
March Madness 2011 Predictions: Predictions for All 32 First Round Games
March Madness is finally here!
In the next few days, literally millions of brackets will be filled out. Every single person that completes one will have the same dream: to be the first person to predict every game correctly.
To do so though, you have to get every single game in the first round right. That's a tough enough task in itself.
With more parity than ever before, this bracket is entirely unpredictable. But that's not going to stop us from trying to predict it.
Without further ado, read on for my predictions for every first-round game.
(Please note that the numbers in the parentheses of the titles are ratings from kenpom.com. If you don't know the site, check it out)
No. 1 Ohio State (1: Pomeroy Ranking) over No. 16 UTSA (219)/Alabama State (295)
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I'm expecting Texas-San Antonio to easily beat Alabama State, but then get absolutely mauled at the hands of the Buckeyes.
Ohio State is the top overall seed, and a No. 1 seed has never lost to a No. 16 seed in the history of March Madness.
That stat is not going to change here. Jared Sullinger and the rest of the Ohio State team is way too good for either of the two teams they could face.
Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 8 George Mason (26) over No. 9 Villanova (28)
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This should be one of the better games of the first round since both teams are just about even talent-wise and are a bit underrated.
George Mason closed the season with a loss to VCU in the CAA tournament, but that was on the heels of a 16-game winning streak.
Villanova on the other hand closed the season by losing five straight games, including a loss to South Florida in the opening round of the Big East tournament. The Wildcats also dropped 10 of their last 15 games.
Both teams are fairly balanced, but the Patriots should be able to use their leftover momentum to sneak past the banged-up Wildcats.
Prediction: George Mason Patriots
No. 5 West Virginia (21) over No. 12 UAB (56)/Clemson (24)
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After Clemson blows out UAB in the first round, it'll have a very tough matchup with the West Virginia Mountaineers.
Although the Tigers proved that they could hang with the big boys by pushing North Carolina to overtime in the ACC tournament, West Virginia is going to be too much to handle.
Clemson is a great defensive team but struggles on the offensive end of the court at times. West Virginia, on the other hand, won't have trouble scoring or stopping the Tigers.
Prediction: West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats (7) over No. 13 Princeton (87)
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In a piece I recently published called "March Madness 2011 Predictions: The Most Overrated and Underrated Teams," I wrote about the Kentucky Wildcats:
"This is probably the seeding that had me scratching my head more than any other.
"Just hours before Selection Sunday kicked off, the Kentucky Wildcats beat the Florida Gators quite handily, 70-54 to win the SEC Championship. Somehow, the Gators wound up with a No. 2 seed while the Wildcats were handed a No. 4 seed and a first-round date with No. 13 Princeton.
"That doesn't exactly seem fair.
"Kentucky struggled a bit on the road but still posted a 24-8 record in a difficult SEC East. Kenpom.com has the Wildcats as the No. 8 team in the country, and those rankings were put together before the SEC Championship.
"The freshman-laden team should make some noise in the tourney, especially now that it feels snubbed by the committee."
Princeton needed a buzzer-beater in an Ivy League playoff game to even make the tournament.
Enough said.
Prediction: Kentucky Wildcats
No. 6 Xavier (37) over No. 11 Marquette (33)
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In what should be another riveting matchup in the first round, the Xavier Musketeers will take on the Marquette Golden Eagles.
The teams appear to be very evenly matched and both possess offenses that are slightly better than their defenses. I'd expect quite a few points to be scored in this contest.
Xavier, though, appears to be the better team, largely because of Marquette's inconsistency during conference play. The Musketeers won 16 of their last 17 regular season games before losing to Dayton in their first game of the Atlantic 10 tournament.
The Golden Eagles though struggled to string together wins during conference play. Granted, playing in the Big East is a tough task, but losing by 25 points to Louisville in the last game they've played is not exactly a confidence booster.
Prediction: Xavier Musketeers
No. 3 Syracuse (11) over No. 14 Indiana State (109)
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Syracuse has players named Scoop and Fab. How can you pick against them?
The Orange also lost only seven games all year despite playing in the Big East. Indiana State managed to drop 13 contests even though they call the Missouri Valley Conference home.
Can you say 30-point win?
