 80's.
If the Bruins can play their game, then Byrd will get Belmont's biggest win ever.
Verdict: Belmont by 1
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