
NCAA Tournament Brackets: 15 Bubble Teams That Need a Conference Tourney Win
Five days and counting down until Selection Sunday is here.
There are a number of teams around college basketball currently sitting on that bubble and needing a big win or two in their respected conference tournaments in order to lock up one of those final spots in the field of 68.
But who, we ask, are those bubble teams heading into conference tournament action?
After breaking it down, I believe that 23 teams have already solidified themselves as "at-large locks" to get in the tournament. That means that there should be around 14 available "at-large" bids, with around 20 teams that currently sit on that bubble as we speak.
Let's break this down and take a look at 15 bubble teams that need at least one conference tournament win in order to make it to the Big Dance.
15. Alabama
1 of 15
Tournament Resume: [20-10 (12-4), RPI: 81, SOS: 147]
Alabama is in a position where they desperately need to win at least one game to even be involved in the conversation of making it to the NCAA tournament. In order to do that, Alabama will likely have to defeat Georgia, another team that is fighting for their tournament lives.
The interesting thing here is that with a 12-4 conference record, you would think that this team would be a lock. But before the SEC season started, Alabama had losses to the likes of St. Peter's and Iowa. They have a terrible RPI and even worse strength of schedule.
There is a lot of work to be done here if this team hopes to be dancing come next week.
14. USC
2 of 15
Tournament Resume: [18-13 (10-8), RPI: 69, SOS: 50]
This has been an interesting year for the Trojans.
This is a team that has beaten some of the nation's best, with wins over Tennessee, Texas, UCLA and Arizona. But then on the other hand, the Trojans have some brutal loses to the likes of Rider, TCU, Bradley and Oregon twice.
They match up against Cal on Thursday night, and a win is needed to even be in the conversation. If they beat Cal, USC would then face Arizona in the next round. A win there would likely give the Trojans a spot in the NCAA tournament. But by no means is that an easy task.
13. Nebraska
3 of 15
Tournament Resume: [19-11 (7-9), RPI: 77, SOS: 60]
Nebraska has some work to do this week and they have put themselves in an extremely difficult position heading into the Big 12 conference tournament.
The Huskers' upset win over Texas put them in the bubble conversation, but then two straight losses to Kansas State and at Iowa State put them right back on the outside looking in. This past week, Nebraska beat Missouri, which was a huge win, and then lost to Colorado in the regular season finale, which set them back again.
Nebraska needs to beat Oklahoma State in the first round Wednesday, and then they will get a matchup with No. 1-seeded Kansas. If Nebraska can find a way to get an upset win there, they should be in. But keep in mind, that's a big "if."
12. Virginia Tech
4 of 15
Tournament Resume: [19-10 (9-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 96]
Talk about a team that knows how to play themselves out of the tournament.
After Tech's huge upset victory over Duke last Saturday, everyone felt like Seth Greenberg's club was a lock to get in on the Madness. But after closing out the season with loses to Boston College and Clemson, two other ACC bubble teams, the Hokies' chances do not look too hot right now.
As it stands, Virginia Tech is right on the bubble yet again, which means they need a victory over Georgia Tech in the opening round of the ACC tourney. If they win that game, they will have a matchup against Florida State, who will likely be playing without their best player, Chris Singleton.
One win keeps this team on the bubble; two wins looks a whole lot better.
11. Clemson
5 of 15
Tournament Resume: [20-10 (9-7), RPI: 58, SOS: 81]
Two weeks ago, Clemson was an afterthought for the NCAA tournament. But now, with a strong finish and a 9-7 conference record and the 58th RPI, the Tigers are right on the bubble, and one win in the conference tournament would be beyond huge for this team.
After Saturday's victory over Virginia Tech, Clemson secured a first round ACC Tournament bye, which is huge for the Tigers. That means that they will get the winner of the Boston College vs. Wake Forest game. Assuming that is Boston College, the winner of that game will likely be in and the loser very well could be left out.
We shall wait and see if this Clemson team has what it takes to punch their ticket to the Big Dance.
10. Marquette
6 of 15
Tournament Resume: [18-13 (9-9), RPI: 65, SOS: 29]
Could it be possible that 11 teams from the Big East get in the NCAA tournament?
Yes it can. In fact, 10 teams are pretty much locks, and the one team that remains on the bubble is Marquette.
Marquette could probably have punched its ticket with a win over Cincinnati last week, but the Golden Eagles dropped the ball on that one, and then got blown out by a below-average Seton Hall team the following week.
Marquette's current resume features a 9-9 conference record and wins over West Virginia, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Connecticut. Marquette plays Providence tonight (Tuesday) and needs a win to stay in contention for the NCAA tournament. Anything beyond that would only help.
9. Boston College
7 of 15
Tournament Resume: [19-11 (9-7), RPI: 43, SOS: 24]
When looking at this resume, that 19-11 record certainly doesn't stand out, but the 43rd-ranked RPI and 24th-ranked strength of schedule are why the Eagles are in the conversation to make the Big Dance.
Boston College is a team that doesn't have any exceptional wins this season, but its season finale victory over Virgina Tech was a huge one, especially because it knocked a bubble team down a little.
If and when the Eagles beat Wake Forest in the opening round of the ACC tournament, they will get that matchup against Clemson. Like I mentioned earlier, the winner of that game should be in. The loser might not be as fortunate.
