NBA Playoff Predictions: Breaking Down All the Potential Matchups
Is it April yet?
Unfortunately, there is still a month left before the NBA postseason is officially underway. The seeding is subject to change as teams are still jostling for playoff position, but there are still some very interesting potential playoff match-ups.
Let’s take some time to preview them.
WC First Round: No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies
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Scouting Report
Gregg Popovich changed his offensive philosophy this year. Instead of running the offense through Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, speed the tempo and attack other teams in transition. The result: San Antonio exceeded the basketball world’s expectations and appears poised to lock up the NBA’s best regular season record.
The Memphis Grizzlies could wind up being a terrible draw for the Western Conference top seeds. This is a tough, physical team that is gaining more confidence with each win. They have quietly moved within a game and a half of the fifth seed without their top perimeter threat, Rudy Gay.
Things to watch
The most interesting thing about this series is going to be the play of the Grizzlies’ frontcourt. They are bigger than the Spurs’ frontcourt players and could wear Duncan down. They also have perimeter defenders such as Shane Battier and Tony Allen to throw at Ginobili and Richard Jefferson.
Match-up to watch
Tim Duncan vs. Zach Randolph. Randolph’s name rarely comes up when discussing top big-men in the league. However, Randolph is currently having one of the quietest 20 point and 12 rebound seasons in NBA history. Randolph will have to be spectacular against the tough low-post defense of Duncan if the Grizzlies are to have a chance at winning this series.
Prediction
The Grizzlies physical frontcourt is capable of extending this series, but their lack of outside shooting will ultimately be their undoing.
Spurs in six games
WC First Round: No. 2 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 7 New Orleans Hornets
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Scouting report
Dirk Nowitzki is having an MVP-caliber season, and newcomer Tyson Chandler has brought energy on the defensive end.
As for the New Orleans Hornets, Monty Williams has coached this team to play above everyone’s preseason predictions, which was missing the playoffs. The Hornets prefer to cause turnovers with Chris Paul and Trevor Ariza leading the way. This has been a staple of their sixth-ranked defense.
Things to watch
The Mavericks have now lost eight straight games in New Orleans. Now they won’t have to win there in the series, but Dallas doesn’t want to play more games than they have to.
Match-up to watch
Jason Kidd vs. Chris Paul. These two players are the court generals for their respective teams. Paul and Kidd certainly have a history with one another dating back to the 2008 Western Conference Quarterfinals series when Paul claimed that Kidd couldn’t guard him.
Prediction
The Mavericks are the deeper team from top to bottom.
Mavericks in six games
WC First Round: No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 Portland Trail Blazers
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Scouting report
After a lackluster first half of the season, the Lakers appear to be refocused, winning eight straight games since the All-Star break. Their defense has only allowed 87 points per game during this streak. What makes the Lakers special is their size advantage over the opposition. When they decide to exploit it, they are almost impossible to beat.
The Blazers are having an interesting year so far. They have been plagued by injuries since the start of the season. Their star, Brandon Roy, appears to be getting healthy. They made the trade for Gerald Wallace and LaMarcus Aldridge has emerged as the primary option on offense for Portland. Now, this has become a team that could provide headaches for any higher playoff seed.
Match-up to watch
Kobe Bryant vs. Nicolas Batum. Nobody can stop Bryant, but players such as Batum have the tools to make him work for every field goal. Batum has the size and length to guard Kobe without any help.
Prediction
Andrew Bynum is the wild card in this series.
Lakers in six games
WC First Round: No. 4 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Denver Nuggets
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Scouting report
We have yet to see the Thunder at full strength as their recent acquisition Kendrick Perkins is still out with a knee injury. Perkins will uplift a Thunder team that has been disappointing on the defensive end to say the least—as opposed to last year.
Who needs Carmelo Anthony? That’s practically been the motto of the Denver Nuggets after they traded away their franchise player. They have now won five of their last seven games since the big trade. Now, George Karl has multiple players that he can throw at the opposition.
Things to watch
It will be interesting to see who the Nuggets will turn to in a close game. Will it be JR Smith? Nene? How about Aaron Afflalo?
As for the Thunder, we are all aware of the scoring prowess of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. However, who will be the third scorer? It will have to be James Harden.
Prediction
Oklahoma City possesses a newfound size advantage and a go-to guy in Durant when late game situations occur—two things that Denver doesn't possess.
Thunder in five games
EC First Round: No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Indiana Pacers
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Scouting report
The Celtics have dealt with plenty of injuries this year, but that hasn’t stopped them so far from having the top seed in the conference.
Despite losing four games in a row, the Pacers still have a one game lead for the final playoff spot. Darren Collison has given the Pacers a new dimension— an attacking point guard.