Prediction: Syracuse Orange
No. 10 Georgia (57) over No. 7 Washington (15)
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Going back to that same article, here's what I wrote about each of these two teams:
"Sticking with the SEC, it's time to move on to my school.
"Georgia, in my very biased opinion, absolutely deserved to make the field, but I felt as though they should be one of the last four teams in and forced to play in the opening round.
"Somehow the Bulldogs snuck into the tournament as a No. 10 seed, where they'll play the very underrated Washington Huskies in the first round.
"Georgia doesn't have a single bad loss on the résumé (unless you consider the two losses to Alabama bad losses), but the Bulldogs failed to post too many marquee wins.
"The team has loads of talent but also possesses the remarkable ability to collapse late in games. It kills me to say it, but Georgia is quite overrated based on its seeding..."
"Inconsistency has killed this team throughout the year, but don't let that stop you from considering the Washington Huskies a great team.
"Led by Isaiah Thomas, Justin Holiday and a very experienced batch of players, the Huskies have enough talent to play like a No. 3 seed.
"They proved that when they went on a run through the Pac-10 and eventually took home the title with an overtime nail-biter against Arizona. If they can keep that level of play up, a second-round upset against UNC could be possible.
"But then again, the bad Huskies could show up and blow a first-round game against Georgia.
"Despite the inconsistency, Washington should have gotten more credit than being saddled with a seven beside its name."
Now that said, if Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie play up to their talent levels, Georgia can play with anyone.
My head says Washington but my heart says Georgia. Here, heart trumps head.
Prediction: Georgia Bulldogs
No. 2 North Carolina (14) over No. 15 Long Island (121)
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This is one of those games where I'm going to spare you the trouble of doing a lot of reading.
North Carolina is a very good basketball team now that Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall are working well together.
Long Island is a tournament-caliber team, but doesn't have any shot at beating the Tar Heels.
Prediction: North Carolina Tar Heels
No. 1 Duke (2) over No. 16 Hampton (211)
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We've been over this before. No. 16 seeds do not beat No. 1 seeds.
This is not going to change here.
Prediction: Duke Blue Devils
No. 8 Michigan (40) over No. 9 Tennessee (55)
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Believe it or not, the Michigan Wolverines' seven-point loss to rival Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament may have actually given them confidence going into March Madness.
Michigan has overcome a six-game losing streak in the middle of the season and recovered to gain an at-large berth into the big dance.
Now they have to match up with Tennessee in the first round.
This game is tough to predict because you never know which Volunteers squad is going to show up. Sometimes they play like they're the best team in the country, and other times it seems as though they'd rather be doing something else.
Michigan is a superior team and should be able to bring out the bad part of Tennessee's Jekyll and Hyde act.
Prediction: Michigan Wolverines
No. 5 Arizona (25) over No. 12 Memphis (85)
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With the nation's most efficient scorer, Derrick Williams, leading the charge, the Arizona Wildcats take on the vastly overrated Memphis Tigers.
Even though Memphis boasts name recognition among the casual college basketball fans, it would not have found itself included in the field if it hadn't fought its way to the Conference USA title with a 67-66 comeback win over UTEP.
Arizona is no UTEP, as the Wildcats proved that they are the class of the Pac-10.
This game may not even be close.
Prediction: Arizona Wildcats
No. 4 Texas (4) over No. 13 Oakland (69)
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Texas is another one of those teams that is ridiculously underseeded, which means that I get to pull out another quote!
"According to kenpom.com (hopefully by now I've convinced you to go that site), Texas is the fourth-best team in the country.
"They have a great offense and the Longhorn's defensive efficiency is tops in the nation.
"Texas made it all the way to the finals of the Big 12 Tournament, where they lost to Kansas. Remember, the Jayhawks are a No. 1 seed.
"The Longhorns also went 27-7 and don't really have a single bad loss.
"Sounds like they should be given a better seed than a No. 4, right?"
Oakland, on the other hand, deserves just about what it got. The Golden Grizzlies have the No. 13 team in terms of offensive efficiency, but their defense comes in at 200th.
Keep in mind those numbers were generated by playing weak Summit League foes and an admittedly brutal non-conference schedule. Oakland has no shot at stopping the big Longhorns attack.
