March Madness 2011: Picks and Predictions Against the Spread for the First Round
As soon as the March Madness Brackets were announced, the Vegas odds makers were hard at work setting the sports betting line for the games in the first round.
This is a rather daunting task considering that many of these teams are unknowns and have never faced their opponent up until this point.
Now that the March Madness spreads are all set, it’s time to look at the predictions and picks for all of the games in the first round of the tournament against the spread.
UAB Blazers vs. Clemson Tigers
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UAB Blazers vs. Clemson Tigers
At Dayton (Ohio)
The tournament tips off with a Tuesday night game between the UAB Blazers and the Clemson Tigers. The game will take place in Dayton, Ohio, and the spread has the Tigers favored by 4.5 points.
The UAB-Clemson winner moves on as the 12th seed in the east regional and plays No. 5 West Virginia in Tampa, Fla.
Neither of these teams produced a good body of work, and many questioned whether or not they should have made the tournament.
First-year coach Brad Brownell leads the Tigers into their fourth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. Clemson players were actually upset with the draw and thought they were deserving of a higher seed.
The Tigers have had limited success in the tournament getting bounced in the first round in the last three opening rounds. Clemson were given an invitation due to strong play down the stretch and in the ACC tournament, but that does not assure them of a win in this game against the Blazers.
UAB, on the other hand, is just happy to be playing after getting dumped in their conference tournament. The Blazers have not made the tournament since 2006, and it is their first trip under head coach Mike Davis.
These two teams are very similar in their approach to the game and average an identical 68 points per game. The Blazers are led by senior guard Aaron Johnson, who was named the conference USA Player of the Year. Even if the Blazers lose, they have a habit of keeping the game close, as their last four losses were decided by four points or less and two of those games went into overtime.
UAB has senior leadership and will be ready to play Clemson.
March Madness Pick: UAB (+4.5)
UNC Asheville vs. Arkansas Little Rock
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UNC Asheville vs. Arkansas Little Rock
At Dayton (Ohio)
If you’re not familiar with either of these teams, you’re not alone, as they are both smaller schools. It may not matter, as waiting in the wings for the winner is the No. 1 seed Pitt Panthers, who should make quick work of either of these teams.
The latest spread for this game has UNC Asheville favored by four points.
The UNC Asheville Bulldogs already have a talented backcourt manned by juniors Matt Dickey and J.P. Primm. The Bulldogs make their second appearance in the NCAA Tournament with the first outing occurring in 2003. They won the opening round in 2003 and have a good chance to do it again.
The Arkansas Little Rock Trojans are a one man team powered by senior guard Solomon Bozeman. Bozeman is the one player that the Trojans can lean on to win big games, but he will not be able to get off against a deep guard unit for the Bulldogs.
The main advantage for UNC Asheville is size, as the Trojans do not have any size at all.
UNC Asheville will advance to face Pittsburgh.
March Madness Pick: UNC Asheville (-4)
VCU Rams vs. USC Trojans
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VCU Rams vs. USC Trojans
At Dayton (Ohio)
Two more teams that were on the bubble will play the next play-in game, as the VCU Rams take on the USC Trojans.
The latest spread has the USC Trojans favored by 4.5 points in this game, and the winner will play against the Georgetown Hoyas.
It’s amazing that VCU even made this tournament. They finished fourth in their conference, and the only claim to fame is that they made it to the championship game after limping out of the regular season. Guard Joey Rodriguez is the strength of a Rams team that tries to use speed and the press to beat the opposition.
USC also has an ugly body of work, yet still get an invite. They feed the ball to 6'10", 260 pound Kikola Vucevic, who is averaging a double-double on the season. VCU does not have anyone that can match up with the big guy, and their only hope is that they can stop the Trojans from setting up the half-court offense and feeding the big fella.
That tactic may work early, but it won’t be enough to beat the Trojans.
March Madness Pick: USC (-4.5)
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No. 13 Morehead State vs. No. 4 Louisville
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No. 13 Morehead State vs. No. 4 Louisville
At Denver (Colorado)
It may seem like a cupcake opening round for Rick Pitino and the Cardinals, but don’t sleep on Morehead State.
The Cardinals are listed as nine point favorites for this first round affair.
The Cardinals are like any other Pitino coached team and will shoot threes and play pressure defense all game long, and this team has bought into the philosophy and play tough to the final buzzer.
Morehead State is a very talented team that has NBA level talent. Kenneth Faried is the leading rebounder in the country and a force down low. The NCAA’s all-time leading rebounder will shore up the middle but the Eagles need to play tough perimeter defense if they want to stay in this game.
