March Madness 2011: What Do the Bubble Teams Need to Do to Make the Tournament?
We are now less than one week away from Selection Sunday, where the brackets for the 2011 NCAA Tournament will be released.
Out of the 68 teams to hear their name called on Sunday, 37 of them will be at-large bids. It may sound like a lot, but there are well more than 37 teams battling it out for spots in this year's big dance.
Regardless of what happens during conference tournament action this week, more than a few teams' bubbles will likely burst by the end of this weekend.
Here is a look at some of the teams who are inside that dreaded bubble, hoping not to see it burst before Sunday, and what they need to accomplish this week in order to make sure it does not.
The following takes a look at each team, as well as their overall and conference record, and also their RPI rating and strength of schedule.
Virginia Tech Hokies: 19-10 Overall, 9-7 ACC, RPI 63, SoS 96
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Is there ever a season where Seth Greenberg's Virginia Tech Hokies are not on the bubble?
They seem to be in this position almost every season, and they have no one to blame but themselves.
The Hokies beat Duke on a Saturday night that had people believing that they were all set. They followed that up with losses to Boston College and Clemson, which now has their status in jeopardy.
They play Georgia Tech in the first round of the ACC Tournament, and this game is clearly a must win. After that, they may also need to beat Florida State in round two.
If not, Virginia Tech may once again find themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.
Boston College Eagles: 19-11 Overall, 9-7 ACC, RPI 43, SoS 24
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Steve Donahue proved that he knows how to win in the NCAA Tournament. But at Boston College, he has to get there first.
The Eagles had a big win over Virginia Tech, and then destroyed Wake Forest to close out the regular season. They have a very respectable strength of schedule and RPI, but clearly needs to defeat the Demon Deacons again to begin the ACC Tournament to help solidify their chances.
Depending on how things play out, their second round battle against the Clemson Tigers could be the difference between who gets in and who gets left out of the NCAA Tournament.
Clemson Tigers: 20-10 Overall, 9-7 ACC, RPI 58, SoS 81
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Clemson is the third team battling it out for an at-large bid from the ACC, and they may still have to win one more game if they want to be asked to the dance.
The Tigers have a few bad losses, but also hold victories over Boston College, Florida State and Michigan.
They will possibly be facing Boston College again in the second round of the ACC Tournament, and the winner of that game could advance to the NCAA Tournament.
The loser can focus on baseball.
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Marquette Golden Eagles: 18-13 Overall, 9-9 Big East, RPI 65, SoS 29
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Buzz Williams is hoping to get his school as the 11th Big East team in the NCAA Tournament. It may not be as much of a lock as the analysts believe.
They have some great wins, including defeats over Connecticut, Notre Dame and West Virginia, and they really don't have any bad losses coming out of the Big East conference.
However, they are not safe. Not yet, at least.
With an opening round win against Providence, that could be enough. If they lose to the Friars, it would drop them to 18-14 and give them a losing record against conference foes.
Win and they should be in. Lose and they will be sweating it out on Sunday.
Illinois Fighting Illini: 19-12 Overall, 9-9 Big Ten, RPI 38, SoS 16
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Even with some of those impressive numbers, the Illini are far from a lock.
They have a lot of tough losses down the stretch, and their recent struggles will not go unnoticed by the committee.
Perhaps their saving grace is a victory in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge at the beginning of the season over North Carolina. Luckily for Illinois, the Tar Heels were not led by Kendall Marshall at point guard, but rather a whiny quitter who left the team in February.
The Illini take on Michigan in the second round of the Big Ten Tournament. Similar to the ACC matchup between Clemson and Boston College, a berth could be on the line.
Michigan State Spartans: 17-13 Overall, 9-9 Big Ten, RPI 48, SoS 10
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How is this even possible?
This goes to show that preseason rankings are useless, as the Spartans were ranked second in the country to start the season.
When they fall, they fall hard.
Their strength of schedule helps, but losing to so many of those tough teams will not get them in on name alone.
They have to play—and beat—Iowa in the first round of the Big 10 Tournament. They may also have to knock off Purdue in the next round if a few small schools receive automatic bids this week.