Prediction: Texas Longhorns
No. 11 Missouri (34) over No. 6 Cincinnati (23)
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Led by Marcus Denmon, the Missouri Tigers have a great offensive attack and a fairly good defense to boot. Cincinnati though prides itself on its defense, so that side of the game will clearly be the key component to this contest.
Both teams struggled during their final games leading up to March Madness, but the Bearcats aren't going to be able to forget about the 38-point shellacking they received at the hands of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Cincinnati didn't lose a single game out of conference this season, but Missouri will be its toughest test in that area yet. Don't expect for the Tigers to pass it.
Prediction: Missouri Tigers
No. 3 Connecticut (17) over No. 14 Bucknell (90)
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If Kemba Walker can put up big numbers during the Big East tournament and lead his Connecticut Huskies to an unprecedented championship that needed five wins in five days, I can't wait to see what he can do to the poor Bucknell Bison.
Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Walker single-handedly outscores Bucknell.
Does that mean I'm picking the Huskies here? Absolutely.
Prediction: Connecticut Huskies
No. 10 Penn State (39) over No. 7 Temple (38)
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After surprisingly advancing to the finals of the Big Ten tournament and avoiding embarrassment at the hands of the top overall seed, Penn State will look to keep its run going by beating the seventh-seeded Temple Owls.
At one point during the season, I thought Temple was the most underrated team in the country, but losses to Duquesne, Xavier, Duke and Richmond, plus the fact that overtime was needed to beat Massachusetts, changed my mind.
Talor Battle should be able to have his way with the Owls.
Prediction: Penn State Nittany Lions
No. 2 San Diego State (6) over No. 15 Northern Colorado (122)
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San Diego State has lost twice this season, both times to the BYU Cougars, while Brandon Davies was still there.
Other than that, the Aztecs beat everyone they've played and even got a bit of redemption against Jimmer Fredette and the Cougars in the finals of the Mountain West tournament.
Northern Colorado, even though its the best of the No. 15 seeds, will not become the second team to take down the Aztecs.
Prediction: San Diego State Aztecs
No. 1 Kansas (3) over No. 16 Boston University (169)
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Kansas is really good.
Boston University is not.
Kansas is a No. 1 seed.
Boston University is not.
Kansas is going to win.
Boston Unviersity is not.
Prediction: Kansas Jayhawks
No. 8 UNLV (22) over No. 9 Illinois (20)
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Could this be the game where UNLV's star senior Tre'Von Willis finally becomes known for something other than controversy?
After choking a woman this past summer and saying that he wouldn't vote for Jimmer Fredette as the player of the year, Willis needs a chance to prove that he's a great basketball player and not just a trouble-maker.
This tight game against Illinois is that chance.
Illinois has all the potential in the world, but the Illini have been unable to win back-to-back games since January 2nd and January 6th. They won't get an opportunity to do so in the big dance if they fall to the team that just lost by two points to San Diego State.
Prediction: UNLV Runnin' Rebels
No. 12 Richmond (46) over No. 5 Vanderbilt (32)
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You see that look on the face of Richmond senior Justin Harper? It's a look of sheer, unadulterated bliss.
It's the look that was present after winning the Atlantic 10 tournament by 13 points against Dayton, the Spiders' seventh win in a row.
It's the look that will be there again if Richmond can pull of an upset against the Vanderbilt Commodores.
That could very well happen if Richmond uses its experience to shut down John Jenkins for two halves. Vanderbilt relies heavily upon its top scorer, but Richmond is a good defensive squad and plays tough man-to-man defense.
You always want to pick at least one No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed and this is a good option.
Prediction: Richmond Spiders
No. 4 Louisville (12) over No. 13 Morehead State (95)
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I want to pick Morehead State in this matchup, I really do. But I just can't.
As amazing as Kenneth Faried is at rebounding the ball, Morehead State simply isn't that good of a basketball team.
Louisville is and should have no trouble handling this future Dennis Rodman. After beating Marquette and Notre Dame in the Big East tournament, the Cardinals got Kemba-ed by Connecticut, but don't let that take away from how impressive their late season success has been.
It will continue for at least one more round.