The Eagles have experience on the point in senior guard Demonte Harper, and this will allow the Eagles to spread the ball around and take the double team pressure off of Faried. The most important aspect for the Eagles is that they are experienced and will not be intimidated by the venue or the Cardinals.
The Cardinals are the first team to be on upset alert when the tournament starts on Thursday.
March madness Pick: UPSET ALERT Morehead State (+9)
No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 7 Temple
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No. 10 Penn State vs. No. 7 Temple
At Tucson (Arizona)
Temple made it to the dance as an at-large-bid, and they will face Penn State, who rode an impressive performance in the Big Ten Conference tournament all the way to the big dance.
Although Temple lost in their conference tournament, they are an imposing squad. They play stellar defense allowing just 62.2 points per game, and all five of their losses this year came to a team that has made the final field of 68. The latest sports betting odds have the Owls listed as 2.5 point favorites.
The problem with the Owls is that they have not been the same team since losing Michael Eric and Scootie Randall to injury. The Owls are now forced to play small ball and will not last long in the tournament. 6'9" Lavoy Allen is the biggest player on the floor and won’t get much help trying to play down low or clog the lane.
This is something that Penn State can take advantage of. They can utilize Jeff Brooks down low to open up the deep three pointing attack that has been so successful for this team. Talor Battle can exploit this team from the outside, and Penn State should control this game if they can stay out of foul trouble.
The Nittany Lions are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games as an underdog, and the Owls are 0-3-1 ATS in the last four games in the NCAA Tournament.
The Owls can keep this close, but in the end, the Lions will be advancing.
March Madness Pick: Penn State (+2.5)
No. 12 Richmond vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt
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No. 12 Richmond vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt
At Denver (Colorado)
The 12 seed is something that always jumps out to people when they fill out their bracket because of a history of upsets. This is another game that follows suit.
The first signal that this could be a close game is the spread, as Vanderbilt is just a two point favorite.
Vanderbilt comes limping into this meeting hoping to avoid a repeat of a year ago when they were sent packing in the NCAA opener against Murray State. The Commodores have lost three of the last five games entering the tournament, while the Spiders are riding a seven game winning streak.
Vandy guard Brad Tinsley will have a very difficult time guarding Richmond guard Kevin Anderson, who is the most talented player on the court. Vanderbilt will rely on John Jenkins, the leading scorer in the SEC, to keep them one step ahead of the Spiders.
The Richmond Spiders won the Atlantic 10 conference, and they beat two ranked opponents this year in Temple and Purdue. The Spiders will have to try and keep up in the rebounding department, which has been their weakness all year long, if they want to win this game.
The Spiders are filled with seniors and NBA caliber talent and defeat Vanderbilt in the opening round.
March Madness Pick: UPSET ALERT Richmond (+2)
No. 15 Northern Colorado vs. No.2 San Diego State
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No. 15 Northern Colorado vs. No.2 San Diego State
At Tucson (Arizona)
The San Diego State Aztecs come into this game listed as 16 point favorites to take down Northern Colorado.
This is the first trip to the NCAA Tournament for Northern Colorado, so expect them to be overwhelmed by the experience. The Bears are a quality basketball team and attempting to be the fifth team to knock out a two seed, but don’t expect too much from them.
The Aztecs are a powerful team that was 36th in the nation in field-goal percentage, shooting 46.7 percent per event. The Aztecs may have some early troubles with the bears as they struggle to guard the three point arc and Devon Beitzel can light it up from downtown for the Bears.
The Aztecs should control the inside game with the dynamic duo of Kawhi Leonard and senior Malcolm Thomas who have success in the paint on a nightly basis.
The Bears had a losing record on the road and are just 1-6 against the spread in the last seven games played on a neutral court. The Aztecs are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last 21 games against a team with a winning record and on a 4-1 against the spread streak in the last five games.
Supporting a double digit favorite in the NCAA tournament can be a bankroll burner, but the Aztecs should have the advantage in this game.
March Madness Pick: San Diego State (-16)
No. 14 Bucknell at No. 3 Connecticut
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No. 14 Bucknell at No. 3 Connecticut
At Washington D.C.
The Connecticut Huskies are one of the hottest teams to enter the tournament, as they just won five games in five nights in Madison Square Garden to clinch the Big East tournament. Kemba Walker is a force to be reckoned with on the Huskies and will be the player to watch in this game with Bucknell.
The latest odds for this game have the Huskies listed as 10 point favorites.
The Bucknell Bison have success in the past in this tournament, as they knocked out No. 3 Kansas six years ago, but this is a much different team. The Bison have won 10 straight and 19 of the last 20 as they enter this meeting with the Huskies.
