NCAA Tournament 2011: 6 Cinderellas That Could Make It to the Sweet 16
Nobody has the magical formula for putting together consistently accurate March Madness brackets.
When we choose all the No. 1 seeds to make a run to the Final Four, we end up getting burnt by a team like Northern Iowa who knocks out the tournament favorites in the second round.
When we try to find the next George Mason, we end up picking the wrong Cinderella story. There is no worse feeling then watching a trendy St. Mary's pick get bounced in the first round while everyone else had the foresight to see that Davidson would obviously reach the elite eight.
In my experience with filling out my bracket, I've found one useful trick to picking out who the upsets will be. I'm not guaranteeing that these upset picks will give your bracket success, but keep an eye out for these six mid-major squads who could make a run to the Sweet 16.
Pick Your Upset Teams Before You See the Bracket
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Let's say, for example, that it's March 2006 and you've been very impressed with the way George Mason has played all season long.
You look at their size with Jai Lewis and love the guard play of Lamar Butler and Tony Skinn. You are so confident that this team will make a run that you pound your fist on the desk and declare, "You know what, I'm taking this team all the way to the Final Four!"
Then you see the matchup unveiled on Selection Sunday and begin to doubt your pick.
There's no way George Mason can beat Michigan State, and even if it does, how is it going to beat North Carolina? Sadly, you go with the safe pick, and then weeks later you're left trying to convince your friends that you saw George Mason's run coming all along.
Don't get yourself into this position. Find your team the week before the brackets are unveiled and stick with your gut instinct.
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
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Oakland is no stranger to playing against top teams in tough environments.
In the last two seasons alone, Oakland has played at Kansas, at Ohio State, at Purdue, at Michigan State, at Syracuse and at Wisconsin. It even won at Tennessee earlier this season.
Oakland is not going to be surprised by the talent of the No. 3 or No. 4 seed that it will most likely play in the first round of the NCAA tournament. The Golden Grizzlies have seen some of the college basketball's best players firsthand in the last two seasons. They will not be intimidated next week.
On their roster, they have an NBA-bound center, Keith Benson, who gives the Golden Grizzlies 17.7 ppg and 10 rebounds a night. Benson is a seven-footer with above-average footwork and advanced moves around the basket that he has developed in his four-year college career. Benson scored 20 points on Kansas' Cole Aldrich last year and had 26 on Tennessee earlier this season.
What makes Oakland dangerous is its multiple offensive options. If teams shut down Benson, they still have to deal with Reggie Hamilton (17.1 ppg) and Will Hudson (12.5 ppg). They also have Larry Wright and Drew Valentine, who are capable of going off for 20 on various nights.
Oakland has won 18 of its last 19 games and has only had two bad losses on the season. Being blown out on the road at Ohio State and Purdue means Oakland is not a Final Four type of team, but riding the Golden Grizzlies for one or two wins this March is a wise decision.
Morehead State Eagles
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Senior leadership is what makes mid-major programs so dangerous in March.
Star players at big-time programs usually do not stick around for all four years. What this means is come tournament time, the No. 5 seed major conference teams are playing with 19- and 20-year-olds against a No. 12 seed mid-major full of 21- and 22-year-olds.
That extra year of experience on the court, being coached at practices and even time spent in the weight room leads to upsets in the first round.
Morehead State's two leading scorers, Kenneth Faried (17.6 ppg) and Demonte Harper (16.0 ppg), are both seniors and realize their time playing basketball is coming to an end. These guys are by no means locks to play in the NBA, which means they will attack March Madness with a sense of urgency unseen by NBA-bound players.
Morehead State also has senior guards Sam Goodman and junior guard Terrance Hill, who provide scoring and veteran leadership for the Eagles.
What could either hurt the Eagles or lead to matchup nightmares for opposing teams is Morehead State's lack of size. Faried is a strong 6'8", but after that the Eagles have a 6'7" freshman forward and then a bunch of 6'0' to 6'4" guards. The Eagles will be able to get out and run with anyone, but a half-court team with size could abuse Morehead State's front line.
Expect Faried and Harper to lead this team out of the first round.
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Belmont Bruins
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Thirty wins should never be overlooked.
The Belmont Bruins have not lost a game by over nine points all season long. They have won 21 out of their last 22 games and defeated North Florida in the conference championship by a ridiculous score of 87-46.
Belmont's defense is what will bother teams in the tournament. Out of their 34 games this season, the Bruins have allowed their opponents to score above 70 only nine times.
This team is solid at all positions. Down low they have Mick Hedgepeth and Scott Saunders, who combine for about 20 ppg and are both 6'10". Senior swingman and defensive specialist Jon House is 6'6" and will be able to guard any star small forward Belmont faces. Drew Hanlen is the team's distributor at the point guard, and their bench is incredibly deep.
Belmont is a team that you should feel confident about giving one win in the tournament, fairly confident taking to the Sweet 16 and even somewhat confident riding to the Elite Eight.
Old Dominion Monarchs
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You do not want your favorite team to be matched up with Old Dominion in the first round.
This team is full of talent, full of seniors and returns the core of a starting lineup that won a game in last year's NCAA tournament.
They will do it again.
The Monarchs have wins over Xavier, Richmond and Clemson. They also beat St. Peter's, which is now tournament bound. In conference play, they split with George Mason and held off a furious comeback from VCU in the conference championship.
At 27-6, the Monarchs are good enough to be a No. 6 or No. 7 seed but will probably come in as a No. 11 or No. 12.
Old Dominion may be the best team I have listed in this entire slideshow. Do not sleep on the Monarchs.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
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Gonzaga played a very difficult out-of-conference schedule. Their losses against Notre Dame, Kansas State and San Diego State are nothing to be ashamed of. Illinois and Memphis are not terrible losses either.
Gonzaga has wins over Xavier, at Baylor and at Marquette. They're riding a nine-game winning streak into the tournament and look to be playing their best basketball of the season at the right time.
Steven Gray should be able to lead this team out of the first round and challenge anybody in the second.
Don't get carried away with the Gonzaga pick, but one to two wins is very likely.
Butler Bulldogs
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If you didn't have Butler going to the finals last year, do not worry.
Not many people did.
However, the solution isn't to ride Butler all the way this year to make up for lost time. Butler is a good team, but it is not a magical team like last year.
What Butler does still have is Shelvin Mack and Matt Howard. These guys were crucial in last year's run as Gordon Hayward's sidekicks. This year, they are the leaders and go-to guys.
Butler will not be surprised or intimidated by the big stage. They've been here before.
This is a team who played Duke well earlier this season, only lost by two at Xavier and has won its last nine games. Butler may not be destined for the finals again, but I like them as a Sweet 16 pick.
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