Match-up to watch
Danny Granger vs. Paul Pierce. If the Celtics don’t want to play more games than necessary, then they need to make it a priority to make Granger uncomfortable. Meanwhile, Pierce will have to make Granger work on the defensive end. Granger is strong, but does not move his feet very well.
Prediction
This will be the least competitive series of this year's postseason.
Celtics in four games
EC First Round: No. 2 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers
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Scouting report
Derrick Rose put the Bulls on his shoulders, and he is a big reason why this team has exceeded preseason expectations. The other reason? The Bulls’ top-ranked defense. Tom Thibodeau single-handedly gave this team a defensive foundation to build on.
The Sixers are a more dangerous first-round opponent. First of all, head coach Doug Collins has this team playing with a sense of urgency. Second, this team has that type of speed, length and athleticism to clog the interior, and turnovers fuel their transition game.
Things to watch
As I said previously, Philadelphia loves to run off of turnovers. If Chicago wants to make quick work of this team, then they have to take care of the ball.
Match-up to watch
Andre Igoudala vs. Luol Deng. Both of these players are the glue guys for their respective teams. Deng will have a tougher time keeping Igoudala out of the paint.
Prediction
Too much Derrick Rose.
Bulls in five games
EC First Round: No. 3 Miami Heat vs. No. 6 New York Knicks
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Scouting Report
The Miami Heat, built around the athleticism of LeBron James, force turnovers and score in transition. They do this with relative ease because they feature the most frightening duo in the open-court, James and Dwayne Wade.
The Knicks’ offense changed recently with the addition of Carmelo Anthony. Now, instead of ball movement leading to open three-pointers, New York runs more isolations for Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire.
Things to watch
There is a good chance that this will end up being a terrible draw for the Heat. The Knicks are no ordinary number six seed with Anthony and Stoudemire running the show. Now the only question is, which Knicks team will show up on defense?
Match-up to watch
Chauncey Billups vs. the Heat point guard rotation. If the Knicks go on to win the series, it will be because Billups dominated the point guard match-up. Miami still does not have their point guard situation resolved. Even then, Billups has a decisive strength advantage over all of them.
Prediction
The Knicks will give the Heat problems. However, Wade and James do just enough for the Heat to advance.
Heat in six games
EC First Round: No. 4 Orlando Magic vs. No. 5 Atlanta Hawks
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Scouting Report
Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas give Orlando more of an offensive identity. However, their defensive game plan still remains the same: funnel opposing perimeter players into shot-blocker Dwight Howard.
The Hawks' biggest strength is their pick-and-roll defense. Their big men's collective foot speed can rival that of most opposing perimeter players’.
Things to watch
How do the Hawks plan to contain Dwight Howard? In last year’s series, he annihilated them.
Match-up to watch
Jameer Nelson vs. Kirk Hinrich. Atlanta made the deal for Hinrich because they felt the defense at the guard position was weak (looking at you Mike Bibby). Hinrich is a player who is a tough defender and quicker than he looks. He can definitely use his length to make things difficult for Nelson.
Prediction
Dwight Howard will bum rush the Hawks just like he did last year.
Magic in five games
Western Conference Semifinals: No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 4 Oklahoma City
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Scouting Report
The Spurs swept the season series with Oklahoma City. However, that was before the Thunder bolstered their frontcourt by adding Kendrick Perkins and Nazr Mohammed.
Things to watch
The pressure will be on the Thunder, not to just show up, but win the series. How will they respond?
Match-up to watch
Tim Duncan vs. Kendrick Perkins. The Thunder made the move for Perkins for a series like this. Now, he will be slated with the task of stopping Duncan. Perkins is a stout defender who can guard Duncan without any help.
Prediction
The Thunder’s lack of perimeter shooting and a reliable third scorer will be the difference.
Spurs in six games
Western Conference Semifinals: No. 2 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers
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Scouting Report
This will be the first time the Mavericks face Kobe Bryant and the Lakers in the Cuban Era. What a great match-up this will be. Both teams field tall frontcourts, length on the perimeter and MVP-caliber players.
Things to watch
The front-line of Bynum, Gasol, Odom and Artest lack athleticism, and those types of front-lines can allow the Mavs to excel much better defensively. The Lakers can't exploit Haywood, Nowitzki and Chandler on the perimeter, which works in the Mavs’ favor because it allows Haywood and Chandler to stay in the paint and protect the rim.
Match-up to watch
Shawn Marion vs. Kobe Bryant. Marion will be responsible for shadowing Bryant. He no longer has the foot speed from his younger days. However, he has the length to bother Bryant in stretches.