Bryan Cohen will be tasked with trying to contain Walker, which is nearly impossible, and the Bison will be over manned on the glass. The Huskies are 11th in the nation in rebounding, thanks to Alex Oriakhi, and will not be upset by the Bison.
The Huskies become the second double digit favorite that gets the nod to advance and cover the spread as the Huskies should roll in this contest. As long as they avoid letdown and get some rest, the Huskies will win big over Bucknell.
March Madness Pick: UConn (-10)
No. 11 Missouri and No. 6 Cincinnati
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No. 11 Missouri and No. 6 Cincinnati
At Washington D.C.
One of the most interesting first round matchups is between Cincinnati and Missouri in the west region.
This is the first NCAA appearance for the Bearcats since 2005 and the 25th overall in team history. This is the first time they have been selected to go to the Big Dance since they joined the Big East, and they could be in over their heads.
A sure sign of this is the fact that the latest odds have the Tigers listed as one point favorites to beat the Bearcats.
The Bearcats average 14 turnovers a game and will have to rely on defense and rebounds if they hope to eject Missouri in the first round. The Bearcats hold the opposition to just 59 points per game but will struggle with the high octane attack of the Tigers.
Missouri is a run-n-gun team that average over 80 points per game. They are hard to shut down, as they have five players that average in double figures and shoot 36 percent from behind the arc. Marcus Denmon is the player to watch for the Tigers, as he puts up 17 points per game and if this game is close, the edge goes to the Tigers, as they are proficient at knocking down free throws.
The Tigers win over a Bearcats team that is just happy to make it to the Big Dance.
March Madness Pick: Missouri (-1)
No. 13 Princeton vs. No. 4 Kentucky
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No. 13 Princeton vs. No. 4 Kentucky
At Tampa (Florida)
Head coach John Calipari is disappointed with his team's seeding in the tournament. They won six straight games down the stretch and were awarded with a four seed, although SEC rival Florida nabbed a two seed.
The oddsmakers gave them the respect they deserved, and the Wildcats are labeled as 13 point favorites in this game.
The Wildcats are poised to make a big run in this tourney with Brandon Knight leading the show, but they have to avoid blowing leads, something they were prone to do on the road in the regular season. The Wildcats are the better team, but will have to be very patient and fundamentally sound if they want to shut down the Princeton offense.
This is a different Princeton from years ago. Although they still thrive on ball control, they prefer a higher scoring game and will look to take it to the Wildcats. Both teams are limited in experience, and that could lead to a close game.
The Wildcats won’t lose this game, but they will get a scare in the first half.
March Madness Pick: Princeton (+13)
No. 9 Old Dominion vs. No. 8 Butler
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No. 9 Old Dominion vs. No. 8 Butler
at Washington DC
Old Dominion has become the favorite sleeper in this tournament and for good reason. They won the Colonial Athletic Association tournament championship, and their team is filled with seniors that have become the winningest group in school history.
The latest spread for this game has Old Dominion as two point favorites.
Butler was the Cinderella in this tournament a year ago and will try to duplicate that success, but they are a much different team. Matt Howard is the leader on the floor and averages less than 17 points per game. The Bulldogs are making their fifth consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament and will not be taken lightly after their run a year ago.
The Monarchs thrive on defense and will have an edge on the glass against Butler. Frank Hassell is a man-child under the hoop and posted 15 double-doubles on the season. Butler will not be a push over in this game, and it could go down to the wire, but the edge is with the Monarchs.
March Madness Pick: Old Dominion (-2)
No. 15 UC Santa Barbara vs. No. 2 Florida
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No. 15 UC Santa Barbara vs. No. 2 Florida
At Tampa Bay (Florida)
The Florida Gators were on the receiving end of a generous seed and some home court advantage as they are slated to tip off in Tampa. Arguably the weaker of the two seeds, this team can make a run with the path that lies in front of them.
Because of the seed and the location, the latest odds have the Gators listed as 13 point favorites in this contest.
The UCSB Gauchos can be efficient on offense and led the Big West in free throw percentage. While the team has some talent, they will need to be very fortunate to pull off the upset over the Gators.
The Gators are led by Erving Walker, who leads the team in scoring and a bevy of surrounding talent. The Gators are 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite and will be out to prove that they deserve a No. 2 seed in this tournament.
Dropping the chalk with the Gators can be dangerous, but this should be a big win for Florida.
