NCAA Bracket 2011 Predictions: 9 Reasons Why BYU Could Still Reach Final Four
After Brandon Davies was dismissed from the BYU basketball team, most thought that all hope was lost. The night following Davies' dismissal was a dismal performance by the Cougars, as they were routed by New Mexico.
In the games since New Mexico embarrassed BYU in Provo, BYU has given hope to the Cougar faithful. While it's a long road to Houston, there is still reason to believe that BYU can get there.
Brandon Davies
1 of 9
The reason that BYU's Final Four hopes were derailed is one of the reasons that they are as high as ever in Provo.
Despite popular opinion, Davies was not kicked off the team or out of school. He was suspended, but he is still on the team.
The first game after the suspension was issued, Davies was not on the bench with the team. It was obvious that BYU missed him and his influence both on and off the court.
"He's a good friend, he's like a brother to me," Charles Abouo said of Davies, "Our thoughts and prayers are with him. We're reaching out, trying to help him get through this."
While he still can't play on the court, having their "brother" back on the bench with them has helped re-energize BYU. He can and will still play a big role in the rest of BYU's season.
Charles Abouo
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In four games since Davies' suspension, Charles Abouo has average 12.5 points and 6.25 rebounds. He has essentially made up the same statistics that BYU lost with Davies.
Abouo obviously isn't as big as Davies, but he is quicker, a better ball-handler and the most athletic player on the team. He can't make up for the height lost, but Abouo has played exceptionally well. His defense on the perimeter and ability to get to the basket off the dribble has helped BYU make up for Davies.
Of late, Abouo has also found his shooting stroke, giving BYU another three-point threat that can also get to the basket. That makes Abouo a tough matchup for opponents. He will have to have an exceptional tournament for BYU to advance in the tournament.
Experience
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The NCAA tournament is the biggest stage in all of college basketball, obviously. Some can crack under the pressure because of the magnitude of playing on such a big stage. BYU should not have that problem this year.
Jimmer Fredette and Jackson Emery make up on of the best backcourts in the country. These two seniors have both been on this stage before and are don't want their careers to end.
The Mountain West Conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year simply know how to win. Fredette and Emery are one and two in all-time wins at BYU. Their backcourt leadership could be enough to propel the Cougars deep into the tournament.
Only freshman Kyle Collinsworth hasn't played in the NCAA tournament for BYU.
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Jimmer Fredette
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Do I need to justify this?
Fredette is the frontrunner for the Naismith Trophy, given to the best player in Division I. Any time that he is on the floor he can have a big night. (Just ask Steve Alford.)
St. Joseph's had Jameer Nelson, Davidson had Steph Curry, Butler had Gordon Hayward and BYU has Jimmer Fredette. Teams have been able to ride superstars to the Final Four before and BYU hopes to be able to ride Fredette all the way to Houston.
Some will say that Fredette and BYU's struggles against San Diego State in the conference tournament were enough of sign that BYU can't continue its high level of play any longer. But beating a team three times in a row in a single season is really hard to do, especially a team as good as the Aztecs are.
I said in an article over a month ago that BYU would beat San Diego State in San Diego, but lose in the conference finals. They did just that =, and it's not surprising at all. BYU will bounce back and play well moving forward.
Especially Jimmer Fredette.
Wofford
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Who?
The Terriers have had a good season, but they will be completely overwhelmed by Fredette and BYU.
Like BYU, Wofford is small; its biggest players is listed at 6'9". BYU will be able to play to its strong suit and play an uptempo game.
I look for Noah Dahlman to have a good game for Wofford, however. He is the leading scorer for the Terriers and a decent post player. But in the end, Wofford will not be able to keep up with the backcourt of Emery and Fredette.
St. John's/Gonzaga
6 of 9
St. John's is a very good basketball team. The Red Storm have beat some top tier teams this season, but they will be playing in the tournament without leading rebounder D.J. Kennedy, and that is a huge benefit to BYU.
St. John's is a very dangerous team, but BYU has the athleticism to be able to run with them.
However, I think Gonzaga will be the matchup for BYU in the second round, not St. John's. A matchup with Gonzaga would feature two dynamic point guards in Fredette and Gonzaga guard David Stockton. (Yes, John's kid.)
Gonzaga doesn't have a great scorer on the team. I think that the Zags will pull off the big upset over a really good St. John's team, and then be overwhelmed by BYU's backcourt. Solid guard play and experience can carry a team deep in March, and that is just what BYU has in Emery and Fredette.
Florida
7 of 9
In the Sweet 16, BYU will likely face Florida. (Although Tom Izzo is always a scary matchup in March no matter how low of a seed Michigan State is.)
Florida is essentially the same team this year that it was last year. BYU, and mostly Fredette, was able to beat Florida in the tournament then.
BYU is better this year and so is Florida, but the Gators still won't have an answer for Fredette. If BYU can get even decent play from two other players behind Fredette, I expect the outcome to be the same if BYU squares up against Florida.
Pittsburgh
8 of 9
In all reality, this is where BYU's tournament run will come to an end. But hey, it's March and anything can happen.
Pitt is one of the elite teams in college basketball this year. The Panthers have great size in Gary McGhee and very good guards, lead by Ashton Gibbs. They are an all-around team and will likely be too much for BYU to handle.
That being said, Jimmer has the ability to take over any game. If he shoots well in the early going, it will open things up for Emery and Abouo.
The key for Emery and Abouo is their first few shots. Both of these players are streak shooters, and if the first few shots fall, they will likely catch fire and play well throughout the duration of the game.
It would be a very, very big upset and take incredible play on BYU's part, but it's not impossible.
The Madness That Is March
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As we all know, ANYTHING can happen in March. Cinderella teams come every year and how far they get depends a lot on luck.
If BYU can play well in the opening weekend, their momentum could carry them as far as Houston. After that, everything is possible. (If you don't believe me, go ask Gordon Hayward.)
BYU can look for teams to key on Fredette, who will be able to look for more whistles to go his way in the tournament. Superstars get more calls, but in the second half of the Mountain West Conference season, Fredette saw a many fewer whistles than before.
It will be exciting to watch and see how good this team can be. It will take great play and a little bit of luck, but it's not out of the realm of possibility for BYU to continue their magical season.
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