Michigan Wolverines: 19-12 Overall, 9-9 Big Ten, RPI 55, SoS 21
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Big Blue has something going for them that the other teams in the conference do not. They are playing their best basketball of the season right now.
By defeating Michigan State this past weekend, that could be enough. But a win over Illinois would solidify their chances.
Coloroado Buffaloes: 19-12 Overall, 8-8 Big 12, RPI 76, SoS 82
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I'm not quite sure if the Buffaloes have enough time left to make their case.
Yes, they beat Texas and Kansas State (twice). But they played a pathetic non-conference schedule and own some very bad losses.
The bottom line is that they will most likely have to defeat the Wildcats for a third time, provided they get past Iowa State in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.
Washington Huskies: 20-10 Overall, 11-7 Pac 10, RPI 47, SoS 69
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The Huskies have done almost everything they can to actually place themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.
This is a team, led by Isaiah Thomas, that could do a lot of damage if they could just play well enough to earn an at-large bid.
They just don't play against quality teams, although they cannot be faulted for that fact.
If they beat Washington State in the Pac-10 Tournament, they should be fine.
Lose to them for a third time and they do not deserve to play any further this season.
USC Trojans: 18-13 Overall, 10-8 Pac 10, RPI 69, SoS 50
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The Trojans have a few quality wins and late season momentum, and that is why they even find themselves on this list.
Yet as good as some of their wins are, their bad losses are ten times worse.
They need to defeat Cal on Thursday. Their next game in the Pac-10 Tournament would be against Arizona, and they most likely have to win that as well.
Without beating both of those teams, they can turn their attention to seeing if Lane Kiffin says anything foolish.
Georgia Bulldogs: 20-10 Overall, 9-7 SEC, RPI 37, SoS 33
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The Bulldogs are close. So close that they may already be one of the 37 at-large teams.
They have some good wins, no real bad losses, and quality RPI and strength of schedule numbers.
Losing to Alabama to close the season did not help. But if they can defeat Auburn, and then at least put up a good game against Alabama, they should be able to relax a little on Selection Sunday.
Alabama Crimson Tide: 20-10, Overall, 12-4 SEC, RPI 81, SoS 147
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Although Alabama has a better record than Georgia in the conference, they need to win at least one more game due to some of their bad losses.
They may need to beat Kentucky after that.
If they lose the first game, forget about an invite.
If they beat Georgia (or Auburn) and then lose to Kentucky, they will be sweating it out on Sunday.
Richmond Spiders: 24-7 Overall, 13-3 Atlantic 10, RPI 54, SoS 165
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Richmond caught Purdue when they were figuring out how to play together back in November. That win has only looked better with each passing month, but the Spiders have not climbed into the NCAA Tournament quite yet.
They will await the winner of Rhode Island and St. Louis in the first round of the Atlantic 10 Tournament, and they do not necessarily need a victory over the winner of that game.
Of course, it would not hurt to win that game as well.
If they can win that game, and then play well against Temple, most likely, they should hear their name called on Sunday.
Butler Bulldogs: 22-9 Overall, 13-5 Horizon, RPI 39, SoS 74
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Last year's Cinderella team is hoping to at least have an opportunity to see if the slipper fits again this season.
They suffered a bad loss to Youngstown State and actually lost five conference games this season.
The Bulldogs also hold a quality win over Florida State, but they can still earn an automatic bid by defeating Milwaukee tonight in the Horizon League conference tournament. If that happens, they are automatically entered.
If they lose, it may not be enough to knock them out of the at-large bid pool.
Nine straight wins should be enough to get their dance card punched, regardless of what happens tonight.
St. Mary's Gaels: 24-8 Overall, 13-3 WCC, RPI 45, SoS 122
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Start praying.
They entered the West Coast Conference as the top seed, although they certainly did not go in with much momentum.
Having reached the finals may have been enough, but losing to Gonzaga gave the Zags the automatic bid that the Gaels may have needed.
They can still sneak in, but they cannot do so by winning any more games.
Sometimes, it is the waiting that is the hardest part, and they have almost a week in between their last game and Selection Sunday.
They beat St. John's earlier this season, so they are hoping the Red Storm can make a run in the Big East Tournament so their victory against them looks even better.
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