March Madness Pick: Florida (-13)
No. 14 Wofford at No. 3 BYU
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No. 14 Wofford at No. 3 BYU
At Denver (Colorado)
The BYU Cougars were another team to get good placement in the brackets. They grabbed a three seed and play close to home in the first round as they tip off against Wofford in Denver Colorado.
The latest odds have BYU listed as eight point favorites.
The Wofford Terriers were Southern Conference Champions, grabbing the automatic berth to play in the Big Dance. Wofford has very strong play, which is important in the tournament, as they are led by Cameron Rundles and Jamar Diggs. Down low, they have a productive duo of Noah Dahlman and Tim Johnson, who should both have an easier time putting up numbers without BYU forward Brandon Davies, who was ruled ineligible for an honor code violation.
BYU is fueled by Jimmer Fredette, who will steal the spotlight in this game, but BYU has struggled without Davies. They are just 3-2 and are getting beaten badly by sub-par programs.
Fredette is shooting wildly in an attempt to take over the game with another 50 plus point performance, which will lead to the downfall of the Cougars. The bench has not played well, and if the starters get in foul trouble, then the Terriers can leave with an upset victory.
The Terriers have experience in the big dance and took the Wisconsin badgers to the wire in the last time at the dance. This time, they get the upset win.
March Madness Pick: UPSET ALERT Wofford (+8)
No. 13 Belmont vs. No. 4 Wisconsin
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No. 13 Belmont vs. No. 4 Wisconsin
At Tucson (Arizona)
Belmont is another sleeper that the experts love to pick against the Wisconsin Badgers. The latest spread for this game just has the Badgers favored as 4.5 point favorites, indicating that this could be a close game.
The Belmont Bruins had a 22-1 run through the Atlantic Sun Conference, as they posted 30 wins on the season. The Bruins are an extremely deep team that has a solid rotation. The Bruins have 11 players who average double figure minutes in every game, making them a tough team to match up with.
Ian Clark is a sharpshooter from behind the arc and nails 46 percent of his three pointers, but he is just one of many scoring threats. Because of the depth on the team, they have multiple players that can post impressive numbers in the scoring category. They are also intimidating on defense, as they have a knack for causing turnovers.
Wisconsin point guard Jordan Taylor will be the go-to-guy to defend the Belmont defense. Taylor leads the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio and should keep the ball in play. The Badgers are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven neutral site games and the depth of the Bruins will be too much for the Badgers to handle.
March Madness Pick UPSET Alert : Belmont (+4.5)
No. 10 Michigan State vs. No. 7 UCLA
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No. 10 Michigan State vs. No. 7 UCLA
At Tampa Bay (Florida)
At the start of the year, the Spartans of Michigan State were near the top of the college basketball polls and only a few months later were expected to miss the Big Dance. They got the vote and enter the tournament as a No. 10 seed facing off against UCLA.
The Spartans are a two point favorite over the UCLA Bruins in this game, but why?
It has to be name recognition and past tournament success, because Michigan State is filled with flaws this year. They do have experience in the tournament, and that is an edge that is tough to beat, but the Bruins also have an edge in size.
UCLA has Josh Smith, Reeves Nelson, Tyler Honeycutt and Malcolm Lee that can all take advantage of their size and get to the rim for easy hoops and fouls to give UCLA the edge. The Spartans may have the edge on the perimeter, but they are not very deep and could get into some trouble late in the game.
Kalin Lucas sprained his ankle in the Big Ten tournament, and although he will play in the game, he will not be sharp and could turn over the ball like he did against Penn State.
The Spartans are 0-6 against the spread in their last six neutral site games as a favorite and will come up short in this game and be sent packing by the UCLA Bruins.
March Madness Pick: UPSET ALERT UCLA (+2)
No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 6 St. John’s
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No. 11 Gonzaga vs. No. 6 St. John’s
At Denver (Colorado)
The St. Johns Red Storm hopes their regular season success will translate to the tournament. The Red Storm are listed as two point favorites when they play NCAA Tournament Sweetheart Gonzaga in the opening round.
The Red Storm will be without a key player as they suit up against Gonzaga. Senior forward D.J. Kennedy suffered a torn ACL in the St. John’s loss to Syracuse in the Big East tournament and he will be missed. Kennedy was the most versatile player on the team and was the-leading scorer and top rebounder on the team. Dwight Hardy will look to handle the load and can torment the Zags from anywhere on the floor.
The Zags have a nine game winning streak entering the tournament and plenty of experience, which is invaluable in games like this one. The Zags need to control the pace of the game and limit the tempos from going to St. Johns.
The Red Storm does not have one single player with experience on the roster, and Hardy will attempt to do too much with Kennedy out of the lineup. The Gonzaga Bulldogs are back to being an underdog a role they thrive in, and they get the upset over a St. John’s team that will struggle in Denver.