Prediction: Louisville Cardinals
No. 11 USC (44)/VCU (84) over No. 6 Georgetown (31)
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After USC beats VCU in the real first round of the tournament, it'll move on to play the Hoyas of Georgetown. Just trust me on that part, but keep in mind that if VCU scores an upset, I'm changing this pick.
The Trojans are headed up while the Hoyas are headed down.
USC will be coming off a five-point loss to the Arizona Wildcats in the Pac-10 tournament, but it's really stepped up their game lately, winning six of the seven games prior to that loss. Truthfully, the Trojans are happy just to get into March Madness and should play with enthusiasm and exuberance while they're still alive.
Georgetown is reeling after losing Chris Wright to a hand injury. He'll be back for the opening game, but we don't know how effective he'll be and how much adjustment will be necessary.
Without him, the Hoyas lost their last four games of the season, including a 17-point blowout against Connecticut in their first game of the Big East tournament.
Prediction: USC Trojans
No. 3 Purdue (8) over No. 14 St. Peter's (110)
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If you're looking to pick a No. 14 seed over a No. 3 seed, don't make it this one.
I have absolutely no idea how the Peacocks are going to stop E'Twaun Moore or JaJuan Johnson. St. Peter's might have the 20th-ranked team in terms of defensive efficiency, but it plays in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and didn't play too tough of a non-conference schedule.
St. Peter's doesn't even have a single contributor that checks in at over 6'7". That spells trouble.
Even more worrisome is the fact that the Peacocks' offensive efficiency is just No. 274 in the nation. Against a Purdue squad that prides itself on defensive play, that isn't a good thing either.
This is going to be the biggest blowout of the first round.
Prediction: Purdue Boilermakers
No. 10 Florida State (41) over No. 7 Texas A&M (44)
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When Chris Singleton was out with a foot injury, the Florida State Seminoles struggled mightily, but now it appears as though the defensive stopper will be back on the court for the opening round game against Texas A&M.
Over the course of the season, Florida State played incredible defense throughout and posted the second-best defensive efficiency number in the entire country. The Seminoles might have been tops if Singleton had remained healthy.
Texas A&M has had trouble putting the ball in the basket in recent weeks. The Aggies have lost three of their last five games and will be facing a stiff test this week.
Prediction: Florida State Seminoles
No. 2 Notre Dame (10) over No. 15 Akron (123)
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Please.
Don't pick Akron.
Unless you went to school there or do go to school there. Only then is it okay to select the Zips when you're filling out your bracket.
Honestly, you'd have to search for hours to find another reason to pick Notre Dame to lose in the first round. That's not a good use of your time when there are much more intriguing matchups to be thinking about.
Prediction: Notre Dame Fighting Irish
No. 1 Pittsburgh (5) over No. 16 UNC-Asheville (143)/Arkansas Little Rock (210)
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For the record, I think that UNC-Asheville will squeeze out a close win against Arkansas Little Rock.
I'd be willing to bet (if gambling on sports were legal of course) that'll be a more interesting game than the one that the winner will play against Pittsburgh.
We're running into that No. 1 vs. No. 16 seed problem again. Remember the answer?
Don't pick the latter to beat the former.
Prediction: Pittsburgh Panthers
No. 9 Old Dominion (52) over No. 8 Butler (54)
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This is another one of those games that I'm excited to watch simply because I really don't have any idea what's going to happen.
Could the Butler Bulldogs begin another run by using their grit and determination to take over the Old Dominion squad? Absolutely.
But at the same time, could the Monarchs pound the ball inside and win the rebounding battle by so much that they win by double-digits? Absolutely.
Both teams are hot right now. Old Dominion has won 17 of its last 19 games and the two losses both came to tournament teams (VCU and George Mason). Butler, meanwhile, is on a nine-game winning streak.
Both schools took home the trophies at the end of their respective conference tournaments.
Anything could happen, but my gut tells me to go with the Monarchs.
Prediction: Old Dominion Monarchs
No. 12 Utah State (16) over No. 5 Kansas State (29)
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A vastly underrated No. 12 seed against a somewhat overrated No. 5 seed?
Sign me up please!
