March Madness 2011 Predictions: 50 Bold Predictions for the 2011 NCAA Tournament
Here it is. Fifty more things you need to know about March Madness. It is a quick-hitter list of things that will absolutely sometimes almost always might happen.
Some have to do with specific games, others with overall prospects for specific teams or players and some are just lighthearted general observations.
1. Duke Will Not Win the National Championship
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Sorry to the diehard Devils fans, but they aren't going to repeat as national champions.
I'm actually impressed with what they have done without Kyrie Irving, but their play in the post is almost nonexistent some games.
That said, the last five times Duke and UNC have played in the conference final, the winner has made the Final Four.
2. Villanova Will Not Make It out of the First Weekend
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A top-10 team in the preseason, the Wildcats are fortunate to be attending the prom after six straight losses to finish the season.
If they make it past George Mason, the Ohio State Buckeyes await.
3. Jimmer Will Have to Go Home During the First Weekend
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Jimmer goes off for 52 against New Mexico and 30 against San Diego State to show what he can do. But they miss Brandon Davies too much and it showed against the Aztecs.
BYU received a good seed (3) but will have a tough second-round game against either St. John's or Gonzaga.
4. Big Ten WIll Not Have a Good Showing
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The so-called soft bubble benefited some teams in here.
Illinois, Michigan State and Penn State are inconsistent. Michigan is inexperienced. Wisconsin won't play at home. After losses to Iowa and Michigan State, Purdue suddenly looks vulnerable, though they were given a three seed and could advance to the Elite Eight.
Ohio State will be the only other team with multiple wins.
5. Florida Will Get to the Second Weekend This Year
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The good seeding will help Florida get to the Sweet 16 and allow them the time to prepare for whomever they will face.
They have pretty good inside/outside balance and a top swingman in Chandler Parsons. An Elite Eight appearance would be something Gator fans could sink their teeth into.
6. This Will Be Bruce Pearl's Last Tournament with Tennessee
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Despite his popularity, Pearl's actions have hurt the program and the NCAA might not be finished with him yet.
They suspended Perry Jones because his mom took $1,000 (which she repaid). They suspend a football player from Oklahoma State for the season because he lied. Shouldn't Pearl's penalty be as harsh?
7. Frank Martin Will Go Ballistic at Least Once While the Cameras Are on Him
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If there was a line on this, and I'm sure there is somewhere, I'd be cashing, but at low odds.
8. Kansas Will Avoid a Second-Round Surprise This Year
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Lesson learned. The Jayhawks will be more than prepared for UNLV or Illinois in the second round and won't be caught again.
9. Pitt Will Play in the Elite Eight
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Ashton Gibbs will lead the Panthers to a place that they have been before—the Elite Eight.
Only this year, they will advance beyond.
10. Ohio State Will Not Win the National Championship
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As good as they have been, they will come up just short in the tournament.
Their bracket is favorable, though, and they should win at least four games.
11. Xavier's Streak of Three Consecutive Sweet 16s Will End
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You have to admire the program and the way they continue to be at the top of a good conference. It might be a mistake to underestimate them, but the Musketeers have managed to have a great season without much of a bench, which they will need on the first weekend.
Marquette or Syracuse will take them out.
12. Memphis Will Struggle in Their Tournament Game
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That's right: game, not plural—this year. The Tigers made a nice run in their league tournament but need a little more seasoning before they can make a deep run in the NCAA tournament.
Their first-round matchup against Arizona and Derrick Williams is a tough one.
13. Vanderbilt Will Be Upset in the First Round
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This is a 50/50 proposition. It seems to happen every other season, but I'm going with two years in a row.
A-10 champs Richmond will give them everything they can handle.
14. There Will Be No Butler or George Mason This Year
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Yes, okay, they are both in the tournament. But there will be no Cinderella this year. There are too many solid teams at the top that one of these teams would have to maneuver through, and I can't see it happening.
15. Harrison Barnes Will Have a Breakout Postseason
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After his 40-point performance against Clemson, Barnes followed it up with a good, not great, game against Duke.
The early game against Long Island will help Barnes erase any jitters.