March Madness Pick: UPSET ALERT Gonzaga (+2)
No. 12 Utah State vs. No. 5 Kansas State
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No. 12 Utah State vs. No. 5 Kansas State
At Tucson (Arizona)
The No. 12 seed is prone for upsets in this tournament, and Utah State should be another pesky team that could eliminate the No. 5 Kansas State Wildcats from the field of 68.
It is a bit concerning that Kansas State is just a two point favorite coming into this contest.
Utah State makes the trip to the Big Dance for the third season in a row but has not had much success, as they have lost five straight first round games.
Senior Jacob Pullen is the main man for the Wildcats, and he averages 19 points a game. The problem with the Wildcats is it’s hard to predict what they will do on a nightly basis. This is the same team that beat Kansas and Texas, yet lost to Colorado three times on the season. Junior Brockeith Pane will have the task of trying to defend Pullen and keep the Wildcats at bay.
The upsets seem to keep coming in the first round, as Utah State is very capable of knocking off the Wildcats.
The Aggies are deep and experienced and have five seniors and two juniors that make up their top seven scoring unit. They are patient with the rock and they are stable on defense allowing the opposition to shoot just 38 percent. They boast not one, but two defensive players of the year on this team and are ready to break the first round jinx.
The Aggies are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games as an underdog and 14-6 against the spread in their last 20 neutral site games.
Pullen cannot do it all by himself, and that will be the weakness of this Wildcats squad. If you have Kansas State going deep into your bracket, think again, because your bracket just got busted.
March Madness Pick: UPSET ALERT Utah State (+2)
No. 15 Akron vs. No. 2 Notre Dame
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No. 15 Akron vs. No. 2 Notre Dame
At Chicago (Illinois)
The Fighting Irish flopped in the Big East tournament or they would have possibly grabbed a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. They are listed as 13.5 point favorites over Akron in this first round meeting.
Ben Hansbrough is the star on this Irish team that can steal the spotlight in this tournament if they advance deep into the later rounds. Notre Dame has their eyes wide open for this meeting against Akron since they were booted from the tournament by Old Dominion in the first round last year.
The Fighting Irish will have the luxury of basically playing a home game and going up against an Akron team that is playing well above their skill level. Akron was a surprise winner of the MAC Tournament as they were not as talented as some of the other teams in the league.
The Irish have five starters averaging 9.7 points or more and they are all deadly from beyond the three point arc.
The Fighting Irish are 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 games as a favorite and 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 neutral site games.
This game should not even be close and Notre Dame should cover the big number against Akron.
March Madness Pick: Notre Dame (-13.5)
No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 7 Texas A&M
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No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 7 Texas A&M
At Chicago (Illinois)
The Florida State Seminoles face off against the Texas A&M Aggies in an interesting middle seed match in Chicago.
The latest college basketball odds have Florida State listed as slim one point favorite sin this battle.
Florida State has an alumni chapter in Chicago which could help sway the crowd in the Seminoles favor for this opening game. While both the Aggies and the Seminoles take pride in playing solid defense the size advantage goes to the Seminoles.
The Aggies top two scorers are forwards Nathan Walkup and Khris Middleton who come in at 6-7, and the Seminoles have a variety of players with a significant height advantage that can guard either one of them.
These teams have common opponents in Boston College and Baylor. The Aggies lost to both squads while the Seminoles beat both teams. Florida State is questionable on offense, but if they can get some shots to fall this game could easily turn into a blowout as the Seminoles advance.
March Madness Pick: Florida State (-1)
No. 16 Boston University vs. No. 1 Kansas
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No. 16 Boston University vs. No. 1 Kansas
At Tulsa (Oklahoma)
If there is one standard in the unpredictable NCAA Tournament, it’s that a No. 16 seed does not beat a No. 1 seed. That will not change when Boston University takes on the Kansas Jayhawks in the first round.
Kansas is the biggest favorite in round one of the tournament as they are laying 22.5 points to Boston University.
John Holland is the America East Player of the Year and the only threat on Boston University. He will get his points in this big game, but don’t expect any miracles. It will be even worse for the Terriers who lost forward Jake O’Brien for the year to a foot injury and that will leave no one to compliment Holland.
Marcus and Markieff Morris should dominate the BU defense and Kansas will win this game easily, but the only fear is they look right past this game and let the Terriers sneak in with a back door cover.
March Madness Pick: Kansas (-22.5)
No. 14 St. Peters vs. No. 3 Purdue
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No. 14 St. Peters vs. No. 3 Purdue
At Chicago (Illinois)
At first glance, this looks like an easy victory for Purdue, but look again.