Here's what I wrote previously about the Aggies, since it's still very appropriate: "So the Aggies of Utah State went 30-3, winning the WAC Championship in the process and only losing to Idaho, Georgetown and BYU.
"That should be the beginning of a very impressive résumé, but the committee didn't see it that way. In fact, the members only chose to give the Aggies a No. 12 seed and a first-round matchup with the Kansas State Wildcats.
"Just to give you a comparison, Ken Pomeroy has Utah State as the 17th-best team in the country, meaning that they should be a No. 5 seed.
"But hey, you're supposed to pick a No. 12 seed to beat a No. 5 seed, so maybe you'll be picking Utah State either way."
Tai Wesley and Utah State should allow the Kansas State Wildcats to have just one more disappointment in a season that has been full of them.
Away from the Octagon of Doom, it may not be so necessary to Fear the Beard.
The one problem with picking Utah State? It means that we won't get to see glares and stares from mercurial head coach Frank Martin for more than one game.
Prediction: Utah State Aggies
No. 13 Belmont (18) over No. 4 Wisconsin (9)
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And now you've gotten to my biggest upset pick of the tournament, which happens to come in the game I'm most excited to watch in the first round (not including the Georgia-Washington game, but that's for an entirely different reason).
The Belmont Bruins are no slouches. Sure, they play in the Atlantic Sun and literally haven't beaten a single good team, but they've beaten the teams they've played by so much that they still come in at No. 18 on Ken Pomeroy's strength of schedule-adjusted rankings.
Belmont is on a 12-game winning streak and is one of the most balanced teams in the country. Eleven players on the team log quality minutes, and they can shoot threes as well as anyone in the tournament.
Wisconsin is a great basketball team and has one of the nation's most efficient offenses. Jon Leuer and Jordan Taylor are two of my favorite players in the country, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Badgers make a deep March run.
But sometimes you have to go with your gut and pick the upset. This is one of those times.
When I wrote about the Bruins in my underrated/overrated article, this is what I said: "At 30-4, Belmont deserves some respect. Especially after winning their conference championship game by 41 points. Now granted, it was the Atlantic Sun Conference Championship against North Florida, but still, that's an impressive feat.
"Belmont has one bad loss on the year, a nine-point defeat at Lipscomb. Their other three losses came at the hands of Tennessee (twice) and Vanderbilt.
"But this team is absolutely incredible and needs to be more well known. One of my best friends and I were trying to figure out where they should be seeded and we settled around No. 10 but agreed that they could play like a No. 5 seed.
The tournament selection committee thought they were only deserving of a No. 13 seed."
Prediction: Belmont Bruins
No. 6 St. John's (35) over No. 11 Gonzaga (27)
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Even without D.J. Kennedy, who will be sitting out with a torn ACL, the St. John's Red Storm should be able to take down an overhyped Gonzaga squad.
Replacing Kennedy's 10.4 points, 2.0 assists and 5.6 rebounds per game will be difficult, but St. John's has a ton of other seniors who should be up for the task. Plus, the motivation of winning for its third-leading scorer who has to miss out on his one chance to play in March Madness during his senior season will be invaluable.
Gonzaga, though, is no pushover as the Bulldogs are coming on strong as the season is drawing to a close. After it appeared as though the Bulldogs would be at home during the tournament, they kicked it into gear and reeled off nine wins in a row, including a surprising run to the West Coast Conference title.
However, the run will end at the hands of the giant killers themselves. St. John's has beaten great teams time after time and has proven to be in no way afraid of the big stage. After taking down Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Marquette, Pittsburgh and Villanova, Gonzaga could be next.
Prediction: St. John's Red Storm
No. 3 BYU (13) over No. 14 Wofford (86)
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Wofford is an underrated team, but Jimmer Fredette isn't going to let the Terriers pull off a first-round upset, even if he has to take half of his team's shots to do so.
But seriously, he's actually done that before and won't hesitate to. In fact, without Brandon Davies, he might need to.
Fredette is simply too talented a scorer to let BYU lose in the opening round of this tournament. It will be a close game, but the free throw shooting ability of the Cougars could be the straw that breaks the Terriers' back.
Watch this game so you can see him put up 50 again. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he did.
