NBA MVP Race: Ranking the Top 10 Candidates
As the season enters it's final quarter, the MVP race is in it's final stretch as well. I've been monitoring the race through season with monthly updates. My criteria has been a combination of individual performance, team success and media support.
The general media perception, whether it's accurate or not, is a crucial aspect of these predictions because, in the end, it's the media that casts the votes.
As the season winds down, I'll be focusing more on the standings as well as the "valuable" aspect of the award as those are the things that the voters will be watching.
10: LaMarcus Aldridge
1 of 10
Previously: Unranked
LaMarcus Aldridge has done a tremendous job of carrying his team through injuries. He's averaging career highs in points, rebounds, blocks and steals. The Western Conference Player of the Month for February isn't going to catch the front-runners for the MVP award, but he might win the award for Most Improved Player. He's certainly done enough to earn his way onto the top list.
9: Rajon Rondo
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Previous: Unranked
The Boston Celtics own the Eastern Conference's best record. The problem is that it's hard to identify the Most Valuable Player on a team with four All-Stars. Rajon Rondo, though, is the player that runs this highly-tuned offense, and you have to appreciate his suffocating defense on LeBron James that helped the Celtics complete their Heat sweep. It's enough to get him on the top 10 list, but it's hard to imagine Rondo getting serious consideration surrounded by so many Hall of Famers.
8: Chris Paul
3 of 10
Previous: 2
Chris Paul is the reason for the Hornets success. With Paul it's not so much a matter of how valuable he is. He's very much a part of the conversation for the most valuable to his team. He leads the NBA in win shares. Hopefully he won't miss many games after his concussion last night because the Hornets are going to struggle without him.
Having said that, his team just isn't on the level of the MVP front runners. The Hornets aren't even a top four team in the Western Conference and they are third in their own division. That makes it hard to put him any higher than eighth in the rankings.
7: Dwyane Wade
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Previously: Unranked
LeBron James is taking all the heat for the Heat's troubles in game-winning shot situations. However, Dwyane Wade isn't doing any better. He is 0-for-5 on shots to win or tie, so that isn't clinching him an MVP. His "the world is against us" attitude isn't going to garner any sympathy votes for MVP either.
Wade has gotten more of a free pass for the smoke machine, seven-ring celebration than fellow Heatles Chris Bosh and LeBron James, but the self pity is unpalatable and now his image is taking a hit too. An MVP is not a realistic hope for Wade at this point.
6: Kevin Durant
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Previously: 5
The Durantula cooled off a bit after a smoking hot January. His February splits are bit down to 26.8. It doesn't help that he's not having much success against the NBA's elite teams either. Against the Bulls, Celtics, Lakers, Mavericks and Spurs, the Thunder are 2-12.
In order to be the MVP, you have to show you can beat the best teams in the NBA and the Thunder aren't on that level yet. Until Oklahoma City brings some defense to the team, they won't beat the best teams, no matter how much offensive prowess Durant and teammate Russell Westbrook have. As the team leader, Durant has to commit to the defense first, then the team will follow.
5: Kobe Bryant
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Previous: 6
Kobe Bryant has been moving up the all-time scoring list all season but he hasn't really been a part of the MVP discussion because the Lakers had been getting beat more often than expected. That might be changing, though. The Lakers are 7-0 since the All-Star break an and they are playing like it's time to get tuned up for the playoffs. He might get some play in the MVP conversation if they continue dominating post-break.
The only problem is that the Lakers turnaround doesn't seem to have anything to do with Kobe turning it on. In fact, his post All-Star splits, if anything, are a bit lower than before it. The Lakers run appears to have more to do with Andrew Bynum getting healthy and the defense returning to championship form. Kobe could wiggle into the conversation, but for right now it doesn't look like he has a realistic chance. The players around him are too good. While he's the unquestioned team leader, the Lakers could compete at a very high level without him.
4: LeBron James
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Previous: 4
Ten days ago, I would have moved James up to No. 1 as there was a lot of talk about how he's the best player in the league and how the tide was starting to turn in his direction. Now, however, it's swung in the other direction.
The MVP goes to a player who helps his team win at an elite level. When it comes time to vote, voters are going to see all those missed game-winning shot opportunities replayed in their heads. LeBron James' clutch shooting is literally the difference between Miami being a one seed and a three seed right now. If things don't turn around soon, Orlando could catch them for that.
3: Dirk Nowitzki
8 of 10
Previous: 7
The best argument for Dirk is how much better Dallas is with him than without him. With Dirk, the Mavericks are 43-10. Without him, they are 2-7. The problem with that argument is that it penalizes players who don't get injured. We don't know how Orlando would be without Dwight or Chicago without Rose, but we can ascertain pretty reasonably that it would hurt.
The other argument with Dirk is that the numbers aren't great. With 22.9 points and 6.6 rebounds, he doesn't crack the top 10 in any of the major statistical categories. MVP doesn't mean best player, but it's hard to give it to someone who some argue isn't even top 10.
2: Dwight Howard
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Previous: 3
Right now he is hands down the most dominant center in the league, both offensively and defensively. He's elevated his offensive game to a new level. With 22.4 points and 13.9 rebounds he certainly has the stats to support his argument.
On the value side of things, the team has changed around him and continued to win. The Magic are an elite team and it is not hard to draw a straight line from that fact to Dwight Howard.
There are a couple of reasons that Howard is not first. First, he's got a problem with his temper and collecting technicals. He'll be missing tonight's game as a result of getting his 16th on the season and the suspension that comes with that.
Second, his free-throw shooting is atrocious. Hack-a-Howard is part of the defensive strategy teams employ now, and that factors into the whole temper thing too. He gets frustrated with the daily mauling he takes and that gets him technicals. Because he can't make teams pay when he's at the line, it becomes a spiraling situation.
Other players have won MVPs in spite of horrible averages from the stripe. Shaquille O'Neal and Wilt Chamberlain both did, but they weren't getting suspensions for having difficulty controlling their tempers. Missing games can mean lost games and that hurts a players' value.
1: Derrick Rose
10 of 10
Previous: 1
He's the only player in the top 10 in both scoring and assists. That particular combination has him accounting for 45.6 percent of the Bulls field goals and that's the highest percentage of any player for his respective team in the NBA. Statistical dominance: check.
He has led the Bulls to 10-consecutive wins against the teams that are presently the top four seeds in the two conferences. On the season he has three wins against James' Heat, two wins against Howard's Magic, two wins against the Mavericks and one win against Kobe's Lakers. Of the top five candidates for MVP, Rose has the best record against fellow candidates. Intangibles: check.
In both the NBA.com rankings and the ESPN rankings, Rose is ranked first. Additionally, a Sports Nation poll had Rose getting over 80 percent of the votes nationally and that was before the Bulls took back-to-back wins in Orlando and Miami. Media and popular perception: check.
At this point in the season, if the Bulls retain the second seed, then the award is Rose's to lose. He started the year saying he saw no reason why he couldn't win the MVP. Now neither can anyone else. He's carried the Bulls to a far better-than-expected record, in spite of the injuries to teammates Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah.
The last player to win the MVP without having received a vote before was Dave Covens in 1972-73 season. No other veteran player has accomplished this, though Wes Unseld and Wilt Chamberlain both won the award as rookies. He would also break LeBron James' record for youngest MVP in league history.