Purdue is obviously the favorite and they are listed as 14 point favorites in this game, but St. Peters is no pushover. No. 14 seeds are 16-88 all-time against No. 3, so the upset has happened in the past.
Wesley Jenkins leads the Peacocks in scoring at 12.8 points per game and is just one of the many players that are using disrespect as motivation to win this ballgame. This team is filled with seniors that will be up to the pressure and they have four players that average in double figures on a nightly basis.
The Peacocks are 32-13-1 against the spread in their last 46 games as an underdog and Purdue is 1-4 against the spread in the last five games on a neutral court.
Purdue has JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, who will provide an inside-outside punch for the Boilermakers. Purdue may get the win, but it’s going to be closer than the experts think.
March Madness Pick: St. Peters (+14)
No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 8 UNLV
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No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 8 UNLV
At Tulsa (Oklahoma)
It’s a Big Ten versus Mountain West battle in the first round as Illinois will play against UNLV. The latest March Madness odds have UNLV as slight two point favorites in this game.
The storyline for this game is UNLV coach Lon Kruger getting a chance to play against his former school. Krueger was the coach of Illinois when they made three straight trips to the post season, but this time around he is hoping for Illinois to get elected in the first round.
As much as UNLV would love to spring the upset, Illinois is the better team and catching them as an underdog is a gift.
Illini frontcourt players Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale both average in double figures in scoring and will be impossible to guard for UNLV. Demetri McCamey runs the point and will be guarded by Oscar Bellfield who will attempt to gain the electric guard.
Illinois biggest problem is being consistent throughout the entire game. If they can stay consistent they have the horses to defeat UNLV, but if they get off to an erratic start they could allow UNLV to hang around in this contest.
Quintrell Thomas has been a strong player for UNLV of late, but he will not be enough for UNLV to advance.
March Madness Pick: UPSET SPECIAL Illinois (+2)
No. 13 Oakland vs. No. 4 Texas
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No. 13 Oakland vs. No. 4 Texas
At Tulsa (Oklahoma)
The latest odds for this game have the Texas Longhorns labeled as 9.5 point favorites against a very talented Oakland team. This point spread was enough to raise some eyebrows and get some people on the Oakland bandwagon.
Texas has to feel a bit disrespected coming into this tournament. They were once in the running for a No. 1 seed in the brackets but after a sluggish end to the regular season they were dropped to a four seed. Now they have to prove that they can advance in this tournament and make some people eat their words.
Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson need to have a big game down low for the Longhorns. This will open up the outside game of Jordan Hamilton and allow him some open looks. Hamilton can force shots if the offense is struggling so opening the game up down low will prevent this type of trap.
The Longhorns will have to play defense down low on Keith who averages a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds per game. Oakland is a team that should not be taken too lightly but the Longhorns are focused and ready to make a statement in this game.
March Madness Pick: Texas (-9.5)
No. 12 Memphis vs. No. 5 Arizona
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No. 12 Memphis vs. No. 5 Arizona
At Tulsa (Oklahoma)
The last of the 12/5 matchups closes out the week when the Arizona Wildcats battle with the surprising Memphis Tigers.
The Wildcats are listed as 5.5 point favorites to win this game over Memphis.
Memphis is a young and inconsistent team that seems to struggle at times, but they pulled it together to win the Conference USA tournament and get an automatic invite to the NCAA Tournament. Will Barton is a talented player that leads the Tigers in points and rebounds and will be a force for this team, while Joe Jackson is a threat off the pine. This team will have to play above their heads when they face off against an angry Arizona team.
The Wildcats are off a terrible loss in the Pac-10 tournament at the buzzer. They lost a game that they had in hand and will look to take their frustrations out on Memphis. Derrick Williams is the big man down low for the Wildcats and was named Pac-10 player of the year. Williams is an NBA type of player with skills that are hard to find in a young man at the college level.
The Tigers will have no answer for Williams or the rest of the Wildcats and will be ushered out of the tournament.
March Madness Pick: Arizona (-5.5)
No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Michigan
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No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Michigan
At Charlotte (North Carolina)
The Michigan Wolverines take on the Tennessee Volunteers in what should be a closely contested battle between two talented teams.
The latest March Madness odds have the Volunteers listed as 1.5 point favorites in this game.
The Volunteers have the talent to win this game, but seem to be lacking in areas such as consistency and game management. The Volunteers started off the year on fire with some big wins against tournament teams but struggled down the stretch winning just 12 of the last 26 games.