Prediction
On paper these teams appear to be evenly matched, but coaching will be the difference. This is where the Lakers hold the edge.
Lakers in seven games
Eastern Conference Semifinals: No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 4 Orlando Magic
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Scouting Report
A rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. Orlando is less of a conventional team with Turkoglu back in the lineup.
Things to watch
Nobody is happier about Perkins' departure to the Western Conference than Dwight Howard. The stout defense of Perkins made Howard's life difficult. It will be interesting to see how they guard Howard this time around. They no longer have the big men who can guard Howard one-on-one. It will certainly be defense by committee.
Match-up to watch
Kevin Garnett vs. Brandon Bass. Bass is too small to guard Garnett one-on-one. One might thing think that Doc Rivers will choose to exploit this match-up as much he can.
Prediction
Howard will put up big numbers, but Boston will pay extra attention to the Orlando shooters.
Boston in seven games
Eastern Conference Semifinals: No. 2 Chicago Bulls vs. No. 3 Miami Heat
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Scouting report
The Bulls swept the Heat in this year’s season series. The last two meetings have been decided by a combined five points. Thibodeau will provide the perfect antidote for LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, which is loading defenders up on one side of the ball. Then, collapse the paint if either one of them decides to drive.
Things to watch
One has to wonder if the Heat lost a little confidence against the Bulls after losing their last two meetings in such heartbreaking fashion. If the game is close, the Bulls have the advantage in this regard.
Match-up to watch
Chris Bosh vs. Carlos Boozer. The first thing that comes to mind in this match-up now is this. Bosh will have to do a better job, as Boozer has a strength advantage over him. Perhaps Bosh’s best defense will be attacking Boozer and making him work on the defensive end.
Prediction
Plain and simple, the Bulls know who they are and the Heat may not know who they are until it’s too late. The Bulls have their closer, Derrick Rose. Meanwhile, the Heat have no idea who gets the ball with the game on line.
Bulls in seven games
Western Conference Finals: No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 2 Los Angeles Lakers
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Scouting report
It is only fitting that these two teams’ paths cross once again, considering that these organizations have shared most of the titles of last decade.
Things to watch
That Lakers' size and length will give the Spurs worlds of problems. They have to counter by forcing turnovers and attacking in transition. Meanwhile, the Lakers have to focus on keeping the game in the half court to exploit their size advantage.
Match-up to watch
Ron Artest vs. Manu Ginobili. This will decide the series. Artest is most effective when guarding an opposing player in isolation plays. Ginobili is a player who is more reckless and likes to play on the move. To beat Artest, Ginobili will have to make him move his big body around multiple screens.
Prediction
When the Lakers choose to exploit their size advantage, they are almost unbeatable. Now, how often will they expose this advantage? Bryant almost shot the Lakers out of the series last year against the Celtics when he neglected to use his big men in the post.
The final factor that will tip the series in the Spurs’ favor is the long series the Lakers played with the Mavericks in the previous round. The Lakers will not have enough left in the tank for the Spurs.
Spurs in six games
Eastern Conference Finals: No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 Chicago Bulls
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Scouting report
It is not as sexy of a match-up as a Heat-Celtics conference finals. However, the Bulls and the Celtics didn’t disappoint in that epic seven-game showdown in 2009.
What to watch
Thibodeau left Boston and took all of his defensive schemes with him. It will be interesting to see Doc Rivers and Thibodeau outsmart each other. This series will be a defensive struggle.
Match-up to watch
Kevin Garnett vs. Joakim Noah. Thibodeau is most likely going to hide Carlos Boozer on the defensive end because they need his energy for offense. This means that Noah will be responsible for guarding Garnett. These are two players that don’t have much love for one another.
Prediction
The first team to score 80 points will win each game of this series. Both teams are solid defensively, but Boston has more scoring options.
Celtics in six games
NBA Finals: No. 1 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 1 Boston Celtics
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Scouting report
This is a match-up that most casual fans would hate to see. Now, if you’re a true fan of the game of basketball, this is an excellent match-up. Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan go head-to-head one last time, and both teams can play uptempo and can also grind the opposition into psychological wreckage.
Things to watch
Both teams field their own version of a big three. It will be interesting to see who has the advantage. DeJuan Blair and Glen Davis will be the X-Factors for their respective teams.
Match-up to watch
Kevin Garnett vs. Tim Duncan. These two will not guard each other early in the game to avoid foul trouble. Now, late in the game they will cover one another. Garnett loves to face up and use his length to shoot over defenders. Duncan combines patience and skill to outsmart his opponents.
Prediction
This will go either way because both will be evenly matched. Home-court will be the difference.
Spurs in seven games
