ACC Tournament 2011 Game-by-Game Schedule and Predictions
It's March Madness at long last!
We've made it through another season of college hoops, and now it's the most wonderful time of the year. This year, the ACC Tournament will take place in Greensboro, North Carolina, and it will feature a few of the best teams and a few bubble teams.
From Duke and North Carolina to Virginia Tech and Boston College, the ACC Tournament is a big deal to all of these teams, as it provides an automatic berth to the NCAA Tournament.
Because it is March, almost all of us sports fans will be filling out brackets for some type of tournament, and this one is devoted to the ACC Tournament.
With no further pretense, I give you a complete breakdown of the ACC Tournament and a breakdown of every game.
No. 8 Virginia vs. No. 9 Miami, Thursday 12:00 p.m.
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The opening game of the 2011 ACC Tournament will feature the Virginia Cavaliers and the Miami Hurricanes.
An eight seed versus a No. 9 should be difficult to call 90 percent of the time, but this one isn’t too hard.
Miami went 18-13 during the season, while Virginia went 16-14. The U might have a worse turnover margin than Virginia, but the Canes are better than them in rebound percentage, free-throw percentage, three-point percentage, field-goal percentage and points per game.
The Canes are led by junior guard Malcolm Grant, senior forward Adrian Thomas and sophomore center Reggie Johnson. Grant and Thomas are both great three-point shooters and can find ways to score, while Johnson is a beast on the boards, racking up nearly 10 rebounds per contest.
The Cavaliers are led by sophomore guard Jontel Evans, freshman guard Joe Harris, and junior center Assane Sene. Evans is a true point guard and the other two are pretty good players, but they are not quite as good or experienced as the Miami players.
Prediction: Miami wins by eight.
No. 5 Boston College vs. No. 12 Wake Forest, Thursday 2:00 p.m.
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During the Big Dance the five seeds have been upset by twelve seeds quite a lot. However, this is not the NCAA Tournament, and there will be no upset here.
BC went 19-11 during the season, while Wake Forest went a pitiful 8-23.
Wake Forest is better than BC in free throws, but unless this is the ugliest game in the last few seasons, there is almost no way the BC Eagles can lose.
BC is better in points per game, field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, rebounding margin, turnover margin and the list goes on and on.
Prediction: Boston College wins by twelve.
No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 NC State, Thursday 7:00 p.m.
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On the year, Maryland went 18-13, while NC State went 15-15.
Maryland leads NC State in points per game, field-goal percentage, rebound margin and turnover margin. NC State leads in free throw-percentage.
Even though the stats are in the Terps' favor, this one could be close. No. 7 seeds versus No. 10 seeds usually produce close games, and if the Terps’ free-throw percentage was worse, I would not expect them to hold off State.
As it turns out, Maryland and NC State have about the same free-throw percentage, and I do not believe that the Wolf Pack will be able to beat the Terps.
Prediction: Maryland wins by four.
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No. 6 Virginia Tech vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech, Thursday 9:00 p.m.
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Virginia Tech went 19-10 on the season, while Georgia Tech went 13-17.
VT leads GT in points per game, field-goal percentage, three-point percentage, free-throw percentage and rebound margin. GT leads VT in turnover margin.
VT might be better statistically, but every stat is very close. VT only scores 2.5 more points per game, and the biggest difference is that even though both teams shoot over 40 percent from three, VT shoots almost five percent better.
With all that said, March is the time for NCAA heroes, and Virginia Tech has their hero in Malcolm Delaney. Delaney averaged 18.8 point per game and his partner in crime Jeff Allen has racked up 15 double-doubles. Sure, GT has Iman Shumpert—who has a triple-double on the year—but he won’t be enough for the Yellow Jackets.
Remember Malcolm Delaney’s name during this tournament, and maybe during the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: Virginia Tech wins by 10.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 9 Miami, Friday 12:00 p.m.
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On the year, UNC went 24-6, while the U went 18-13.
North Carolina comes in on a seven-game win streak and after a huge win over Duke to clinch the ACC regular season title. UNC is possibly the hottest team in college hoops. They have stormed back from being unrated to claim the No. 7 ranking in the NCAA.
Unfortunately for the U, North Carolina’s Tyler Zeller, Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall are too hot to handle, and UNC should win this game in style.
Prediction: North Carolina wins by 14.
No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 5 Boston College, Friday 2:00 p.m.
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Clemson went 20-10 during the 2010-11 campaign, while BC went 19-11. This should be a typical No. 4 seed versus No. 5 seed matchup.
BC scores more points per game but Clemson shoots better from the field. These two stats ought to even out and this game should be pretty close.
If this game comes down to free throws, both teams shoot around 70 percent from the line, so that won’t be a deciding factor.
Both teams can shoot threes too, so that won’t decide it.
Just from my experience of watching these teams against common opponents, I would give the edge to BC. The Eagles seemed like a better team in big games than Clemson did, and while I expect this to come down to the wire, I give the slightest of edges to BC.