Scotty Hopson and freshman Tobias Harris provide a solid 1-2 punch for the Vols and are responsible for the bulk of the scoring load. If the Vols could get any help for those two players they would be a deadly out in the field of 68. The Vols have depth and should control the glass but that may not matter to Michigan.
The Wolverines are all about the 3 point shot. Tim Hardaway Jr. has hoisted the most for the Maize and Blue and will be active in this game. His defense may be the deciding factor as he will play opposite Hopson on the floor.
Michigan can pull off the upset in this game. Darius Morris is a silky smooth ball handler that can drive the lanes and dish for the open look. The Wolverines boast five players that shoot between 36 and 38 percent from behind the arc and this will put the Vols into a hole early.
Michigan will get the win and advance to the next round by narrowly beating out the Vols.
March Madness Pick: UPSET SPECIAL Michigan (+1.5)
No. 16 Hampton vs. No. 1 Duke
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No. 16 Hampton vs. No. 1 Duke
At Charlotte (North Carolina)
After winning the ACC Championship and tearing apart North Carolina in the process, the Blue Devils were awarded with a No. 1 seed and a trip to Charlotte where they will get home court advantage against No. 16 Hampton.
Duke is listed as 22 point favorites for this opening round tip-off.
Duke enters this game as defending champions and a 12-game winning streak in postseason tournament play. They are set in every position on the floor and should use this game as a tune up for the rest of the tournament.
The Hampton Pirates do have some things to be proud of. They have three double digit scorers and beat Boston University, another team in the field of 68. They led the MEAC in scoring defense, field-goal percentage allowed and 3-point percentage allowed. They have depth and experience and will not be intimidated by facing Duke.
With that being said they can keep this game close, but Duke will not be knocked out of the tournament. Take the points but don’t look for the upset.
March Madness pick: Hampton (+22)
No. 9 Villanova vs. No. 8 George Mason
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No. 9 Villanova vs. No. 8 George Mason
At Cleveland (Ohio)
A former Cinderella in George Mason takes on a Big East team that is crawling to the tournament in the Villanova Wildcats.
Villanova is having such a tough time heading into this big game that George mason were tagged as one point favorites. The Wildcats started the year 16-1 and then swooned to end the season as losers of its last five games and 10 of its last 15. There is a few things that should be noted about the losses to end the year.
Ten of those losses were to ranked opponents and Villanova played the 38th toughest schedule in the country. Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes were rarely healthy enough to play together and both will be ready for the tournament.
George Mason will counter with Cam Long and Ryan Pearson. Both can penetrate and shoot the three ball.
If forward Mouphtaou Yarou is healthy for this game it could make all the difference. It would give Villanova an inside presence and open up the outside for three point shooting. The Wildacts were 6th in the Big east in rebounding and can hit free throws late in the game to secure the victory.
Everyone in the country is counting out Villanova, which makes them dangerous in this game against George mason.
March Madness Pick: UPSET ALERT Villanova (+1)
No. 15 Long Island vs. No. 2 North Carolina
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No. 15 Long Island vs. No. 2 North Carolina
At Charlotte (North Carolina)
Long Island was thrilled to make it to the NCAA Tournament as a 15 seed, but they could not have been happy with their opponent. No. 2 North Carolina will enter this tournament angry after getting hammered by rival Duke in the ACC Championship game and they will have home court advantage.
The latest odds for the tournament have North Carolina listed as a 17.5 favorite for this opening round game.
The Tar Heels have played in the tournament in six of the last seven years, but only have two active players on the roster that have experience dancing in March. Freshman Kendall Marshall is a young point guard that is prone to turning over the ball and the Heels were prone to starting slow down the stretch.
That same type of start could breathe life into Long Island and give them hope to fight through the entire game. The Blackbirds have won 21 of 21 and don’t play defense but can put up some big numbers on the scoreboard. Forward Julian Boyd is the best player on the team and they also have a dynamic duo at guard with C.J. Garner and Jason Brickman.
The Blackbirds like to shoot the three and averaged over 80 points per game. I don’t expect the Blackbirds to win, but if the threes are falling and the Heels get off to a slow start, then they may keep this game under double digits.
March Madness Pick: Long Island (+17.5)
No. 11 Marquette at No. 6 Xavier
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No. 11 Marquette at No. 6 Xavier
At Cleveland (Ohio)
The game between No. 6 Xavier and No. 11 Marquette should be one of the more closely contested games of the first round. In fact the latest odds reflect that as Xavier is a two point favorite heading into this game.