8. Colorado
8 of 15
Tournament Resume: [19-12 (8-8), RPI: 76, SOS: 82]
Colorado is a team that has been doing all the right things as of late in order to get one of those final bids into the field of 68.
The Buffaloes beat Nebraska in their Big 12 finale, which was big because the Huskers are a team on the bubble as well. But, the nice thing for this team is that they have more big wins—over Texas, Missouri and a sweep of Kansas State—than most of the other teams on this list.
Colorado has a first round game vs. Iowa State, and with a win, they would set a second round date with Kansas State. If this team wins one game, they will stay where they are, on the bubble. But with two wins, they should be a go for dancing in March.
7. Georgia
9 of 15
Tournament Resume: [20-10 (9-7), RPI: 37, SOS: 33]
The deal here with Georgia is that they have a solid 9-7 record in league play, but the SEC really isn't that strong of a conference this year.
They haven't loss to anyone all that bad, which makes this resume look pretty good. But on other hand, they really haven't beaten anyone all that good.
This is one of those teams that is very difficult to tell whether they will be in or out come Selection Sunday. Either way, we can all agree that their likely matchup with Alabama in the SEC tournament should decide if they are in or out.
6. Michigan State
10 of 15
Tournament Resume: [17-13 (9-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 10]
What has happened to Tom Izzo's Michigan State team this year?
The Spartans were ranked No. 2 in the country in most preseason polls heading into the season. But now with the regular season coming to an end, and the conference tournament set to start later this week, the Spartans are in an unfamiliar position of having to play for their tournament lives.
Michigan State does not have a great history in Big Ten tournament play, which makes their first-round matchup against Iowa a huge game. The Spartans crushed the Hawkeyes when the two teams met up in East Lansing last week, but if Sparty wants to get back to the dance, they will have to do much of the same when the two teams meet up on Thursday.
If Izzo's club gets past Iowa, which they should, they will have a much-anticipated matchup with Purdue on Friday.
With a win over Iowa, the Spartans should be in. With a win over Purdue, the Spartans will be in.
5. Michigan
11 of 15
Tournament Resume: [19-12 (9-9), RPI: 55, SOS: 21]
The Michigan Wolverines are one of those teams that truly are playing their best basketball at just the right time.
Michigan closed out the regular season by winning six of their final eight games, included a much-needed win over in-state rival Michigan State in the Big 10 finale. That was a huge victory because it was against another bubble team with a strong RPI and SOS, and because it provided a profile boost heading into Selection Sunday.
With that said, the Wolverines face Illinois in a 4 vs. 5 matchup in the Big Ten tournament. The winner of that game should be in, no questions asked. The loser is going to have to sit close and hold their breath while watching the tournament selection show.
4. Richmond
12 of 15
Tournament Resume: [24-7 (13-3), RPI: 54, SOS: 165]
With a 24-7 record, and 13-3 clip in the Atlantic 10, you would think that the Spiders should be a lock to get into the field of 68. But this just goes to show that when you are a team that doesn't play anybody good, you aren't going to be considered a lock when it comes to Selection Sunday.
At this point, all the Spiders can do is help themselves by having a good showing in their conference tournament.
As long as Chris Mooney's team avoids an early tournament loss to the winner of Rhode Island-Saint Louis, the Spiders should receive a bid. But if they somehow lose that game, this potential Cinderella team could get left behind.
3. Illinois
13 of 15
Tournament Resume: [19-12 (9-9), RPI: 38, SOS: 16]
As it stands right now, three teams are a shoo-in from the Big Ten, and looking at things, Illinois has the best chance at being the next team to be a "for-sure" in.
Illinois finished the season 19-12 and 9-9 in the Big Ten, but they did lose nine of their final 15 games, which does not bode well for their tournament resume.
Everyone has pegged Illinois to be a shoo-in for the tournament, by if they lose to Michigan in their first game of the Big Ten tournament, will that be enough to put this once presumed at-large bid in jeopardy? Either way, that should be one heck of an opening Big Ten matchup. That's for sure.
2. Tennessee
14 of 15
Tournament Resume: [18-13 (8-8), RPI: 35, SOS: 2]
At first glimpse, Tennessee does not have the type of resume that stands out by any means. In fact, with an average 18-13 record, it doesn't look like they even belong in the NCAA tournament conversation.
But when you do some research, you will find that Tennessee has perhaps the best array of victories of any of the bubble teams still alive for a bid. The Volunteers have eight wins over teams with top-50 RPI ratings.
Assuming that Bruce Pearl's Vols don't lose to Arkansas on Thursday, they should be in the tournament with no doubts in mind. But a second loss to the Razorbacks could put this team's chances at risk on Selection Sunday. Chances are that this team will be dancing at the end of this week.
1. Washington
15 of 15
Tournament Resume: [20-10 (11-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 69]
The Washington Huskies are a team that has looked to be on the verge of locking up an at-large big all season long, but it sure looks like they have done their best to avoid that berth for the past month here.
After closing out the first half of the season with a 15-4 record, the Huskies went on to lose six of their last 11 games and put themselves on a small bubble, but a bubble nonetheless. The Huskies had a chance to pop that bubble this past Saturday, but they ended their regular season with an ugly 62-60 home loss to USC.
Washington draws Washington State in their Pac-10 tournament opener on Thursday. If they win that game, they are almost sure to be in. But another untimely loss could make Selection Sunday a whole lot more suspenseful for this Washington team.

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