16. Kemba Walker Will Do Something Crazy
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Buzzer-beater, 40-foot runner, ankle-breakers. Something.
17. Bob Huggins Will Throw His Arms Out in Dismay Many Times
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Huggins leads the league in arm-throwing-out gestures, directed either at the refs (usually) or his players (sometimes).
18. Derek Williams Will Light Memphis Up in the First Round
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Williams has been a revelation for the Wildcats. This might be his last couple of games in college, so take a look.
A young Memphis team will be ripe for Williams to exploit.
19. Ben Howland Will Use All of His Timeouts in the First Half of the First Game
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Okay, that's a little ridiculous. There will be at least 10 minutes gone in the second half before he's out.
In a matchup of two good coaches, Izzo's group will prevail.
20. Kentucky Will Not Lose in the First Weekend
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Had to alter this one a bit after seeing their draw.
I thought the lack of depth might hurt them, but they should be able to handle Princeton and a potential rematch of last year's Elite Eight game with West Virginia.
21. Belmont Bruins Will Scare the Bejeebers out of Wisconsin (And Win)
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I don't know what bejeebers are but they sound bad. The Bruins are 30-4, have won 21 of their last 22 games and have lost only once since December 23rd. Doesn't matter where you play, that's pretty impressive.
Last year (also seeded fourth), the Badgers were taken to the wire by Wofford. This year, Belmont gets to the wire first.
22. Two 12 Seeds Will Win in the Opening Round
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Again, almost like a 50/50 proposition. It always seems to happen. Don't even care who is playing.
23. Syracuse Will Look Great on the First Weekend
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As usual, the Orange will look great for the first two rounds. As usual, they will meet their match in the Sweet 16.
Again.
24. San Diego State Will Reach the Elite Eight
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They really haven't done much wrong this year, aside from two losses to rival BYU.
But have they done much, period?
Other teams have played much tougher schedules and it is easy to say they would have more losses if they played in the Big East. But they would also have some more quality wins.
25. Gus Johnson Will Freak at the End of a Game
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Best end-of-the-game announcer. Period.
I want him doing that game where overtime or a buzzer-beater decides it.
26. Washington Huskies Will Play in the Most Exciting Game of the First Weekend
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Not sure if they will win or lose it, but the Huskies have a knack for putting on a show.
The fact that they are playing Georgia, who has a habit of playing close games, should make this very interesting. With a possible date with North Carolina looming, this prediction is pretty solid.
Any defense from Washington and they could be very dangerous.
27. Indiana State Will Not Re-Create the College Version of "Hoosiers"
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Quick, name three players on the Sycamores.
Hint: The guy above has graduated.
28. Wisconsin Loses in the First Round
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Wisconsin will be upset this year by Belmont.
I would not have said this had I not seen them score 33 points against Penn State.
29. Georgetown Will Be Upset in the First Round
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Without Chris Wright, the Hoyas have been in shambles.
If he comes back, you can rescind this, but his leadership is missed.
Possible opponents USC and VCU are both very good teams. USC is a bad matchup for the Hoyas without Wright.
30. Notre Dame Will Lose in the Sweet 16
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As much as I like the Irish, they aren't deep enough to withstand any type of foul trouble, especially to interior players such as Tyrone Nash.
A great season ends on the second weekend against Purdue.
31. Pitt Will Not Win the National Championship
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More than any other Pitt team, this one seems built for a long run in the NCAA tournament.
Depth at all positions with size and shooting, the Panthers have it all to make the Final Four.
Like three others, though, they will come up just short.
32. Bruce Pearl Will Wear an Orange Sport Coat
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This is a pretty easy one.
Pearl dresses as loudly as he speaks, so expect the bright jacket come tourney time.
33. Wofford Terriers Will Play Brigham Young Tough
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The bulk of this team are returnees from the team that took Wisconsin down to the wire in the first round of the tournament last year.
They scuffled a bit earlier this year, but defeated a decent Charleston team to win the Southern Conference title.
34. Terence Jones Will Demand the Ball on 75 Percent of Kentucky's Possessions
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Jones has had a habit of barking this season, although he has matured as the year has progressed.
When the pressure is on, though, who knows what will happen.