Xavier has plenty of positive history in this tournament as they have reached the Sweet Sixteen in the last three tournaments, but with the turnover in college basketball many of those players have departed. Xavier is powerful at the guard position with Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons running the show and penetrating to create open lanes and shots for fellow teammates. When fouled they can both knock down free throws and they can also drain the 3-ball.
Post up players Kenny Frease and Jamel McLean work well down low when the guards draw extra attention.
Marquette has struggled to stop the three ball as evident in their latest outing against Louisville. They allowed 13 against Louisville and this will force them to play a stronger emphasis on the guards of Xavier leaving the low post open and vulnerable.
Marquette has some talent but struggles on the road and on the boards. They very easily could win this game and mess up my bracket, but I don’t think it will happen. Xavier will control the boards and eliminate Marquette.
March Madness Pick: Xavier (-2)
No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 7 Washington
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No. 10 Georgia vs. No. 7 Washington
At Charlotte (North Carolina)
This game is very interesting as Red-Hot Washington jumps into the brackets off a buzzer beater win and will face Georgia who was thought to be a bubble team, yet grabbed a ten seed when the bracket was announced.
Washington enters this game as 5.5 point favorites against the Bulldogs.
Isaiah Thomas leads the point for the Huskies and was responsible for the tournament winner in the championship game. Gerald Robinson will provide a challenge for Thomas as he has a quickness that will allow him to keep up with Thomas throughout the game. The Huskies thrive off physical defense that leads to transition defense and points on the other end. This could be their downfall as the referees tend to call a tighter game in the tournament and this will put the Bulldogs on the line more often.
Trey Thompkins powers the bulldogs and has the edge in this game due to his quickness and his athletic ability. Washington will not have an answer for him down low as he can score, rebound, and block shots.
Georgia is playing on borrowed time and with the disrespected moniker and that will be enough for them to shock Washington and win in the first round.
March Madness Pick: UPSET ALERT Georgia (+5.5)
No. 14 Indiana State vs. No 2 Syracuse
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No. 14 Indiana State vs. No 2 Syracuse
At Cleveland (Ohio)
Rounding out the first round is the game between the No. 2 Syracuse Orangemen and the No. 14 Indiana State Sycamores.
Syracuse is 11.5 point favorites coming into this game and is poised to make a run through the brackets, but the Sycamores will not be a push over.
Jim Boeheim is one of the best coaches in the country and the zone defense is his benchmark that has been hard to crack in the past. Boeheim has to keep his guards in check and prevent them from launching reckless three’s and getting in a rut. This has happened on a few occasions this year and he has been forced to bench players and adjust the lineups.
Indiana State has won five games in a row coming into this battle and is led by point guard Jake Odum. He leads this team on the floor, but is a freshman and will have to avoid being blinded by the spotlight of the big dance. He has the height at 6-4 to pass over the zone and this team has had a week to prepare for this game.
The sycamores have depth on the team and play solid defense while draining three pointers. They have 11 players that they feel safe on playing at any time and will look to deflect passes on defense and confuse ad pester the Syracuse offense. Indiana State will be able to keep this game close and they have a chance of upsetting the Orange.
Although I am reluctant to move them past Syracuse in the brackets it would not surprise me in the slightest.
March Madness Pick: Indiana State (+11.5)
The "First Four"
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The “First Four”
Since lines have not been posted on the play-in games I did not make selections, so here is a best guess at a line and a selection for those games.
Pittsburgh vs. UNC Asheville
Estimated Line: Pittsburgh -12
UNC Asheville is scrappy, and they will play close early, but are no match for Pittsburgh.
Prediction: Panthers by 15
Georgetown vs. USC
Estimated Line: Georgetown - 5
USC will play this one close, but they should not have made the tournament and since the Hoyas will be healthy again, they will advance.
Prediction: Georgetown by 9
Ohio State vs. Anyone
Estimated Line: Ohio State -20
Does this prediction really even matter? Ohio State should demolish whomever they play in this round.
Prediction: Ohio State by 21
UAB vs. West Virginia
Estimated Line: West Virginia by 4
This game is the most interesting out of the four games that will be played. Although I predicted UAB to advance, either team could mean big trouble for West Virginia. No upset here, but it will be closer than people expect.
Prediction: West Virginia by 2
March Madness is finally here and as you’re filling out your March Madness brackets remember to slate a few upsets in the first round, but keep the favorites in there to bring home the national Championship.
This year there is plenty of parody in college basketball which could make this the best tournament yet.
Matt Regaw is a B/R Featured Columnist and the founder of BookieBlitz.com, your one-stop shop for sports articles, previews and predictions. Feel free to contact Matt at mregaw@gmail.com.
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