Prediction: BYU Cougars
No. 10 Michigan State (41) over No. 7 UCLA (53)
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After starting the season ranked No. 2 in the polls, Michigan State has uncharacteristically fallen off the charts and barely crept into the tournament.
The Spartans began the year 3-0 but have had a lot of trouble stringing together wins since then. Durrell Summers is going to have to pick up his game and help out Kalin Lucas and Draymond Green if the Spartans are going to have a shot.
On the other hand, traditional basketball powerhouse UCLA hasn't been too much better. Tyler Honeycutt is a bona fide NBA talent, but that's more than can be said about some of the players on the balanced Bruins squad.
UCLA usually plays good defense, but it is known to struggle when it comes to scoring points. Against a defensively-oriented Michigan State squad, that could spell trouble.
Prediction: Michigan State Spartans
No. 2 Florida (19) over No. 15 UC Santa Barbara (115)
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Chandler Parsons and the Florida Gators may not be deserving of a No. 2 seed, but they won't let that stop them from absolutely destroying the Gauchos of UC Santa Barbara.
It's funny to me that Florida received a No. 2 seed, despite being rated by Ken Pomeroy at No. 19, worse than BYU (No. 3 seed) , Belmont (No. 13 seed), Wisconsin (No. 4 seed), Utah State (No. 12 seed) and Pittsburgh (No. 1 seed).
All five of those teams are in the same region as Florida!
It's just absolutely ridiculous, but hey, what can you do?
You can pick Florida to win in the first round, that's what you can do.
Prediction: Florida Gators
East Predictions Recap
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No. 1 Ohio State over No. 16 UTSA/Alabama State
No. 8 George Mason over No. 9 Villanova
No. 5 West Virginia over No. 12 UAB/Clemson
No. 4 Kentucky over No. 13 Princeton
No. 6 Xavier over No. 11 Marquette
No. 3 Syracuse over No. 14 Indiana State
No. 10 Georgia over No. 7 Washington (UPSET ALERT)
No. 2 North Carolina over No. 15 Long Island
West Predictions Recap
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No. 1 Duke over No. 16 Hampton
No. 8 Michigan over No. 9 Tennessee
No. 5 Arizona over No. 12 Memphis
No. 4 Texas over No. 13 Oakland
No. 11 Missouri over No. 6 Cincinnati (UPSET ALERT)
No. 3 Connecticut over No. 14 Bucknell
No. 10 Penn State over No. 7 Temple (UPSET ALERT)
No. 2 San Diego State over No. 15 Northern Colorado
Southwest Predictions Recap
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No. 1 Kansas over No. 16 Boston University
No. 8 UNLV over No. 9 Illinois
No. 12 Richmond over No. 5 Vanderbilt (UPSET ALERT)
No. 4 Louisville over No. 13 Morehead State
No. 11 USC/VCU over No. 6 Georgetown (UPSET ALERT)
No. 3 Purdue over No. 14 St. Peter's
No. 10 Florida State over No. 7 Texas A&M (UPSET ALERT)
No. 2 Notre Dame over No. 15 Akron
Southeast Predictions Recap
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No. 1 Pittsburgh over No. 16 UNC-Asheville/Arkansas Little Rock
No. 9 Old Dominion over No. 8 Butler (UPSET ALERT)
No. 12 Utah State over No. 5 Kansas State (UPSET ALERT)
No. 13 Belmont over No. 4 Wisconsin (UPSET ALERT)
No. 6 St. John's over No. 11 Gonzaga
No. 3 BYU over No. 14 Wofford
No. 10 Michigan State over No. 7 UCLA (UPSET ALERT)
No. 2 Florida over No. 15 UC Santa Barbara
How the Seeds Fared
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No. 1 Seeds: 4-0
No. 2 Seeds: 4-0
No. 3 Seeds: 4-0
No. 4 seeds: 3-1
No. 5 seeds: 2-2
No. 6 seeds: 2-2
No. 7 seeds: 0-4
No. 8 seeds: 3-1
No. 9 seeds: 1-3
No. 10 seeds: 4-0
No. 11 seeds: 2-2
No. 12 seeds: 2-2
No. 13 seeds: 1-3
No. 14 seeds: 0-4
No. 15 seeds: 0-4
No. 16 seeds: 0-4

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