Prediction: Boston College wins by one in overtime; Clemson misses a last-second shot.
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 7 Maryland, Friday 7:00 p.m.
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The fifth-ranked Blue Devils went 27-4 this season—a bit better than Maryland’s 18-13.
While others will say that Duke will blow out the Terps by 20 and that they have no fear of the turtle, there is some doubt in my mind.
The two big things people take away from watching Duke over and over are that they rely on the three and they just can’t beat big men.
Against UNC and St. John’s, the Dukies just could not get anywhere near the key on offense and their shots weren’t falling for anyone. Maryland has the third-best rebounder in D-I in Jordan Williams.
Don’t get me wrong: I still expect Duke to win—but if they struggle with their threes, they could be in trouble.
Since Duke lost to UNC, I fully expect Coach K to work his guys and get them to knock down the threes in both practice and the game.
Prediction: Duke wins by nine.
No. 3 Florida State vs. No. 6 Virginia Tech, Friday 9:00 p.m.
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Florida State went 21-9 on the year, while VT went 19-10. Both teams proved that they can win at home by beating Duke, but the question is: Which one is better at a neutral site?
FSU is a great defensive team, and they proved that again and again. Sure, their offense isn’t good enough to give them a top 25 ranking—but their defense is one of the best in the nation.
Florida State shutdown Duke’s scoring effectively, but they knew exactly what they had to do with them.
Malcolm Delaney is a whole new monster to deal with. He is essentially a monster with two heads, where if you cut off one, two more grow in its place. Delaney can drive; he can shoot from outside; he can draw fouls; and he can create for others. With Virginia Tech’s backs to the wall, I fully expect Delaney to come up with 25 points and five assists in this one.
Prediction: Virginia Tech wins by four.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 5 Boston College, Saturday 1:00 p.m.
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At this point, UNC will have only played one game, and they will have blown out the U. The BC Eagles will have played two games in two days, and they will have had the excitement of escaping Clemson in overtime.
UNC probably would have been ahead early and had time to rest their starters a bit, while BC’s legs will be shot after over 80 minutes of tough basketball.
UNC has Barnes, Zeller and a new point guard in Marshall, under who they are 19-1.
UNC could play this game on cruise control and probably still win, as they're so hot and BC is so tired. For a semifinal, this really isn’t hard to call.
Prediction: North Carolina wins by 12.
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 6 Virginia Tech, Saturday 1:00 p.m.
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Duke will be in almost the same situation as UNC thus far. Duke will have beaten Maryland (although not as handily as UNC), and VT will have played two games in two days.
Duke lost to Virginia Tech in the regular season, but this time, they will be seeking revenge on a neutral court. We know that Coach K hates to lose—and so do his guys—so I expect they will want some revenge.
Malcolm Delaney will probably have played about 75 of 80 minutes in the two games, so he will be tired, and will therefore show a decline later in the game.
While VT is a bubble team, two wins in the tournament could be good enough to make it to the NCAAs—but they will obviously want to lock it up with the ACC title.
I think that Delaney will make a valiant effort, but they will fall short of beating Duke because Duke already has a bitter taste in their mouth, and they will want revenge for this game too.
Prediction: Duke wins by five; Virginia Tech still makes the NCAA tournament.
No. 1 North Carolina vs. No. 2 Duke, Sunday 1:00pm
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This game is for the title; this game is for bragging rights; this game could be the difference between a No. 1 seed and a No. 2 seed.
This game will feature a plethora of stars and potential heroes—Duke’s terrific tandem of Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler, and North Carolina’s threatening three in Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller and Kendall Marshall.
While these five guys should lead the way, there will also be the behind-the-scene guys who could decide it. These guys include Mason/Miles Plumlee, Seth Curry and Ryan Kelly for Duke, and John Henson, Leslie McDonald and Dexter Strickland for UNC.
The best rivalry in college hoops has another installment—and this is the most important one of the season.
Let’s take a look at the first two installments in the 2010-11 campaign. In the first meeting at Cameron Indoor Stadium, the Dukies trailed by 16 at the half but bounced back to beat the Heels by six. Duke could not hit shots at first—which led to their deficit—but they came out of the half and started knocking shots down.
In the second meeting at the Dean Smith Center, UNC went up by double digits in the first half again, and while Duke went on a run to start the second half, UNC still won in convincing fashion, 81 to 67.
What was the reason for Duke’s struggles against the Tar Heels? It was a culmination of poor shooting, a lack of presence inside and UNC’s ability to stop Duke from going on long runs.
UNC controlled the paint in both games, forcing Duke to shoot from deep and therefore miss those shots. This domination inside also led to them being able to score down low when necessary, which then limited Duke’s ability to go on runs.
UNC easily won the battle inside both times out, and there is no reason not to expect it again. This will lead to another Duke loss despite their desire for revenge.
I predict UNC to control the inside and Duke will make their shots at the end—but it will be too little too late, just as it was against St. John’s.
Prediction: North Carolina wins by seven; UNC and Duke are both No. 2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament
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