Coach Calipari can draw on last season's pleasantries with DeMarcus Cousins and realize with the talent he recruits, he's bound to have at least one whiner every year.
35. Steve Lavin Will Say Something That a Sappy Announcer Would Say
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Lavin can't escape his role as a color commentator.
During a postgame interview he will use a phrase or multiple phrases, that no one can really comprehend or at the very least makes them wince.
"Sharing the sugar" is my personal wince-inducing phrase.
36. "One Shining Moment" Will Be Featured at the End of the Tournament
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Is it time for a new theme song?
Like the video, but it needs a new tune.
37. There Will Be at Least Three First-Round Buzzer-Beaters
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This is a staple of first-round action, and this year I have to include the opening round games as well.
Most likely, it will happen in games involving the four, five or six seeds, but it is not limited to those games.
38. Foul Shooting Will Cost Teams at Least Five Games
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This also happens every year, sometimes in the most critical of games.
So many teams have poor foul shooting statistics and it always comes back to bite them. Maybe not at the end of a game, but going 14-26 will cost some teams.
39. Dayton's "First Four" Round Will Be a Huge Success
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College basketball in Ohio, specifically Dayton, is crazy.
Not only will they be great hosts, the games will be pretty good, too. It will be interesting to see how the "First Four" teams respond within the new format.
40. Dick Vitale, Wherever He Surfaces, Will Be Annoying
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I like and admire the man for his efforts to bring awareness and funding to cancer research. There is no way I could not respect him.
But his days as a color commentator should be numbered. His analysis about the actual games is almost nonexistent.
41. Washington Will Beat Georgia in the First Round
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It appears Georgie wasn't even on the bubble.
Which is good news for the Huskies.
The Bulldogs will likely lead at the beginning of the game, before relenting and losing to Isaiah Thomas, Matthew Bryan-Amaning and company. It has been a Georgia trend against good teams for much of the year.
42. Some Team Will Cry Foul About the At-Large Selections
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It was good to see teams like VCU, George Mason and USC rewarded for playing in good conferences and playing good non-conference schedules.
Some teams will complain. For instance, Seth Greenberg will lobby once again for a recount, but the bottom line is they didn't do enough.
43. Gonzaga Will Make the Sweet 16
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Yes I'm a fan, but they couldn't have drawn much better.
D.J. Kennedy is out for St. John's, and BYU, a potential second-round opponent, has lost a key piece to their team as well.
It will be a huge accomplishment for a team that has scuffled at times this year.
44. Talk of Expanding the Field Will Resurface Quickly
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The exclusion of teams like Colorado and Alabama will have to make the committee re-think their evaluation criteria.
Colorado beat Kansas State three times and had a win over Texas as well. Alabama swept their two games with Georgia, which made the tournament with apparent ease as a 10 seed.
There are many difficult decisions to make, I know, but these two omissions are puzzling.
45. Jim Nance Will Be Sickeningly Nostalgic During the Final Four
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Nance has carte blanche to call Final Four games for some perplexing reason.
He will wax on during breaks in the most important games of the year to talk softly about past winners, MOP's, etc.
He looks and sounds very sincere. He is a very sweet man.
46. Old Dominion Will Not Beat Pitt
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I like the Monarchs and think they have a very good team. But contrary to Seth Davis' opinion, they won't beat Pitt.
In fact, their first-round game with Butler may stop them in their tracks.
47. Again, No One Will Miss Billy Packer
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Will they?
48. Kansas, Ohio State, Pitt and Duke Will Play in the Final Four
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Yeah, okay, the top seeds.
They seem to have been the most consistent teams this year. Although it wouldn't surprise me if Notre Dame, Kentucky, Florida, UConn, North Carolina, Texas, Syracuse, Louisville or San Diego State get there either.
That kind of year.
49. Kansas and Ohio State Will Play in the Final
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Although it wouldn't surprise me if...yeah, already said that.
50. Kansas Will Win the National Championship
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Top to bottom, I think they are the best team, with the best depth. Their frontcourt is almost unstoppable and they have a number of guards that can play a number of roles.
Tyshawn Taylor seems to have come out of a prolonged slump at just the right time.
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